The final major of 2021 is in the books and Collin Morikawa put on a clinic to grab his second career major at just 24 years old. There were quite a few of us interested in a Jordan Spieth victory, but it was not meant to be. Let’s walk back our picks before looking at the 3M Open.

 is putting everyone else to shame and he doesn’t care who knows it! Another winning week for him after hitting Koepka and Oosthuizen top 10’s. He narrowly missed a Jordan Spieth win and had two other losses, but the king lives on.

, who went 0-5 yet again. He had four win bets on Webb Simpson, Viktor Hovland, Phil Mickelson and Ian Poulter as well as a top 30 on Richard Bland. Maybe he’ll find some form before the playoffs start?

was another sad Spieth backer (as well as Dustin Johnson), but he did hit a hefty Robert MacIntyre top 10 at +650!

 had a winless week after picking Hatton, Hovland and Spieth to win, Leishman to top 5 and Marcus Armitage to top 40. TC is still up on the season, but barely.

says he’s breaching and his Spieth top 10 and Oosthuizen top 5 would seem to agree. Win bets on Hatton, Hovland and Schauffele were not to be, but it was a respectable week for the ol’ beluga!

For the Walk It In guys, Mark finished dead even after losing his first round bet on Rahm, a top 30 on Richard Bland and a win bet on Spieth, among others. He managed to hit on Spieth top 20, Poulter top 4 Englishman and Fitzpatrick over DeChambeau. Jeff was down slightly after losing some placement bets on Harris English, Patrick Cantlay and some others. He scored a nice hit on Robert MacIntyre to be the top lefty, however.

Now that the majors are done, we preview this week’s 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities before the Olympics start and then the playoffs shortly after that!

If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Jeff is away and goes first at TPC Twin Cities!

It’s crazy to think that we’re already done with the majors for 2021. What a ride it was. I really like handicapping tournaments like this though. I think there are a few more angles than when you have all the big boys in the field. This week for me I’m going with birdie or better % (birdie fest the last two years) and a combo of distance and accuracy (water is in play a lot here). Obviously approach is in there as well to find some hot hands.

: This week is all about accuracy tee-to-green as this is yet another easy, scorable setup for professional golfers. There’s a bunch of water at TPC Twin Cities, but if that is avoided, numbers will be low. A quick look at the last two years of this tournament proves putting doesn’t really matter here as Matthew Wolff and Michael Thompson both put up gaudy numbers en route to victory while being very poor putters. In addition to accuracy, I’m looking at driving distance and par 5 scoring.

Herbert has been cruising lately. Even with a missed cut last week he wasn’t awful compared to his peers, and he had a run of three straight top 20s from there. Let’s hope it stays in the black. His putter is in great form and his approach and driving numbers are also really strong compared to this field. In fact, he’s 9th in this field in SG: T2G in the last 12 rounds.

A surprising guy near the top of SG: T2G in the last 12 and 36 rounds was Stanley. Unfortunately for him the putter hasn’t been there. You know who has similar problems like that sometimes? Collin. Let’s see if Kyle can channel even an ounce of Collin’s iron and overall game. It’s not too tall a task.

Missed the cut by a stroke last week in The Open. I think that this is an opportunity for him in this field to make some noise. He’s one of the best with the driver. He’s similar to Kyle where his putter has been less than stellar but he can find a few good days to contend.

Lanto Griffin (EVEN) over Cam Davis - 1 unit

Cam Davis has a win at the Rocket Mortgage but his stats aren’t backing up this run of form. Yes, he’s played good golf lately, but I really like the steadiness of Griffin of late. He had a rough stretch in April and May, but he’s righted the ship nicely. He’s not really at placement play, but I think his form will outshine Davis.

Bubba Watson (-106) over Sergio Garcia - 1 unit

Two plays on Bubba this week, who I think should do well at this course with his distance. He is 7th on TOUR in SG: Off The Tee and 31st in SG: T2G. He’ll be able to attack the par 5’s and shorter par 4’s and will also benefit from not traveling to and from The Open.

Had a little rough patch with three straight missed cuts, but came back with a vengeance last week at The Open with a T12. He’s 12th on TOUR in SG: Approach and 1st in the field in that category over his last 16 rounds. A true ball striker at a ball striker’s paradise!

This Gary Woodland lookalike has finished T4 and T5 in consecutive weeks, ranks 6th on TOUR in driving distance, 36th in GIR% and 13th in par 5 scoring. On a fan and human level, I’ve really enjoyed rooting for him the last few weeks after learning about his newborn’s health issues and how his family has handled it all.

A three pack of win bets this week. I’m really high on all three guys for their recent form. We saw Seamus Power finally get his after a great run. I think this is another opportunity to capitalize on guys who are firing on all cylinders. I already touched on Herbert, but Lebioda is a carbon copy of Power. He’s poking around all over the map, and this might be his week. Bubba is another one who didn’t go to The Open, he should be well rested, and he’s been in contention now for a couple of weeks. All three are in the top 16 SG: T2G in this field in the last 12 rounds. I just need Bubba to find the hot putter that Lebioda and Herbert have had.

I’m going back to Hank one more time, and why not? He’s got three straight top 10’s now and like Jeff said, I’m picking up Seamus Power vibes as someone playing really well and then breaking through for a win. He’s played in this tournament both years with a T26 and T34, but is much better than he was at those times. Ranks 18th in GIR% and 24th in putting on TOUR.

Jeff has this same play Inside the Leather, but I have a little better number so here we are in Double Breaker. Keegan is an absolute weapon off the tee and with his irons, ranking 6th on TOUR in SG: T2G, 4th in approach, 23rd in GIR% and 21st in par 5 scoring. He stinks at putting, but it wasn’t a problem for Wolff and Thompson and I don’t anticipate it holding Bradley back this week.

