
There was a little good and mostly bad coming from the No Laying Up and Walk It In crews at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last week. Let’s walk that back and then get to our preview of THE PLAYERS!

 the Draft King increased his season lead a bit last week by hitting a juicy top 10 bet on Megan Khang in the LPGA Drive On Championship at +550. That was his only win of the week as he missed on three other plays on the ladies and a Will Zalatoris Top 5 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

 hitched his wagon to Matthew Fitzpatrick and although his win bet didn’t pan out, he did squeak out a top 10 winner thanks to a few bogeys on 18 from other golfers down the stretch. Soly was also on Zalatoris with TC, but played more conservative with a top 20 and it paid off for him. Adam Long top 40 and Marc Leishman top 20 bets did NOT pay off for him, however.

 is trying to remain positive despite early season struggles and it’s very commendable. At the Arnold Palmer Invitational he managed one win on Fitzpatrick to finish in the top 10, but lost all of his other plays - Leishman top 20, Knox top 20, Casey top 5 and Reed to win. The beluga will breach, we think!

, who both went 0-5 last week. Randy’s new found “institutional knowledge” of the LPGA Tour didn’t help him win bets as he missed a matchup parlay, Lexi Thompson to win and In Gee Chun group winner at the Drive On Championship. Francesco Molinari didn’t show up for him on the men’s side either and Lee Westwood was the top Englishman, NOT Paul Casey. DJ tried to bring Rickie Fowler back to life, but that didn’t go as planned and neither did his other bets. He lost a PGA and LPGA matchup parlay, Fitzpatrick top 5 and Tyrell Hatton to win.

For the Walk It In guys, Jeff squeaked out a positive week and it would have been better if he had more confidence in his guy Corey Conners! Mark had a Neil-esque week, losing almost everything he bet on, but man-O-man could it have been better with a little luck. Hatton and Lanto Griffin BOTH bogeyed their 72nd hole and finished T21 to lose the top 20 bets and Hovland over DeChambeau looked great after Friday and then, welp.

We now turn our attention to TPC Sawgrass and THE PLAYERS, one year to the week since COVID-19 forced a cancellation of this beautiful tournament after one round. As expected, almost every top player in the world is in this field and there are a lot of plays on our cards!

If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Mark goes first for THE PLAYERS, being furthest from the hole last week.

: If my approach has sounded similar the last three weeks, that’s because The Concession, Bay Hill and TPC Sawgrass are all so similar in setup for the most part - at or longer than 7,200 yards with narrow fairways, longer rough and small Bermuda greens. I’ll be looking at approach/GIR stats as well as Bermuda-specific putting. Driving accuracy seems to be important when looking at the history here as well.

: The Florida swing hits the crescendo with the visit to TPC Sawgrass, and this is after golf went dark in 2020 after the first round here. We have so much course history to go off of here, but I’m going to focus on three things first. I want the best ball strikers I can get so SG: Approach is top priority for me this week combined with guys who have really good form in the last month. I’m also going to look for some accurate drivers thanks to the datagolf guys showing that on this Pete Dye course you need it. Course history certainly factors in, so I’ll try to eye guys with at least a little experience here.

I’m backing Jeff’s favorite Canadian this week after a 3rd place finish at the API. He has eight top 25’s in his last 11 events and in his last 16 rounds he ranks 2nd in this field in SG: T2G and 6th in SG: Approach. He’s also a much better putter on Bermuda and finished last week 13th in the field in putting.

Paul Casey Top Former Arizona State Player (+250) - 1 unit

This will sound like a fade of Jon Rahm, but I actually think both can/will play well this week - I’m just betting on Casey to play a little better. He doesn’t have the best history here, but he’s playing extremely well a T10 last week and five straight top 12’s. In his last 16 rounds, he ranks 9th in T2G and 13th in approach. The other players in this prop are Phil Mickelson, Matt Jones, Chez Reavie and Pat Perez.

“Top 5 Tony” has one finish outside the top 20 since November’s Masters so the odds for a top 20 seem like stealing to me. I’d like to think he took last week off to get in the zone the way I used to listen to Lil’ Wayne on the team bus in high school.

Matthew Fitzpatrick Top 20 (+200) - 1 unit

Another guy, like Casey, who doesn’t have the best history at TPC Sawgrass, but he’s playing too well and is too good to pass on this line. T11 and T10 the last two weeks on similar Florida courses and the second best putter in the field on Bermuda greens.

Missed cuts aren’t really something to bother too much with. If he misses again this week then you can start asking questions. In a setup with a lot of water and trouble abound I’m trusting crafty Pat Reed to find a way to get it done with his complete game. Amongst this field he’s positive in all SG categories in the last 6 weeks, and packs an accurate driver (47th in the PGA this year). He’s bounced back well from missed cuts in his history.

Give me another guy with a great all around game. In one and dones this week Webb is going to be so popular. He’s the perfect fit for the “I want to save the big guns but still want a potential winner” mentality. He packs the 4th most accurate ball off the tee in the PGA this year with positive approach play amongst the field in the last six weeks. That is a good combo to have, and makes a ton of sense when you’ve got five top 15s in your last nine events.

Matthew Fitzpatrick Top 20 (+200) - 2 units

Thanks again to all those that bogeyed #18 on Sunday to bring Fitz back into Top 10 territory. I think he stays in the mix this week even if his iron game isn’t spectacular. He’s 91st in the field in the last 6 weeks on SG: Approach, but he’s 60th this season in the entire PGA so I bet he has a good week. I think that’s likely since he has four straight outings with T17 or better. If the sweet spot on those irons arrives on contact, watch out.

Simply put, why not? He’s a tremendously accurate driver with a sweet set of irons. All the reasons we liked him last week are reasons we like him again this week. He backed that up with a shoe in top 20 so let’s go to the well again.

Up to 50th in the world after another solid week at Bay Hill; T7-T26-T22-T21 his last four starts. He’s 15th in the field over his last 16 rounds in SG: Approach and 19th in putting. Was in contention at the API until Sunday, he’s got the goods to keep it going.

It’s actually remarkable how good this guy’s been considering how bad he is at putting, but that’s how good he is tee to green. Willy Z ranks 6th this season T2G and 8th in approach and finished T10 last week. He has nine top 25’s in 12 starts this year.

I was one of the people who expected him to drop off a little when he left the comfy confines of California, but he’s still getting it done! T22 at the WGC and T10 last week to kick off the Florida swing. His ranks the last 16 rounds are pretty strong across the board, especially in putting where he places 6th.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 20 (+335) - 1 unit

This guy is the only golfer in the entire field gaining more than a stroke per round on Bermuda greens so that’s exciting. A T7 last week at Bay Hill is also exciting! Let’s see if he can keep it rolling at THE PLAYERS.

Why isn’t anyone talking about this guy? He finished 4th last week and has three top 7’s since the Waste Management five weeks ago. Might have to change his name to PUTTnam too because he’s a stud on the greens, ranking 4th in this loaded field the last 16 rounds in SG: putting.

Matthew Fitzpatrick to Win (+5000) - .25 unit

A three-pack of win bets I feel good about, considering their odds. Jeff and I talked on the podcast about Webb’s floor being so high and he’s won this tournament before. He is 4th in driving accuracy, 29th in GIR% and 21st in putting this year with two top 10’s in his last three starts. Let’s just throw out Hovland’s last two rounds at Bay Hill as that’s not who he’s been lately. Who he’s been is a top 10 machine with elite stats off the tee and with his approach. It’s a matter of time before he starts winning the big ones. Lastly, Matthew Fitzpatrick is playing too well to be 50/1. T11 and T10 the last two weeks like I mentioned earlier and his putting is stellar.

I’m excited about Ancer this week even if his form of late has been a mix of peaks and valleys. He followed up a missed cut with a T5 at AmEx, cut the next week, and went T18 at Genesis. I hope his accurate driver (1st in the PGA in driving accuracy) and irons (57th in SG: Approach amongst the field in the last 6 weeks) can create a ball striking weapon this week.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout top 20 (+335) - 1 unit

He finished 7th last week on another important ball striking course (I mean, they all are), and I think he can continue it this week with his irons. He’s 67th in the field in the last six weeks in SG: Approach, but I think the complete game is there. Who knows what would have happened last year, but maybe he’s licking his chops after a 65 last year on day one before it was cancelled.

Mark sold me on this pick live on the podcast. Everyone loves a good referral so let him sell you too and check out his breakdown.

Scottie Scheffler to win (+5000) - .25 units

Joaquin Niemann to win (+6600) - .25 units

Loading up the money cannon with some win bets this week. In theory all of these guys are great candidates for Top 10 or Top 20 plays, but I want to really sweat a win bet (unlike the passive win I got in Puerto Rico with Branden Grace). Cantlay and Hatton don’t have a real weakness in their game and Cantaly is so level headed that he can get it back on the rails unlike others (*cough* Rahm *cough*) on a course that will bite you at times. Scheffler is also playing so well in every category and 50/1 is just too high. Niemann’s irons have let him down in the last 6 weeks or so, but he nearly beat many of the big guns in Hawaii so why not again?

Making Picks: THE PLAYERS 

We’re back after an action-packed week across the PGA and LPGA Tour. Before we turn the full page to the Arnold Palmer Invitational this weekend let’s check out how the NLU guys did last week across the scorecard.

In Puerto Rico the nuggies went up in flames for 

 due to the enacting of the Trainer Act for his math misgivings on his Heinz play in a previous week (Trainer finished DFL in Puerto Rico). It was the only exposure to the Puerto Rico Open on the cards for any of the guys, and 

 only exposure for the week due to the aforementioned Trainer Act which required all of his nuggies this week on Trainer to win. Ball don’t lie.

 combined forces on a few guys last week, and it looks like 

 as he went 0fer on his picks this weekend. 

 had Leishman, JT, Bryson, and Hatton who all showed signs of life at different points on the weekend, but never had their best stuff to place where 

 being all over the yard, and hit on Scheffler top 20 with 30 nuggies on the line.

Another week and another Finau winner bet for 

, but this time he wasn’t alone because 

 hitched his wagon with a full 100 nuggie play on Finau to win. There were points where it looked possible, but a triple on the 2nd hole on Sunday took the wind out of the sails for the SS Finau which remains adrift after his Puerto Rico win in 2016.

scorecard where he sprinkled his nuggies across four players this weekend. At the WGC he took a Koepka win ticket and Hovland top 5. His Hovland top 5 winner joins 

Scheffler top 20 as the only winning tickets this weekend because both Carlota Ciganda and Sung Hyun Park both were never really in it for an outright victory at LPGA’s Gainbridge this past weekend.

It was a mixed scorecard for the Walk It In guys this weekend as well, but Jeff did hit on the Puerto Rico Bourbon Bet with a winner on Branden Grace. Maybe we should start betting in shots of bourbon versus nuggies and dollars going forward? Not as profitable, but we’ll forget our losses faster!

If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Jeff is “away” this week having tied Mark last week, but having a worse showing the week before at Riviera so he’ll go first on the reads.

: The Florida swing continues and we’re on back to back “long” courses measuring in at 7,400+ yards. That means another week where a premium will be placed on approach. The Par 4s are an average of 430 which is the same as Concession, and the Par 5s average out to a very manageable 560 yards. This course doesn’t have the same green undulation we saw last week, and that is backed up because historically there has been less weight in SG: Putting than the average PGA event. Guys like Keegan Bradley and Leishman playing well here over multiple visits is evidence that putting prowess may not matter. So I’m going to look at tee to green this week along with my approach numbers to get a few guys that can strike it.

: Bay Hill seems like a very similar course to The Concession last week; very long with scorable par 5’s and very fast Bermuda greens so I may target some of the same players as last week and others that performed well with their iron games and work on/around the green. Course history is also back in the fold for me considering the difficulty of the course and variables like wind, where experience might be a huge advantage.