Making Picks: 2021 3M Open

Cameron Riley is the newest No Laying Up Young Hitter!

No Laying Up is happy to announce Cameron Riley, a former Florida A&M Rattler and Strapped Tallahassee star, is the newest Young Hitter! Cameron hails from the Bahamas, and moved to Orlando in high school before settling into Tallahassee as a mechanical engineering major at FAMU.  


As a collegiate golfer, Riley helped FAMU to some of its best results – capturing the first 

 and surging into the NCAA Regionals in 2021.  Riley won the 

, one of four Rattlers in the top five, earning entry into Advocates Pro Golf Association (APGA) events this summer, and travel costs to those events and to the Korn Ferry Qualifying Tournament this fall.

Riley showed well at the 6th Major, the APGA Deere Run, in July, finishing T8 with a +1 73.

 at Sawgrass July 29-31, where he’ll compete in a limited field (sweepstakes) event against 17 other minority golfers.


No Laying Up could not be more excited to support Cam in all of his endeavors.  If you want to #getinvolved and check out more of the story, follow these links:

To catch Cameron in Strapped: Tallahassee, Episode Two, check 

Keep up with Coach Mike Rice and the FAMU Rattlers 

Welcome to the NLU Fam, Cameron, and bring that heat to the APGA and beyond!

Young Hitters:  Welcoming Cameron Riley

Let’s start with our mayor of the pouch, 

, who found himself again looking for a way to avoid misery. His chalkboard lesson did him some favors as he got Danielle Kang Top 10, and a Bobby Mac Top 20 this week. Even though he didn’t hit pay dirt with a Mickelson/Brady win (Rodgers!), a McNealy win, or a Spain Euro win it was still a step in the right direction for the bottom of the board.

? I, for one, absolutely love what he was up to this week. Limit the exposure to one guy, and see if you can strike gold. It was a huge opportunity for Chez Reavie (and for Neil) to strike during #chezfest. Neil had a win, top 10, top 20, top 30, and make the cut bet on Chez. He hit 3 of those 5 and came up short due to a lackluster Sunday on Top 10 and win. Not a bad showing for Randy and Neil this week.

As we move up the board let’s start with 

. Unfortunately he found the pouch after Neil and Randy hit a couple winners. His pouch pick will have him playing intern, and he has to pick up the Draft Prince’s coffee of choice. Rather tepid punishment there for DJ. On the pick front, Mickelson/Brady for plus money looked great (just ask Mark) but it started a week that would end with zero winners for DJ. Across the board from his Harman Top 10, Mcnealy Top 10, Guilia Molinaro Top 10 and Leona Maguire win he couldn’t find a winner. Not the form you want to carry into the British Open.

It’s really a two man race at this point so let’s check in with 

With the LPGA shortening their tournament to 54 holes who is to say that Austin Ernst wouldn’t have charged up against Hataoka’s 8 stroke lead going into Sunday. I bet Tron believes it would have happened! His win bet on Ernst won’t pay out either way. Neither will his Bobby Mac win, Fleetwood win, Zach Johnson Top 10, or Mav Mcnealy top 10. Not a good week to let Soly pad that lead.

Given Tron’s week it is getting late early for the season’s Draft Prince. 

 struck with a pair of Top 20s on Lebioda and Hagy. Those two wins were enough to keep him around the even mark because he missed on Leona Maguire Top 10, Bobby Mac Top 10, and a Streelman win.

As for the Walk It In boys, it was a week just below even for both guys. Mark was all over Hank Lebioda and he nearly hit a huge pay day on the win and Top 3 American, but the late tee times charged and knocked him just shy of the Top 3 American placing. He still hit the Top 20, but it was close to a huge week. Jeff found some winnings with Doug Ghim who made just enough putts to sneak into the Top 20. He missed on Streelman’s awful missed cut and a set of win bets from McNealy, Im, and Wise.

Major week always means you have to watch Mark closely - he’s the Brooks Koepka of the podcast, always showing up for the big ones!

If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Jeff is away and goes first at The Open!

Coffee and golf is a wonderful thing. I can’t wait to cut my sleep schedule short this week to enjoy everything that The Open Championship offers. Keep an eye on the weather as Thursday approaches, but I think there are some stats that have Open staying power. Of those I want to target guys who are playing well (Top 50 SG: T2G amongst this field of 155), scramble well (short game has to be creative and on point), and are striking it well (SG: Approach and accuracy off the tee). That’s a lot to take into consideration, but Royal St. George’s is going to be asking questions.

: Generally speaking, The Open courses are all set up in a very similar manner, with extremely penal rough/fescue, difficult bunkers and fast greens. For this reason, I’m targeting players this week with excellent short games and putting. Some stats that indicate this is SG: Around the Green, SG: Putting and scrambling. The majority of my card also consists of players who have a strong Open history and/or played well at the Scottish Open last week because I think familiarity with the setup and style of play can be important.

Harris has rediscovered the form from his late 2020 run that carried him to a victory at Sentry in Hawaii. We’re far from the tropical beaches of Hawaii, but Harris has stepped his game up of late. He won three weeks ago at TPC River Highlands, and is an excellent short game player. He has the scrambling pedigree, is accurate off the tee, and his irons and driver have continued to improve. Amongst the field he’s 12th in SG: T2G in his last 12 rounds.

He’s been steady eddy since his little dip in March/April. When he’s making cuts he’s finding the top of the leaderboards, and is on a little bit of a streak lately. I really like Cantlay’s game and his demeanor should things get demanding out there due to the weather. He’s second on tour this year in scrambling and his entire T2G is 4th amongst this field in his last 36 rounds. He’s poised for a great showing.

Robert MacIntrye Top Lefty (+200) - 2 units

Bobby Mac has competition this week from Mickelson, Harman, and Higgo. Higgo is the only one that gives me pause but he hasn’t been tearing the cover off of it. Mac was at the Scottish Open last week, knows this kind of golf well, and debuted very well in ‘19 at his first Open. This line feels like a lot of value.