Matthew Fitzpatrick Top 10  (+225) - 1 unit

If we see the wind that they are projecting for Saturday and Sunday then I expect Fitzpatrick to shine. He says he loves the tougher conditions, and he’s done well here in the past. His form has impressed and while he’s only 37th in SG: Approach amongst the field in the last 36 rounds, he’s 17th SG: Tee to Green and positive in all categories. Give me his complete game contending in a potentially windy setup.

Double Euro! Another guy who has played very well of late, but doesn’t have the pedigree on this course that Fitzpatrick has. Even so, I like Casey’s form and iron play (he’s 9th in approach amongst the field in the last 36 rounds) and has a sneaky good driver in the bag in terms of accuracy and distance. Lots of international guys play well at this course and I think Casey is primed to contend.

Did you all see the wood that Zalatoris took into the final hole at Torrey Pines a few weeks again and stuck his 2nd shot to 8 feet? Yeah, me too. This guy strikes it from anywhere on the map and the stats show that. I’m going to take his approach game (5th in the field) along with the form of 4 of the last 5 finishes inside the top 25. Zalatoris proves week after week that he can figure a course out even with a lack of history.

Mark reminded me that just because the roulette table is red five times in a row doesn’t mean you should put it all on red again, but I’m doing it. We’ve seen five straight international winners and the odds table shows a lot of love for international guys again. I’m worried about Bryson and Burns and that’s the list.


Viktor Hovland (-112) over Bryson DeChambeau - 1 unit

Hovland could have very well won last week without that snowman at the end of round two, still finishing T2 to go with all of his other top 5’s and 10’s recently. In his last 16 rounds, he ranks 1st in the field in SG: T2G and 3rd in SG: Approach. People may not realize Hovland is only 2 spots behind Bryson in the OWGR as they seem to be going in opposite directions recently.

Has two third place finishes at Bay Hill in as many appearances. Didn’t play up to expectations last week, but generally putts much better on Bermuda, is great off the tee and has the approach game (27th in GIR%) to be in contention again.

He’s the defending champ and the 6th best player in the world, and I can have a top 20 for -110? T22 last week at The Concession, but would have placed much higher if not for some hiccups around the green. 4th in the field in SG: Approach and 9th in putting among this week’s entrants over his last 16 rounds.

In his last three events, he has gone T7, T26 and a T22 last week at the WGC. He gained strokes on the field during all four rounds in T2G and approach and is a much better putter than he showed last week. If he turns that around at Bay Hill, I expect him to be in contention this weekend.

Francesco Molinari Top 10 (+275) - 1 unit

He’s made the cut in all seven tries here with four top 10’s and a win in 2019. T8 at the Genesis two weeks ago is his third top 10 in his last 4 events and he’s been brilliant tee to green, around the green and with his approach.

Was I a week early on the Leishman love last week? Maybe. But he finished second here last year, is second all time on the tournament money list and the T2G/Approach/Putting stats that led me to pick him last week have me going back to the well.

Matthew Fitzpatrick Top 10 (+225) - 1 unit

Riding with Jeff here; Fitzpatrick’s numbers last week were very strong and his history at Bay Hill is good enough to back him (three top 15’s and a runner-up). He’s “pretty good” in just about every measurable stat over the last 16 rounds and says he likes playing in wind so why not?!

I think they’re asleep at the wheel on this one with Nesmith’s latest form (three straight top 20s including a T20 at Riviera) and his great iron game. He’s another young guy where I think he’s really finding some magic lately, and ranking 4th in approach in this field would show that. He also missed the cut on the number last year with a 36th hole bogey so I think he’ll be hungry

Let’s get some more international exposure! Henrik (not Stenson) has been good lately aside from his missed cut at Genesis and fade on Sunday at Pebble. His irons are strong (11th in approach amongst the field) and his putting woes won’t be exacerbated on a tough course.

Just like Nesmith and Norlander, Conners can pack a punch with the irons. Even though he’s been cut here twice I like that his overall game is in great shape from the tee (9th in driving accuracy) to the green. His putter is his downfall just like Norlander, but I’m hoping one of the two can find some Morikawa like magic.

He has the shortest top 20 odds amongst my picks in this segment and that is warranted. He’s made 5 straight cuts and his iron and tee game is very strong. He’s 2nd in the field tee to green in the last twelve rounds so I’m going for it with Davis to show up.

I know I have the no US winner bet on Inside the Leather, but if Burns or Reed want to spoil the fun then I’m all for it. Sungjae has a great history here and got his tune up after a couple weeks off last week at Concession. I think Burns is still ascending and I want 40-1 before we start seeing him in the 20s and 30s soon. Reed is just Reed. His stats don’t wow, but he’s solid everywhere and is a gamer. He was in the mix again last week and that’s just what you expect with him. Finally, Nesmith was profiled already but 100-1 for the 4th best ball striker in this field?! Don’t have to ask me twice.

Hopefully still in good spirits after letting a win slip away at Riviera two weeks ago. One of the best putters on TOUR and that’s multiplied on Bermuda as he gains over .5 strokes per round more on that surface. He’s 16th this season in GIR% and 25th in par 5 scoring, two big time stats for me this week.

Poults lives in Orlando and obviously loves this course as he’s made 10 straight cuts here with six top 25’s. He’s not in the best form, but I’m putting my trust in his course history here.

Francesco Molinari GROUP C Winner (+350) - 1 unit

Offered on Draftkings, Molinari’s group includes Horschel, Spieth, Kokrak and Day. I already mentioned Frankie’s history here as well as his recent form and think he’s poised for a big week. Draftkings has him at 30/1 this week with Spieth and Horschel. Day and Kokrak are both 35/1.

Matthew Fitzpatrick To Win (+2500) - .5 unit

Grouping these plays together since they’re right next to each other on the odds board this week and I’m already on both of them to finish in the top 10. They both love the course, they both putt extremely well and they’re even better on Bermuda. It wouldn’t surprise me to see one of these two win this week.

For even more content from the Walk It In boys, please check out their links below.  Cheers!