Ian Poulter Top 4 Englishman (+150) - 2 units

Big Ian Poulter guy this week! He finished T4 last week at the Scottish Open and feels comfortable playing at The Open with 3 top 10’s and 6 top 25’s over the years. He also has a few missed cuts in recent years, but I’m putting more emphasis on the good news considering how well he’s playing and how good of a short game he has.

Jon Rahm Top 20 After Round 1 (+110) - 2 units

I made this exact bet at the US Open at +150 and Rahm was T5 on Thursday so let’s try and duplicate that. I don’t want to bet his 8/1 tournament line, but plus money here seems like stealing.

The Open winner in 2017, T9 in 2018 and T20 in 2019 so it’s clear he likes playing this major. Add to that that he’s back and you have a good starting point for success this year! Spieth ranks 19th in SG: T2G, 8th in SG: ATG and 34th in SG: Putting this year.

Matthew Fitzpatrick (-103) over Bryson DeChambeau - 1 unit

This is just a play on two players trending in opposite directions at the moment. Bryson has a new caddie, but has had a busy and tumultuous few weeks with the change, missing a cut and then playing in The Match. Fitzpatrick just played great at the Scottish Open before losing in a playoff. Fitzpatrick is also 24th on TOUR in putting.

The young Italian has been on a nice little tear since his US Open coming out party. This should be another chance for him to continue this run. He was T35 at the Scottish Open last week after back to back top 15s state side. He also had back to back runner ups in May on the European Tour. He’s 18th SG: T2G in this field and his 36/12 round splits are improving.

Matthew Fitzpatrick to Win (+4000) -.25 unit

I’ve profiled English already, and I’m taking four more win bets this week.Fitzpatrick has been playing well this season and he’s another crafty player with his short game. Webb Simpson is just a gut feel. He’s an excellent short game player, his irons have been good, and he’s accurate off the tee. My only concern is his neck and his latest interview suggests it’s better. The time off and rust is a potential factor, but I like his stat profile this week. Finally I’m digging deep with Jason Day. He’s T27 or better in 4 of the last 5 at The Open and is coming here with back to back T14 or better (granted, weak fields).

I read his comments about figuring something out on the range on Sunday. We’ve all been there, yes, and it rarely transfers when your buddy “figures it out” before the 8am tee time. But we’re all not Rory. So when you combine that with his history at this major I just can’t not. Damn it, let’s go, Rors!!

Who is this guy you ask? Well, he won the British Masters in May, finished 15th last week in the Scottish Open and has two other top 5 finishes among his last 5 starts. He’s played in one Open and finished T22 in 2017. His European Tour bio also says he likes Formula One and so do I after watching Drive to Survive on Netflix!

Robert MacIntyre to Win (+9000) - .25 unit

You all heard why I love Spieth and Poulter this week, with their short games and history at The Open, and another guy who fits that exact criteria is Patrick Reed. Reed is 27th this season in SG: T2G, 14th around the green and 9th in putting. He also has three top 20’s (and a T28) in his last five Open starts. I don’t particularly think Robert MacIntyre will be this week’s champion, but he finished T18 at the Scottish Open last week, T8 at the British Masters and has some good results in the US majors as well so he won’t be intimidated by the competition. He ranks 12th on the European Tour in SG: ATG and 2nd in scrambling.

Making Picks: The Open Championship (UKBOPBHMTQ)

Editor's note: When it came time to roll out our (long overdue) new website we wanted to do something celebrating the people we've met through golf and the places that are still out there for us to explore. We've only scratched the surface on who we need to meet and where we need to go. Jim Hartsell embodies that spirit to the fullest. I met Jim through Sweetens Cove a few years ago and we became fast friends. He's spent the last two-and-a-half decades exploring Scotland and digging deeper than nearly any American I know, non-Tom Coyne division. As an Registered Building Architect, he brings a unique perspective to golf travel, both on and off the course. We're thrilled to roll this series out over the next few months and hope you enjoy. - Tron

Authors note: Please purchase a copy of The Links Diary Issue #1 (

) for my previous story on Cullen Links, also featuring George Clark, TC & Big Randy

It was on a stunning afternoon on the Moray coast. The lunch rush was winding down in the Cullen clubhouse (green fees are paid at the bar) as we entered the tidy and comfortable dining area/bar. George Clark was holding court with his wife Anne and several friends, as two hungry Americans entered.  We introduced ourselves and George invited us to join the table, “Have you had your lunch?” he asked. When we responded that we had not, George immediately sprang to work, going straight to the bar manager, who came over to take our order. “We are almost out of soup, but I think we can manage,” she said kindly. In less than10 minutes, we had our soup and ham and cheese toastie - along with a pint of Tennent’s. Is there anything better than lunch in a Scottish clubhouse?

Cullen Links. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

In Ian Nalder’s excellent 2000 book, “Scotland’s Golf In The Day’s Of Steam,” he details how the convoluted Scottish railway system impacted the development and popularity of golf, especially along the east and west coasts. Courses such as Cruden Bay, Turnberry, Machrihanish and Brora owe much of their early success and development to the Great Northern Railway, the Great North of Scotland Railway, the Highland Railway and others. Cullen was founded with 9 holes in 1870 (or 1879 depending on varying accounts) a few years before the railway line reached the area. In 1892, the club invited the great Old Tom Morris to revise the links, which he did in characteristically brilliant fashion. Realizing that the economy of the town could be greatly enhanced by tourism, the club expanded to 18 holes (around 1904) and started to promote itself as easily accessible by train from Glasgow and London.

There is a massive and elaborate 1884 railway viaduct that signals the entrance to the magical links of Cullen and this lovely seaside fishing village. A local Earl who lived at the nearby Cullen House, insisted that his family and guests travel only by The Highland Railway, in which he had a financial interest. He refused to use the local Cullen station, which apparently led to the construction of this viaduct.  Whatever the reasons for its’ existence, the viaduct offers a stunning entry gate to one of the great places in Scotland.

In my story on Cullen which appears in The Links Diary #1, a journal started in 2020 by the brilliant young Scots Jamie Darling, Kenny Pallas, Stuart Currie and Graeme McCubbin, I describe many of the holes designed by Old Tom on this ancient golfing ground. There is a legend that the local vicar severely chastised three young men for playing golf on the links on the Sabbath in 1641. I can understand why these boys risked the wrath of God. There is a feeling a Cullen that is hard to describe. There is a sense of 

 and history – that this is true, unadorned Scottish golf, perhaps even the way it was played 120 or 360 years ago.

We had been introduced to George by Big Randy of No Laying Up a few weeks prior to our trip.  He graciously agreed to drive up from his home in Aberdeen to meet us at his beloved club, where he and his wife Anne are former club champions – Anne an astonishing 19 times. George grew up in Cullen and is the course’s greatest ambassador. He is currently the president of the Northeast District of Scottish Golf. They assist the Scottish Golf Union, the sport’s governing body, with competitions in the area and the implementation of the new World Handicap System. In all my golf travels over the years, I have never met a nicer gentleman and greater advocate for Scottish golf.

Club Champions at Cullen Links. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

In the best Scottish tradition, George Clark does not tarry during a round of golf. He flies around Cullen, dispatching shots quickly and efficiently. However, I do not want it to seem that we were rushed – quite the opposite.  There were several points in the round where we stopped to discuss the history of the game or for George to point out some important landmark in the distance. The Scots allow sufficient time for enjoyment and conversation during a round - yet strive to finish with a haste that is unmatched anywhere in the world. It is a joyous way to play the game and one that is rarely found in the USA. A slow round of golf drains your body’s energy. You almost always feel refreshed after the constant movement of a game of golf in Scotland – unless caught in a sudden hurricane on the 11th hole somewhere.

George is a knowledgeable student of golf history. As our threesome progressed quickly around Cullen, we discussed the relative merits and weaknesses of the various Open Championship venues – and certain players we both admired. We paused on the 9th tee, my favorite hole at Cullen, and had a discussion that I made note of in my journal later that night. Out of the blue, George asked me who I thought was the greatest player of all time.

George discussing the history of the game. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

Without hesitation, I responded, “Nicklaus.” “Why do you reckon Jack and not Tiger?” he replied. “Well, he had 16 top 5 finishes in your Open Championship alone. He could have won it 12 times,” I said. “Aye. He was always there or thereabouts. By the way, I agree with you. I just wanted to see what you’d say,” he said with a smile.

Much of the greatest excitement at Cullen occurs around the 3 giant red stone obelisks, known as “sea stacks,” in play on several holes. I must make a special mention of the 13th hole in particular, a one-off in my experience. It is a 127-yard par 3 that plays completely blind over the tallest of the red monoliths, to a small perfectly sited green cut into the base of the cliff. If Old Tom is responsible for this one hole alone, that is enough for me. It is a hole that will make you laugh out loud and appreciate the sheer brilliance of Scottish golf.

11th Green at Cullen Links. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

12th Green at Cullen Links. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

16th Green at Cullen Links. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

George talked a lot about how much he had enjoyed playing with the No Laying Up boys. He mentioned (with a laugh) that he sometimes gets recognized in Aberdeen from his appearance on the NLU Tourist Sauce episode on Cullen.  We paused to have our picture taken by an NLU sponsorship sign on the 15th tee, while he praised Tron and Phil (he never once said Big Randy) for all the exposure they had brought to the course. Visitor play was up 15% over the previous year, he told us proudly.

15th Tee Marker at Cullen Links. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

I did not measure the time of our round, but I believe we played in 2 hours and 40 minutes. As we said our good-byes to our new friend in the small car park, we mentioned that we planned to play the relatively unknown Covesea Links – 40 minutes up the road - before dark.  Knowing that we had already played 18 holes at Fraserburgh that morning, George eyed me a bit skeptically. “Are you sure that’s wise?” he said with concern, mixed with humor.

My response was on slightly defensive. “Well, we are in Scotland and have enough daylight to drive there and play 9 more holes.”

Waiting on the fairway to clear. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

“Aye, I understand,” replied Mr. George Clark.

Cullen Skink is a thick fish soup that is served throughout Scotland, but especially in the Moray area. It originated in Cullen and was once seen as simply a good way to use leftover smoked haddock. A food that was once seen as a simple and modest form of traditional cooking is now a revered national dish. I love it. Jake and I had it several times as a starter on our trip.

That night, after we did manage to play 9 holes at Covesea, we had a particularly good bowl of Cullen Skink in Lossiemouth. I asked our friendly waitress if she could tell me the recipe. “Ah, it’s not much at all really. A bit of onion, potatoes, milk and haddock.” I vowed to attempt to make it myself and have come up with an American version that is passable. Smoked haddock is not widely available in my area of the US, so I have improvised.

4 large Yukon gold potatoes, peeled, diced, cooked and mashed

Melt the butter in a medium to large saucepan. Add the chopped onion and cook on medium heat until clear. Add the milk, liquid smoke and some of the parsley or chives and bring to a simmer for about 3 minutes. Add the cod filets and simmer until cooked, about 5 minutes. Remove the fish with a slotted spoon and place on a plate to the side.

Add the mashed potatoes, salt, pepper and simmer for 1

Flake the fish into small pieces and stir into the soup. Check to see if you need any more salt or pepper. Top with extra chives or parsley.