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Making Picks:  API Presented by Mastercard

In an effort to stick to our #yearoftheprocess, we have decided to enhance our weekly gambling content to include a written feature.  NLU is proud to introduce Mark & Jeff from the Walk It In Podcast.  Mark & Jeff are good friends, hack golfers, and fans of the game that love gambling and talking sports.  We could not be more excited to have them onboard and see what type of "experts" they actually are.  Cheers - 

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It was a monumental week at Riviera as friend of the program and all-world guy Max Homa won the Genesis Invitational in exciting fashion over Tony Finau and the rest of a loaded field. Homa (70/1) overcame a missed birdie putt on the 72nd hole to beat Finau on the second playoff hole and cash big money for his supporters (of which there were many).

, is the new Draft King this week after betting on Homa to win outright at a massive 70/1. He missed all his other bets last week, but it doesn’t matter as he’ll be playing with house money (nuggets) for a while. 

 has escaped the Pouch of Misery after going 1-4, his first win in five weeks - progress! Homa’s three foot birdie miss at the end of regulation single handedly passed the Pouch to 

 as Randy had a prop that the winner birdie the 72nd hole. He finished the week 0-5 with his other misses on Morikawa and Scott top 10’s, Bubba Watson to win and a winning margin of two strokes. 

hit a Max Homa top 20 (+200), but missed on Cantlay to win, Niemann top 10, Norlander top 20 and a matchup parlay. 

 had a good week at the book, also supporting Homa with a top 20. If only he and DJ were as confident in their friend as Tron was, amirite?! Soly also hit on a Tony Finau top 10 and a matchup parlay with Rory and Morikawa. His two losses were Jordan Spieth top 10 and Cam Tringale top 20.

The Walk It In guys had mixed results last week as Mark was up almost four units and Jeff was down almost six. Viktor Hovland (top 10 and top Oklahoma State player) came up huge for Mark as well as Tony Finau (top 10). Swings and misses included a Carlos Ortiz top 20 and a matchup with Tringale as well as Joaquin Niemann top 10 and win bets. Add Jeff to the Homa supporters section as he had him in a matchup over Jason Kokrak. He also won Morikawa over Matsuyama, but his finishing position bets didn’t fare as well. He lost on Cantlay to win and finish top 10, Ortiz to win and finish top 20, HVIII to finish top 40 and Justin Thomas to win.

The TOUR puts a new course in play this week at the WGC-Workday Championship and we each also have a bonus play on the Puerto Rico Open…

How do the pros put themselves in the best position to score? A great approach! Here’s how the Walk It In guys are looking at this week’s tournament, followed by our best bets. Our safer picks are dubbed “Inside the Leather”, like a short putt that your friend might give you at the country club. Longshot plays are “Double Breaker” bets; difficult, but makeable putts that require great reads and execution. Mark leads it off this week after a better showing at Riviera.

 The Concession Golf Club looks awesome, but that doesn’t help bettors handicap a tournament much, does it? Without course history, I’m putting my chips mostly into approach and putting (specifically on Bermuda) considering how long this course is and how small the greens are. Of course I’m also looking at recent form. There may be some value in players down the board for me, but I typically favor better players in WGC’s as the cream often rises to the top.

 The approach was errant last week. Very errant. You could say that I had some trouble even finding the green with the direction some of my picks went. Need a big rebound week (looking at you too, Justin Thomas) down in Florida where a longer course at 7,400 yards should put a premium on approach. The par 3s are long (180+ yards) and a couple Par 4s have some teeth at 470+ yards. With little to no course history this week (except for NCAAs in 2015) I’m looking for guys who play Florida well, flush irons, and have fantastic form.

Back to the well with Hovland after he came through huge for me at Riviera. He is currently doing everything well, led last week’s field in SG: Off The Tee, is 9th this season in SG: T2G and 11th in GIR percentage. I love this kid!

Hatton (+106) over Justin Thomas - 1 unit

I hope people keep sleeping on Hatton because I’ll try and take advantage of the prices every time. Hasn’t played in America in a few months so he’s flying under the radar, but he’s 5th in the world, won in Abu Dhabi last month and won last year at the Arnold Palmer Invitational  in Orlando. Fantastic iron player and fantastic putter, especially on Bermuda. Neil is on Hatton this week too and he’s kinda sorta turning a corner with his picks so let’s go!

Xander Schauffele Top 10 (+138) - 2 units

Doing EVERYTHING well right now and has the results to prove it. Over his last 16 rounds, Xander ranks 6th in the field in SG: T2G, 6th in Approach and 5th in putting. He has 16 straight top 25’s and he’s going to win again very soon.

Jeff’s weekly system play tries to identify a golfer who missed the cut the previous week but showed positive indicators in strokes gained approach and off the tee. To date we’re 3-2 in the system with wins on Sam Burns, Abraham Ancer, and Jason Day but loses on Cameron Champ and last week with Harold Varner. Sergio Garcia showed well last week despite the MC at Riviera and that can be chalked up to a bad putter. This guy crushes in Florida and before the missed cut had three top 15s out of the previous 4 events he played. Vamos!

Soly and I are all aboard the Scottie train this weekend. He’s rounding into form with his irons (20th in approach in the last month amongst the field) and has booked a T7 and T20 in his last two (amongst strong fields) after back to back missed cuts. Remember he had new clubs to start the season so I think he’s finding the right groove.

Xander Schauffele Top 10 (+138) - 1.5 units

Xander has 5 straight T17 or better and three of those were top 5s. He’s got a complete game and is gaining strokes in every category in the last 30 days. He’s an elite player that should contend this weekend. These greens won’t give anyone a break and he’s bringing a hot putter to compliment an approach game that ranks 8th in the field. Xander Finau final group on Sunday?! One can hope.

Patrick Cantlay Top 10 (+138) - 1.5 units

Patrick just missed the top 10 last week with a really lackluster performance on Sunday. He had to wake up and finish on Sunday and with a guy with that kind of injury history and the effort he has to put in to get ready I think it was just too much for him on Sunday. I like the bounce back here for another guy who is so good in every category just like Xander, and especially with the irons placing 5th in the field in the last 30 days.