This should be served with sourdough bread. At least that is how I do it. I will probably be banned from Scotland for using cod instead of smoked haddock. Cheers!

Hidden Scotland: Cullen Links

Detroit Golf Club is one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour, but that doesn’t mean our bets did any better! Congratulations to Cam Davis on winning the Rocket Mortgage Classic in a playoff over Troy Merritt and Joaquin Niemann. Let’s walk back our picks before looking at the John Deere Classic!

kept it simple and made just two plays last week, on Bryson DeChambeau to win and his boy Chez to finish in the top 20. Bryson, of course, had his caddie Tim Tucker leave the night before the tournament and that bet was a loser before it even started! Wait til you all see what Neil has in store with Chez this week!

together this week because they both went 1-4 and both had the same winning bet, on Lauren Coughlin to finish in the top 20 for a whopping +450! DJ also bet on Bryson to win last week and some other losing position bets, while Randy was on Will Zalatoris in Detroit and Lee6 on the LPGA Tour, among others.

had a win bet on him as well that lost, but he did hit a juicy 4/1 top 20 on Hank Lebioda. TC finished 1-4 with his other losses on Mark Hubbard, Robert Streb and Anne Van Dam.

went 0-5 last week, but maintains a BIG lead on the rest of the field as we run out of weeks left in the season. He, too, was on Bryson to win as well as Max Homa and was also on Kokrak, Zalatoris and Higgs to finish in the top 10.

For the Walk It In guys, Mark got killed by Bryson and caddiegate just like Soly, Neil and DJ. Of course Tim Tucker quit the week he put five units on one play for the first time in Walk It In history! Jeff had a winning week again thanks to Cam Davis and Jason Kokrak top 20’s!

Now we turn our attention to TPC Deere Run and The Renaissance Club for the John Deere Classic and Aberdeen Scottish Open, respectively. Our last tuneup before The Open!

If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Mark is away and goes first at TPC Deere Run!

: TPC Deere Run is a very similar setup to what we saw last week in that it’s short and easy with wide fairways and lots of scoring opportunities. Last week I predicted that Joaquin Niemann would have no problem in Detroit despite being 130th in driving accuracy and he went 72 holes without a bogey before losing in a playoff. Same story here so I’m targeting accuracy with the irons/wedges and putting on these slower-than-average greens.

I’m happy with last week so I’m taking an ain’t broke don’t fix it approach this week. This course is short like Detroit Golf Club, and it’s another birdie fest. I’ll stick with those on the top end of the birdie or better % on the PGA Tour and look for a mix of hot putters and MIA putters to see if I can get some luck.

Wise has two top 10’s and three top 20’s in his last five starts so he’s in really good form and he’s extremely accurate as he ranks 9th on TOUR in GIR% this season and 22nd in SG: T2G. He’s 127th in driving accuracy, which is slightly better than Joaquin Niemann, who had no problems on a similar course last week, so that is not a concern at all for me.

Another guy I love this week, Lebioda has a T4 and T5 in consecutive weeks and I’m hoping he continues his hot streak. He’s got four top 20’s in his last five starts overall and ranks 24th in GIR% and 37th in putting this season.

Perez was T14 last week at Rocket Mortgage and T10 at the Palmetto Championship a few weeks before that - both easier courses with weaker fields. In his last 16 rounds, he ranks 27th in the field in SG: T2G, 22nd in SG: Approach, 24th in SG: Around the Green and 12th in SG: Putting.

ZJ’s history here is simply too good to pass up for ANY kind of action so here we are, even if this is a pretty public play. He has a win and six top 5’s in the last 10 years at this tournament, which is crazy. As our friends at NLU like to say, the home game model is through the roof right now.

I like Streelman on short tracks. It’s another opportunity to play at a place where he’s played well in the past, and he’s bringing a really good game with him this week. He’s 3rd in this field T2G in the last 12 rounds, and 53rd in birdie or better %. Not to mention, he’s a wedge maestro.

I’ve picked Ghim before, and he’s let me down. Like Mark said on the pod, I have my guys and I’m probably close to hooking a Ghim car to this train. He hasn’t cashed yet for me, but this could be a good week. His putter has been horrendous so I need some magic there.

Hank Lebioda Top 3 American (+800) - .5 unit

After a T4 and a T5 among all nationalities the last two weeks, I’m going to take the juicy 8/1 number he can finish as a top American at the John Deere too. In his last 16 rounds, Hank ranks 14th in this field in SG: T2G, 2nd in Putting and 29th in SG: Approach.

I’m not sure I’ve ever bet on Scott Stallings before so welcome to my card! He finished T25 last week at the Rocket Mortgage and has a pretty good history at the John Deere, going 18-MC-5-16 in his last four tries. He’s 36th in GIR% and 31st in SG: Approach this season.

The two guys I love the most this week, at very long odds given their form and statistics coming in. Aaron Wise ranks 6th in the field in SG: T2G and 13th in SG: Approach over his last 16 rounds. That form and his results just doesn’t add up to his 40/1 number. Same goes for Lebioda at 55/1.

Mito, pal, I butchered your last name on the pod. I’m sorry, but let’s all be happy this week with a little contention leading into your Olympics bid for Chile with Niemann. Pereira has played well on the Korn Ferry Tour so I hope he can keep it going.

Three win bets this week. Mark pointed out that Mav is now connected to the train, and he almost paid off big last week with the Top 10. He came just short but played very well. I’ll trade that for a top 10. He loves short courses, and this fits the mold. Sungjae is finally back in good form after a poor run in late spring and into summer. He’s 27th on the birdie or better leaderboard this season so I’d love to see his putter continue to hold up. Lastly, Aaron Wise, who is on a great run of form. Mark and I are both eyeing him this week, and hope we can both bring it home.

Making Picks: John Deere Classic

Happy 4th of July weekend to everyone out there! Enjoy the weekend on a golf course, body of water, backyard bbq, or wherever you’re celebrating. For some on the PGA that is the city of Detroit for this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. Let’s recap last week’s showing from the NLU and Walk It In side before turning our attention to this week.

Congrats to Nelly Korda on a huge win at the Women’s PGA Championship. She weathered it all (including Lizette Salas’ remarkably slow pace) to win the two horse race over the weekend. And let’s use that to shoutout 

for a heck of a pick on Nelly Korda at 14-1 to win. What a huge week for Neil to cut the Randy chain that was dragging him down and breach! 14-1 on Korda AND Madelene Sagstrom 5-1 for a top 20. Both hit for Neil, and that gives him honors over the rest of the crew this week.

 was the other to find paydirt with Korda’s victory, and he double dipped on a +188 Top 10 ticket on Korda so he was handsomely rewarded for her fine play this weekend. The rest of the card (namely Matt Wolff) was a bit of a tire fire, but he and Neil were all over the LPGA this week and it paid off mightly!

both found a winning ticket on Madelene Sagstrom’s Top 20 along with Soly and Neil. Madelene deserves a shout out as the NLU Young Hitter continues to show her prowess on the LPGA Tour. 

didn’t have much else doing this week, but the 5-1 Top 20 on Madelene is a really nice win this week to stay out of the red.

was on Madelene for a Top 20, but missed the other bets this week. He does stay in the green and within striking distance of Soly!

On the other hand The Franchise stepped in for 

 this week, and was oh so close to hitting Leishman for a win bet at 70-1. Leishman missed the playoff by a stroke after a hard charge on Sunday. The Homa, Hadley, and Finau bets never stood a chance and sank the same way Randy has down the leaderboard. With Neil’s big week Randy is going to need a miracle this summer to climb out of last place.

On the Walk It In side it was Jeff who sneaked out a winning week thanks to Sam Burns +275 getting into that Top 20. The rest of the card was a bit spotty thanks to Streelman blowing up on Friday. Mark had a losing week, but not by much. Thanks to Bubba hanging on for dear life down the stretch for a top 20. That bet was nearly minted until the bogey train hit across the final five holes for Bubba. Tough for those with a win bet on him.

This week we’re in Jeff’s home state of Michigan. What kind of magic can he bring to another undercard event?!

If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Mark is away and goes first at Detroit Golf Club!

: The last two years of this tournament have proven that Detroit Golf Club is one of the easiest tracks to be played on TOUR, with the winners shooting 25 and 23 under par. The fairways are wide and the rough isn’t penal so driving accuracy doesn’t concern me at all. Instead, I’ll be looking at scoring average, birdie average and even eagle average as there are three reachable par 5’s here. Putting is also important because you’ll fall behind quickly this week if you’re not draining your birdie putts.

Bryson and Wolff playing well here last year setup the US Open showdown as well. Bombers that are going to hit it a mile and just play the lie. It’s a shorter course with the full slate of par 5s. Last year we saw the winner at -23(!!!) so it’s a birdie fest. I’m looking for distance off the tee and birdie or better % as my key stats beyond SG: Approach this week. I might sneak in the putter volatility this week and find a few guys with a hot flat stick or a guy or two with a dreadful one and hope to catch some magic.

Bryson DeChambeau Top 10 (+105) - 5 units

The first ever recorded five-unit play on Walk It In! Bryson is a massive favorite in this event and is the defending champion after tearing this course apart en route to -23. He ranks 1st on TOUR off the tee, 30th in putting, 7th in scoring, 1st in eagles and there’s so much more I could add. I love him this week.

A modest two-unit play here, the wide fairways in Detroit will be easier to find for Niemann and from there, his scoring can skyrocket. He’s already 8th on TOUR in scoring and 18th in birdies and that’s with a 130th ranked driving accuracy. This course sets up very nicely for him as evident by his T5 in 2019.

Here’s a guy who is playing well, having made five straight cuts with two of those being top 10’s. He also likes Detroit Golf Club because he finished 21st last year and runner-up in 2019. I’m not going to overthink this - I’m just going to expect 2.25x my investment here.

My Austrian olympian! If you listened to this week’s podcast already then you know I’m using that to beef up Straka’s street cred, but he was T10 last week at the Travelers and has 11th and 8th place finishes in his two years at the Rocket Mortgage.

My first masher on the board this week is also the best putter in this field in the last 36 rounds. Kokrak has two wins this season and that putter is a big part of the success he’s found. He can get scoring opportunities and make the most of those. He needs to if he’s going to get to -20.

Thin to win! Will Z has quieted down from his torrid pace earlier this year, but his stats show that he’s still performing. He hasn’t been at the top of leaderboards in a while, but he’s world class compared to this field. He pours in birdies (although his putter is an adventure), and he has the distance.

Win bets on three of the guys I like most this week, highlighted of course by Bryson. We don’t generally advocate for making win bets on odds this short, but if you feel good enough about something then there are spots to do it (

see: Rahm at the US Open, DJ in November’s Masters

). Bryson is definitely, maybe going to win this week. If he doesn’t, I love the long odds on Redman and Straka.

One more Straka bet for good measure! I highlighted his finish last week and success at this course, but he is also more than .6 strokes per round better putting on Poa Annua greens. Given how well he hit his irons last week, if he gets into scoring opportunities, he can convert them.

He’s a household name now with his win down in SC the other week. He’s got a really nice game that was showing up on the European Tour as well. I like his distance this week to be another asset, and I think his momentum carries over this week. He only missed the cut by a stroke last week at TPC River Highlands.

This one is truly a flier. Cam Davis hasn’t been sharp lately but he is a bomber. He busted onto the scene at AmEx earlier this year in Southern Cal, and I think that those are vibes he can find again on a course he can bomb it at. He’s 16th in distance on tour this year so maybe it’s a shot to deploy the Bryson strategy.