Xander Schauffele to Win (+1200) - 1 unit

Jeff and I told you all the reasons why we love Xander for a top 10 this week and he’s my pick to win the tournament as well. He’s crushing just about every metric out there right now and is real close to collecting another trophy.

Writing this on the one year anniversary of his win in Puerto Rico, it’s fitting that that tournament is also being played this week. Hovland is stepping up in class to the WGC-Workday this year and has what it takes to win this one as well.

It may not seem like it sometimes, but I swear I’m rooting for Tony Finau. “Always a bridesmaid, never a bride”, he’s also always gracious in defeat and always bounces back with another top performance. Maybe he wins this week and maybe he doesn’t, but he’s playing great golf and hopefully keeps charging ahead. Top 5 Tony, let’s dance.

Can someone explain to me how the 32nd ranked player in the world is 125/1 to win a golf tournament? In his last five events, he’s gone T8-T24-T4-T18-T32 and he always tends to creep up the leaderboard in big tournaments. 4th in the field over his last 16 rounds in SG: Approach and 16th T2G. He’s also a much better putter on Bermuda greens. I mentioned Hatton’s win last year at the API - Leishman was the runner up in that tournament.

Christian Bezeuidenhout Top 20 (+300) - 1 unit

Shout out to my co-host for allowing me to properly pronounce the South African’s last name. Not a lot of folks probably pay close attention to a guy that only comes over to the PGA Tour a few times a year. He’s been showing up on leaderboards over in Europe this season and has 4 T22s or better in his last 5 and won a European Tour event in December. His putting is a bitttt volatile, but he brings the 11th ranked iron game on strokes gained approach. Let’s hit 'em close, Christian!

Soly and DJ are all over this and I’m along for the roller coaster ride that this could be. I’ll protect the downside of a duel on Sunday with the Top 5, but I was sold on this pick watching him react to losing the playoff on Sunday. Gracious, positive, and calm describe his comments even after shooting a 64 on Sunday and still losing. He’s a complete player (2nd in approach amongst the field in the last 30 days) and will break his own Puerto Rico curse the same weekend as the Puerto Rico Open is played. It’s just too perfect.

Much like Bez, Tyrell is back over in the states and resides in Florida during these swings. He won the Arnold Palmer Invitational last year and showed some amazing golf after the restart. He’s legit and has 5 straight top 25s including a win at HSBC in December in a very solid field. He also gains in all categories amongst this field and packs a sweet set of irons on contact.

This is a boom or bust play. With Finau why not protect the downside of a close finish, but with Sungjae he brings an all or nothing attack every week. Surprisingly (and good for my bet) he took a week off last week to rest up because this guy has played a lot. His putter has been a little shaky and his irons haven’t been what we expect, but I bet he figured it out in the off week in his new home in Atlanta. If he has a silky set of irons this week I think he’s right there, and he’s been comfortable during the Florida swing.

I picked Berger at Phoenix he goes missed cut and then victory at Pebble. I take Molinari at Pebble and he cold tops to open the weekend and fades outside the top 45. Then comes back to finish T8 at Genesis. Now last week, where I take Justin Thomas and he folds for one of the worst performances in recent memory. The form and iron numbers do not back this up, but my ability to be a week early sure does. Let’s do it.

With a bottle of bourbon on the line, we have a special H2H matchup between co-hosts to make the Puerto Rico Open more interesting! In one corner, Jeff and Branden Grace (20/1). In the other corner, Mark and Cameron Percy (45/1). Who you got?!

Making Picks: WGC Workday at The Concession

We have glossed this “The Year of the Process” for No Laying Up, so let’s begin. Those that listened to the “2021 Goals” episode of the TrapDraw podcast heard me talk about an itch to build on last year’s movie goal. The idea I settled on was to take some time each month and write about a film for this increasingly-golf-adjacent website. For better or worse, here is installment, No. 1.

“They’ll never catch me, man… Because I’m fuckin’ innocent.” – Dignan, mid-robbery

If you have any questions about Dignan’s dedication to The Process, please look no further than his bulletproof 75-year plan.


Yes, the finer points of his proposal get a little off the rails throughout “Bottle Rocket,” the first film by Wes Anderson. But you can’t tell me it’s due to a lack of planning and process.


I have a tough time thinking of a character that can make me mood-swing harder between joy and immense heartbreak than Dignan can. It’s a character so good that it has never even bothered me that Owen Wilson (or Owen C. Wilson as he was known in his debut role) has seemed to dust it off for just about every role he’s played since. 

Borrowing from Scott Tobias (A.V. Club) here

, but Wilson’s role in “Armageddon” feels a lot like “Dignan in Space.” Eli Cash in “The Royal Tenenbaums” and Hansel in “Zoolander” both have shades of what it would look like if the world placed a little more value on Dignan’s specific set of skills. If your old pal Dignan finally got a little recognition for his painstaking work.

And to be clear, I love all these roles. I love watching Owen Wilson in anything. All of those characters – but none more than Dignan – are earnest, sweet, loyal, delusional and cripplingly insecure. Each of the three main characters in “Bottle Rocket” possess all of these traits as well and I think seeing them in contrast with each other is what I’ve grown to love so much about the movie.

They might all have different names for it, and different plans of action, but all three main characters in the film seem to be trying their best to stave off some level of depression and aimlessness. “Bottle Rocket” is framed through the journey of Anthony (Luke Wilson), who begins the film by “escaping” from a high-end mental rehabilitation facility. He spends the rest of the movie pondering the meaning of his existence and finding it in – among other things – a motel housekeeper from Paraguay, his “program” of daily routine and coaching youth soccer. This is Anthony’s Process.

It all stems from a “what is the point of talking about watersports?” feeling that young, bookish, handsome stars have been dealing with for ages.  In fact, we get a nod to the godfather of the Aimless Boys with a swimming pool shot straight out of “The Graduate” when Anthony first arrives at the motel.


And like Benjamin Braddock before him, Anthony goes straight from the swimming pool into a very... 

 relationship. There’s no shortage of heartwarming or peculiar thoughts or interpretations to have about the Anthony-Inez relationship – a relationship where the participants barely speak each other’s language. But what is more interesting to me is the fact that no matter how many times Anthony tries to re-wire his life – to try to force some semblance of connection or place or meaning – the one thing he can’t stop doing is trying to make Dignan feel just a little less alone.

“Did it ever occur to you that your old pal Dignan might enjoy a great stay at some mental hospital out in the middle of nowhere?” – Dignan

While Bob, Dignan and Anthony all seem to be going through somewhat similar internal crises, I think what’s most interesting is that they’re all doing it from drastically different circumstances.

Bob’s emotional journey is thrown in almost for comedic effect (“I’ve been through some pretty heavy shit myself.”) As is made obvious and key to the plot, Bob comes from a ton of money – of course, a shout out to Future Man’s Pine Valley shirt in the country club scene.

And judging by Anthony’s rehab location, his stories of hanging at lake houses with beautiful girls, his sister’s private school (“What has she ever accomplished with her life that’s so great?”), it’s clear that his family has some means as well. And while money certainly isn’t a fix for what either Anthony or Bob is going through, it does at least allow for the “luxury” of sitting around and ruminating about it.


Again, like in “The Graduate,” it’s so easy to acutely identify with both the feeling of existential aimlessness, while, at the same time, screaming at the TV that it might help if both characters would get out of the god damn pool for a little while. “

One thing that makes Dignan unique to this trio is that he seems to have none of these resources (“You know there’s nothing to steal from my mom and Craig!”). He has no car. He has no role models that weren’t lifted straight from heist or kung-fu movies. This is why he naively and loyally chases the caricature of Mr. Henry (Fact: Mr. Henry has a Jaguar).

Mr. Henry reminds me of the John Mulaney line about Donald Trump – that he’s like a hobo’s idea of what a rich guy is. And in this instance, our hobo is Dignan, picturing what it would be like to have it all figured out. Ice cream cones by day and elaborate heists by night. All the while wearing what no one else is 

 to wear. Try not to laugh out loud when picturing Mr. Henry having a Very Serious Conversation while wearing a ponytail, socks-and-sandals and his karate robe.

But it’s actually kind of easy to see why Dignan buys in. At a bare minimum, Anthony and Bob have some financial insulation to help keep their misery at a bit of a distance – as an inconvenience to be worked on and treated as part of a slow rebuild. They can take up hobbies like jogging or coaching or being a construction worker or a valet while they think about what it all means.

The only lifeboat with room for Dignan is captained by the owner of the Lawn Wranglers who is doing karate in his underwear.

Of course, no matter how hard Dignan is willing to pull himself up by his bootstraps, one simply does not become Abe Henry overnight. It takes time and planning. So, as life continues to kick him between the legs of his yellow jumpsuit, Dignan's only real option is to dedicate himself to his own Process. His only defense from the onslaught of the world is to go on offense. To make a plan. “I don’t think we get anywhere by complaining, guys.”

One of those nut shots comes in the most gut-wrenching scene in the movie, when, just for fun, Future Man gives Dignan an emotional de-pantsing (“Keep up the mowing, kemosabe.”).  This is where Wes Anderson flexes the magic trick that seems to level me in all of his movies. When he takes a character as patently ridiculous as Dignan and, with a flash of crushing humanity, he makes the absurd facade fall away. In that moment, you’re left recognizing at least a shred of yourself in what’s still standing. Dignan puts it best in one of the greatest lines in the film. Sometimes we’re not always as confident as we look.

Since he doesn’t have time to coach youth soccer, Dignan’s Process is rooted in something a little more conventional. To establish some shred of control over his life, he tries to obsessively plan out every detail. To control a completely uncontrollable situation. Looked at in that way, doesn’t ridiculous Dignan sort of become the most relatable character in the film? Who hasn’t tried to do the same? And who hasn’t failed just as spectacularly as he does? But who didn’t feel better for at least trying?

Dignan’s plan for the next 75 years might be based around wrangling lawns and doing crimes, but I’m not sure that makes his process of planning any less noble. The alternative is to simply let his life wash over him. To continue trimming the hedges for Future Man.

Of course his plans don’t come to fruition. Ours usually don’t either. People change. They have horribly-timed heart attacks. But this doesn’t mean you stop making plans. Even in the shittiest of circumstances – with nothing at your disposal – you can always make a plan. There’s always a chance to take Step 1.

Dignan fails at almost every possible thing in this movie. But he never fails at making a plan.

“Everybody wants to know what’s next. May I enjoy this moment?”

Dignan and The Process

Madelene Sagström is the newest No Laying Up Young Hitter!

https://twitter.com/NoLayingUp/status/1352039902641324034

(Cover photo courtesy of Madelene Sagstrom Instagram)

Madelene is poised for a breakout on the LPGA tour this season. She is the defending champion at the Gainbridge LPGA, the next stop on tour, albeit at a different course this year, Lake Nona (shoutout Nona Blue and G-Mac’s sliders). That event in Orlando is Feb 25-28, with the tour slowly ramping up play for the rest of the 2021 season.

Madelene becomes the first Young Hitter to have won on a Big Tour, and takes over the highly watched spot as Best Young Hitter Never to Have Won a Major.

Madelene’s track record on those big stages is pretty strong:

T-11 at the 2017 KPMG Women’s PGA Championship (Olympia Fields North Course)

T-17 at the 2018 U.S. Women’s Open (Shoal Creek Club)

T-20 at the 2018 Women’s British Open (Royal Lytham & St. Annes Golf Club)

T-23 at the 2020 KPMG Women’s PGA Championship (Aronimink Golf Club)

 were impressive, to say the least.  Highlights included wins at the 2009 Swedish Junior Stroke-play Championship and the 2011 French Junior Championship, and a spot on the winning Swedish team at the European Ladies' Team Championship at Golf Club Murhof in Austria.  In total, Madelene’s junior career saw 11 wins, 10 second place finishes, and 21 top 10’s.

 for the LSU Lady Tigers team at Louisiana State University in Baton Rouge, Louisiana from 2011-2015.  She was the 2015 SEC Player of the Year, 2015 First Team All-American, and a finalist for the ANNIKA Award which is presented annually to the top female U.S. collegiate golfer.  During Madelene’s senior year she set a season record for stroke average at 71.48, the first LSU women’s play to average under 72 for a single season.  She carded 23 of 33 rounds of par or better with 2 wins (3 total at LSU).  Over the summers Madelene returned to Sweden and represented her home country in the European Women’s Team Amatear competition.