I love Mav on a shorter course. He plays well at Pebble Beach and these shorter courses, and Detroit Golf Club should fall in that same category of short courses because it’s flat and the ball should run out for days. He’s actually got some distance too - let’s see the club twirls this weekend, kid!

Already profiled Will, so let’s get some win equity here as well.

Making Picks: Rocket Mortgage

The US Open has come and gone and two of the NLU crew plus one Walk It In host correctly predicted the favorite Jon Rahm would take home the hardware. Let’s walk back last week’s picks before turning our attention to The Travelers Championship.

‘There’s nothing wrong with picking the favorite when you know he’s going to win’ - 

DJ talking that truth after putting nearly a quarter of his nuggies on Rahm to win last week. He was also pretty heavy on Bryson and Kokrak, which didn’t work out, but a win is a win!

 dug himself a hole a few weeks ago, but bounced back nicely as he also bet on Jon Rahm to win. It was one of three win bets (Hovland and Finau the others) and then he lost top 20 bets on Fleetwood and Leishman, but a comfy, winning week for TC. 

went 1-4 this week and remains the Draft King after hitting a Brooks Koepka top 10 at +175. His losses were win bets on Morikawa and DeChambeau as well as a top 5 on Will Zalatoris and a top 10 on Marc Leishman. Look out for Soly’s coverage of the KPMG Women’s PGA this week!

was hoping Xander Schauffele would break through and win his first major at Torrey Pines, but it wasn’t meant to be. That bet was part of an 0-5 card for Neil as he also lost top 4 Englishman bets on Poulter and Wallace as well as a top 5 bet on Patrick Cantlay and a top 20 on Max Homa.

, who we saved for last because, well, he’s now missed 25 straight picks and is in dead last by a good margin. We’ve all been there as gamblers to some extent so we’re all encouraging him to keep shooting, but he won’t be making his own picks for the Travelers as he pays off a Pouch of Misery. As for his US Open bets, he wasn’t THAT far off on his Rory and Morikawa win bets. He was further off on a 50 nuggie parlay, Garrick Higgo to be top South African and Matt Fitzpatrick to finish top 4 in a nationality prop. Keep your head up, Randy - we’ll get out of this hole soon, maybe.

It was a great Father’s Day for Mark as he celebrated another monster major week, finishing up nearly 13 units! Jeff called him the Brooks Koepka of golf betting podcasts and was proven right yet again after Mark hit bets on Rahm to be top 20 after Thursday and US Open winner as well as a Collin Morikawa top 20. Jeff didn’t have as good of a week at Torrey Pines, but he had been in excellent form and hopes to regain it at TPC River Highlands, the site of this week’s Travelers Championship.

If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Jeff is away and goes first at TPC River Highlands!

The US Open might be one of my favorite tournaments but sheeeeesh I was ice cold on the betting card. I need to find that distance between me and Mark again on the season standings so I’m going back to what works on the course. Greens in Regulation. I want ball strikers and GIR savants this week. Short course so dial in those wedges and pour in the birdies.

: Jeff wasn’t lying - I show up in majors! After a really good week at the US Open, I’m trying to keep it going at the Travelers by betting on accuracy and putting. This is a really short course and I anticipate lots of birdies so scoring average and birdie average matter this week too. As always, course history is big for me and there is a lot of data here to be used.

Sticking with it. He had a sloppy front 9 on Friday and battled back to miss the cut by a stroke and a 12 foot putt on the 36th hole. His proximity and iron game is still really strong. Last week was a blip in my eyes, and I think he’ll be back to continue his winning ways from May.

He hasn’t played here since 2013 but he was 13th then and 13th in 2010. He’s coming off a Top 10 and a T11 at Memorial. He’s been putting in the work, and his numbers in all categories are improving in his last 36 and last 12 round splits. This is some really good value.

Streelman has rattled off a number of Top 20s and Top 10s in a row. He’s on quite a heater in the last five tournaments. He’s so steady at short courses thanks to an accurate driver and being 20th overall on the Tour in GIR%. All his SG numbers are trending in the right direction too. It could be a big week for Streelman.

Harman is someone who is extremely accurate off the tee, ranking 32nd in driving accuracy this year. If he has his irons and wedges dialed in, he’s also 17th in putting on TOUR so I expect him to make a lot of birdies this week and be right up there in contention on Sunday.

Jeff nailed his handicap on the head with this one. I love the way Rickie is trending and think this is some really good value for a top 20 bet. Congrats are also in order as he just announced a pregnancy!

Rickie Fowler (-114) over Adam Scott - 1 unit

We mentioned why we like Rickie this week and he is in much better form than Adam Scott recently, who has gone 54-MC-T16-T35 in his last four starts. In their last 16 rounds, Fowler ranks 24th in the field in SG: T2G while Scott ranks 68th.

The all-time money leader at this event and 3x winner, this is purely a course history play for me. He’s not in the best form the last few weeks, but did have a really good April and May and obviously loves TPC River Highlands.

One of the most accurate golfers on the PGA Tour, Grillo is a perfect fit for shorter courses like this one. He is 2nd on TOUR in GIR% and 1st in proximity. He’s never missed the cut at River Highlands and finished 2nd at Harbourtown earlier this year, which is another short course.

Three pack of winners this week. It’s the GIR% and accuracy for me with Ancer and Grillo. They’re elite with their irons through the bag, and should put themselves in serious position for birdies this week. Ancer is 25-1 because he actually makes putts. Grillo, less so, but you got to bet on the wild swings of a putter and hope to catch lightning in the bottle.

Wise is a really interesting one to me. He’s not super accurate with his driver, but is 8th on tour in GIR%. He’s just like Grillo where you need to catch the hot putter. I would rather put my money on an 80-1 ticket with a really strong iron game and hope the putter follows suit.