Madelene earned her LPGA card after killing it on the Symetra Tour in 2016 – three victories to earn Rookie and Player of the Year awards, respectively. Madelene also represented Europe on the 2017 Solheim Cup team as a captain’s pick of Annika Sörenstam.

Sagström had a solid end to 2020, making cuts in 8 of her last 9 starts, a solo 10th and T-13 among them. Madelene competed in the 2021 season-opening Diamond Resorts Tournament of Champions, a no-cut cash grab, so business is boomin for 2021.

As usual, the bag is niiiiice. NLU livin that C-Suite life alongside the Four Seasons Orlando, which also happens to be the home course of one Julio Bell, aka “La Maquina.” 

No Laying Up could not be more excited to support Madelene in all of her endeavors.  If you want to get #involved, check out:

https://www.instagram.com/madelenesagstrom/?igshid=pb4d4vqeh80j

https://www.lpga.com/players/madelene-sagstrom/98642/overview 6

And to see more of Madelene’s game, check out the Wild World of Golf episode with her, Annie Park, Soly and “Stuck in Traffic” Lefty Tron at the Winter Park Nine: 

https://nolayingup.com/videos/wwog/wild-word-of-golf/wild-world-of-golf-winter-park-9-madelene-sagstroem-and-annie-park

Young Hitters:  Welcoming Madelene Sagström

O Canada! By correctly predicting a 5-way Canadian bet at the Northern Trust, Tron is back in the mix and looking to catch a struggling group of DJ, Neil and Randy at the BMW this week. All picks are highlighted below:

 As the lead has slimmed and the gap between first and fifth (sorry, Soly) has narrowed significantly, DJ is no longer shooting from the hip. Instead, his research indicates that Collin Morikawa might back up his second career MC with another win. Collin's T13 at the collegiate Illini Invitational will certainly give him the sturdiest of legs to stand on this week.

I must thank the Pieman for keeping it easy on me by bundling his matchups into a parlay rather than a TC Canadian/Heinz cluster of complication. It'll be all or nothing for DJ as he is backing a group of classy ball-strikers that can struggle with the putter on occasion. The prevailing thought is that unfamiliar greens, which will be the case for most at Olympia Fields this week, tend to neutralize poor putters. If so, the ball-striking prowess of Hideki, Morikawa, McRib, Billy Ho and G-dub should allow them to rise up the board in comparison to the stronger bosses of the moss.

 The X-Man has been kicking the tires on contending again since his close call at Colonial. Three of his four wins on Tour have come in no cut events. Has no weaknesses and should translate well to a venue that’s new to almost everyone. The McRib has uncharacteristically struggled for a period of a couple months now, without even a backdoor Top 10 to boast about. Despite recent performance, Rors has the ability to flip the switch at a moment's notice, so investing in him at inflated odds compared to his norm is hard to knock. The same could be said for Patrick Cantlay, just to a lesser degree. Cantlay will need a much better performance than he's turned in of late if he intends to play in Atlanta next week (#37 in FEC standings). 

Joel "good morning" Dahmen got into a twitter debate with the crew earlier this week about how many rounds it would take him to reach Dustin's total of -30 playing TPC Boston. Joel humbly answered 100...but given his form this year we think it would take him decidedly less than a triple digit total. Neil expects Joel to bounce back from his disappointing MC in Boston and make a run at qualifying for the Tour Championship via a top 5 finish this week. Notably absent from Neil's picks is Chez, who failed to qualify for this week's BMW.

 Just like Jason Kokrak, Randy went all in 2020 last week by making one selection, backing Phil simply to top the alleged manipulator Alex Noren. Turns out the big guy did not have pocket aces...or kings...or queens.

Randy's reset this week led he and Neil to some similar conclusions. As Randy is hoping for a bounce back week, so too are Rory, Cantlay and Fitzy, all of whom make Randy's selections in some form or fashion. You've gotta appreciate the "if you fall, get back up" spirit the big guy is showcasing in those selections.

Finally, Randy expects the world's eldest 24 year-old in Scottie Scheffler to show some signs of fatigue this week, allowing Hideki to race past him up the leaderboard. Despite failing to reach the winner's circle in his rookie campaign to date, Scottie has all but clinched his spot in Atlanta next week via consistently strong form throughout the year. 

: Weeks of disappointing results were all washed away with a long-awaited Canadian cash last week. If you thought Tron would ditch the strategy after one week of going 5/5, then you don't know the TC way. Tough scene alert: the Canadian includes a fade of Tron's boy Scottie this week.

With some spending $ in his pocket this week, TC is donating 5 nuggets to the cause by picking the cursed Tony Finau to actually win this week. Not to mention the 5 nugget donation on a parlay of Woodland, Finau, Day and Adam Scott to all win their DK Sportsbook betting groups. The payout of +36350 is juicy...but I am confirming it'll never happen.

Max had a disappointing bogey on his 36th hole last week to miss the cut on the number, forcing him to sweat out his spot in the FEC standings all weekend. Now in the field, TC expects Max to play free from any expectations which could allow him to contend this week.

Wednesday's 7-club tune-up for Bryson could give him some competitive mojo before the tournament begins. A win on the venue where DeChambeau of course won his U.S. Am title would be less than shocking.

: Webb and Jon Rahm contributed to a rare positive week for Soly at the Northern Trust. Still very much in the basement, Soly is turning towards a young star in Viktor Hovland to help him climb out. Hovland has now likely lost his strangehold on the Arnold Palmer award as ROY on Tour, yet still has a chance to reclaim the title from Scheffler if he can have a couple impressive weeks to finish out his rookie campaign.

A couple "hot tips" led Soly to take Hideki and Nick Taylor this week despite their struggles of late. Hot tips always work out well, so these picks are surefire. Like TC, Bryson makes Soly's list of selections this week. A MC last week is not enough to deter the C-Suite from backing the biggest of golfers and debatably the new needle.

: My Kiz pick last week paid dividends, so why not go back to the well? He's a guy that is motivated by the sums of money at stake throughout the playoffs and thrives under the stakes. Surprised to see no love for Rahm this week from the crew, so I'll happily take him even though his odds are short. Agree with Neil's thought than Xander has been knocking on the door of late and is poised for a breakthrough. Also taking the coat-rack as it's put-up or shut-up time for his all-in claim. Will Jason hold 'em, or fold 'em like a cheap suit? 

The standings below are as of completion of play last week. I know they are not at all the same as the graphics that appeared in the video...but trust my accounting methods have been thorough and above board. If you like my perspective and want more content related to the crew's picks and year-to-date status, I can be found on twitter and instagram 

NLU Picks and Preview - BMW

It was another lackluster week for the crew in most cases, but a solid return for Big Randy now brings him ever closer to eclipsing DJ and strapped brother Neil in the standings. Picks for the playoff opener are highlighted below:

 Had there not been an impossible run by Jim Herman over the weekend, DJ's loyal former troop of the Bob Parsons army would have given back DJ the lead he once had after Webb Simpson win at RBC Heritage. Still, Billy Horschel was able to cash the Top 10 bet to keep DJ from having a total loss at Wyndham.

The rib still hasn't shown signs of life at major championships...or really since the Tour resumed at Colonial. But, as DJ so rightly pointed out, he is Mr. PGA Tour. Also the only 2x winner of the FedEx cup title, as he will be defending that second title. WIth a win this week, he would be well on his way to a third. Just not sure where DJ sees the good form coming from.

DJ's last two picks have been familiar plays by the crew and both will need big weeks to move on to Chicago and the BMW. Harold Varner played well last week at Wyndham, finishing T7 after leading thru the first 18 holes. Still in search of his first Tour win. So too is Sam Burns, happy to be in the playoffs again after some solid results post-COVID break. The depth of this week's field leads to some solid potential payouts for guys like Harold and Sam who aren't necessarily the most consistent players in the field.

 The Waka Flocka Flame puns may have given Sepp some bad vibes last week, as both he and Neil's staple Chez Reavie pick didn't even live long enough to keep Neil's interest over the weekend. A better would actually have been a little MC parlay.

This week Icarito's self-proclaimed strategy is to pick "short guys that just hit it good." Again, field depth is making those Top 10's look pretty juicy to Neil, actually making up four of his five picks. Xander, honest Abe, Lawddddd Tyrrell and Mrs. Longsocks make up Icarito's lineup of 5'8" flushers he expects to make the front page this week. The Chez top 20 isn't even worth wasting breath on at this point.

 Thankfully still (somewhat) vertical, Randy was able to spill his only pick of the week next to his associate DJ Pie. Randy's consitently conservative picks has allowed him to continually make a slow indent into the lead that DJ and Neil had built. The strategy is certainly no different this week.

A full 100 piece nugget count relies on the only Champions Tour eligible player in the field this week: Phil Mickelson. He will need to beat possibly the most famous OWGR manipulator of our time in Alex Noren to give Randy a positive return this week. Alex has played well of late, though he can't boast the course history Phil can at TPC Boston. Of course, one of Phil's most famous flop shots of his career came from the right side below the 18th green here. Oh, you thought I meant Phil always plays well here? Psh. As Soly and the datagolf guys dicussed on this week's pod, Phil is only truly above average at that place down in Georgia. A poor performance from Phil this week will leave Randy feeling about as well as he did the morning after the recording of this week's video.

: The curmudgeon has struck again, going against the grain by picking a Canadian 5-way instead of the Heinz 57 that garenered so much attention in previous weeks. Five separate matchups will be included in the Canadian play, which is honestly too cumbersome to break down given most would rather just see how the results pan out.

A couple young (maybe not super young) hitters make up a couple TC Top 10 locks of this week, with Max Homa at 20:1 to do so and Marc Leishman at 11:1. Leish has struggled uncharacteristically recently, likely baking in a lot of value in backing him on a course that typically plays closer to the firm & fast end of the spectrum. Leish is ever-capable of breaking his slump in an instant and jumping right into the thick of a chase for a title. Similarly, Tommy Fleetwood has been unable to shake off the rust stemming from the long break. You'd have to figure it is only a matter of time before something clicks for the distinguished Englishman as well. The Keith Mitchell play very well could be a result of a classic little game of eenie-meenie-miney-moe. Who knows where that came from...but I guess we are coming off a week where the 600-1 Jim Herman emerged victorious. 

: Soly's extensive research has not resulted in any level of success. What's even more irritating is that the undeniably "free-wheeling" approaches of the Strapped Boys have netted exponentially greater returns. The C-Suite may need to look into further budget cuts on the upcoming seasons as the Strapped Boys may not be so strapped any longer.

In order of their odds, Webber, yung Hov and Hungjae start Soly's search for improvement as the playoffs begin this week. Each of the three are known for their iron-play and Strokes Gained: Approach prowess. With Paul Casey and Phil and Chez as the only real threats, Soly is riding with Jon Rahm to finish as low Arizona St. Sun Devil this week, which is a play I love especially given it is still somehow + odds.

Articles

Making Picks: THE PLAYERS

Making Picks: API Presented by Mastercard

Making Picks: WGC Workday at The Concession

Dignan and The Process

Young Hitters: Welcoming Madelene Sagström

NLU Picks and Preview - BMW

NLU Picks and Preview - Northern Trust

NLU Picks and Preview - Wyndham

2020 US Open @ Winged Foot Picks & Preview

NLU picks for the 2020 PGA Championship

NLU Odds Preview - Rocket Mortgage Classic

NLU Odds Preview - Travelers Championship

Selection #18: December 2019

Selection #17: October 2019

Selection #16: September 2019

NLU Summit Photos

NLU Invitational: Scotland / SOLD OUT

Selection #15: August 2019