Ancer over Niemann / Fowler over Scott / Wise over Tringale / Burns over Redman / Casey over Cantlay

Ancer, Fowler, Wise, and Burns have all been covered. Casey loves this place and is a consistent top performer. Maybe not a winner, but a top performer. I like his overall game and he flashed it again in tough conditions at Torrey. 19-1 is a juicy number, but 5 matchups is no small task.

I love the New England guy this week almost as much as he loves this course. Keegan missed the cut here last year, but made nine straight before that, including a 2nd place in 2019. He’s been inside the top 30 in every tournament since March except for his MC at the Memorial and I think he’ll keep it rolling in Connecticut.

How about three win bets on the guys I love most this week?! Harman loves this course and over his last 16 rounds ranks 25th in the field in SG: T2G and 15th in putting. Bradley also plays great here and is playing really good golf (5th in SG: T2G and 9th in SG: Approach over his last 16 rounds). I don’t want to miss out on a Rickie Fowler win, especially at this price given his improvement the last few weeks.

Making Pics: Travelers Championship

What a week for Walk It In and the NLU5. It was a somber tone though for TC after his parlay shenanigans a few weeks ago at the PGA Championship. His public apology hit the airwaves just before Palmetto, and we’ll see what is in store for TC through the rest of the summer.

Let’s start with our rightful Draft King, 

, who spent the majority of his weekly nuggets on the LPGA Mediheal Championship. He didn’t have the right combo with his win bets (Shanshan Feng) and top 5 (Lydia Ko and Inbee Park) but his top 10 bet on Angel Yin did just sneak in with a T9. It was the only win of the week for Soly as Ian Poulter failed to contend at Congaree.

Next on the sheet is the new mayor of the pouch of misery, 

. He went for a home run with Bianca Pagdanganan on a 40-1 ticket at the LPGA to win and she finished 64 places away from the top spot. We’ve now moved from just golf plays to golf + F1 to now golf + F1 + Euro 2021 with Randy’s Croatia and England tie bet. Still, no dice for the big guy. And probably his worst loss of the weekend was So Yeon Ryu beating out Danielle Kang in a group play bet by a single stroke to spoil the +450 bet on Danielle. You hate to see it. I hate to have to keep typing this but Luke List didn’t get the win and neither did his parlay after Brooke Henderson WD’d at Mediheal. Capital T Tough week for Randy.

is continuing to move in the direction of 

 when it comes to golf bets, but alas, he found a winner this past week on Novak Djokovic in a the French Open coming from behind by two...oh yeah this is a golf + F1 + Euro + French Open betting card now....sets to win! The +500 winner gives DJ a little momentum despite missing on Lydia Ko first round leader and win bets, along with a Koepka win bet and Shanshanfeng top 5.

 went winners only this past week and came up with L’s in hand. Brooks, DJ, Hatton, Fitzpatrick, Sungjae all made the card and all fell short. DJ and Hatton mixed it up a bit, but that’s what makes outright bets so hard at the top of the board when a 50-1 ticket hits on Higgo.

. His somber tone is gone and he’s back in action like a fugitive on the run. He took his 200 nuggie hit and then fired off five win bets to light those nuggies on fire too! Glover, Kisner, English, Fleetwood and Sungjae all fell to the mighty Higgo and resulted in a 300 nuggie hit. Over the last two weeks. The gap is widening between Soly and the field…

As for the Walk It In boys Jeff continues this nice run of form with five of his last six weeks being in the green. Although, just like Brooks Koepka, Mark is a big game hunter and typically shows up in major weeks. He picked up over 12 units at the PGA just a few weeks ago so he’s looking for more major mojo this week at the US Open.

If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Mark is away and goes first at Torrey!

: We talk about it on the podcast all the time, but the cream always rises to the top in majors and the US Open is probably examples 1, 2 and 3 of that given the difficulty of the setup each year. Golfers are familiar with Torrey Pines and that helps, but the rough will be longer, the greens will be dialed up and pressure will be on. I’m targeting strength off the tee most importantly and after that I will look at ball strikers and those who putt well on the Poa Annua.

Major week! I always have a tough time deciding between Augusta and the US Open as my favorite major. Augusta for its beauty. US Open for its carnage. This week will be a tough test at a long, rough infested Torrey Pines South Course. It’s going to look b.e.a.utiful this week though with the weather and conditions. For my approach I’m keeping it simple. I want guys who are average or above average in distance, play US Opens well in the past, and have a T2G game inside the top 50 in this field. This kind of test will put pressure on all facets of your game this week.

Jon Rahm Top 20 After Round 1 (+150) - 2 units

People still have questions about Rahm surrounding his COVID-related WD two weeks ago, but I think the betting favorite will come out firing on Thursday and leave no doubt who the best player in the world is *right now*. Rahm is 13th on TOUR in 1st round scoring.

The owner of five straight top 20’s (excluding the Zurich Classic, which is a team event), Morikawa leads the entire TOUR in SG: T2G, SG: Approach and GIR% - is that good?!

He admitted to being rusty coming into the Palmetto Championship last week and managed a T2 so I think the rust is off. Hatton doesn’t have the US Open success as some others on my card, but he’s playing great golf and is extremely accurate, ranking 13th in SG: T2G and 4th in SG: Approach.

Hasn’t played since he won the Charles Schwab a few weeks ago so he’s got to be recovered from that celebration, right? T29 at Torrey Pines earlier this year and T17 at the last US Open. Kokrak ranks 22nd in SG: Off The Tee and 5th in SG: Putting.

Ortiz finished inside the top 30 (T29) at the Farmers earlier this year and is coming off a T16 at the Memorial. In his last 16 rounds, he ranks 5th in approach and 19th in SG: T2G. He also gains over 0.6 strokes per round on Poa Annua greens over other surfaces.

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