TROON — There are years when the final day of the Open Championship can be a bit of a bore. It usually occurs when someone is playing steady-yet-surreal golf, and the weather is essentially benign. You know they’re likely going to hold on. Brian Harman’s triumph at Royal Liverpool immediately comes to mind. Louis Oosthuizen’s runaway win at St. Andrews would be another example. If you’re watching from the United States, you can smash the snooze button a few times.
And then there are years when you need to get your ass out of bed and make sure you don't miss any of what’s about to unfold.
I can’t tell you what’s going to happen on Sunday (and if I could, I’d pivot to running a gambling hotline) but there is a chance we might be on the cusp of a wild and entertaining final round. Potentially an all-timer for a Sunday. If you need any extra incentive to get in front of your TV before the sun comes up, here are five scenarios that could potentially play out.
1. BILLY HORSCHEL WINS HIS FIRST MAJOR.
In a world of robotic golfers, Horschel is like a cocaine bump of frenetic energy. (Editor’s Note for my parents and children: I have never done cocaine.) When he’s not fidgeting and fussing, he’s flushing his irons. I have no idea if Horschel can hold on and win. The only time he’s ever been in a position like this was the 2013 U.S. Open at Merion when he started the final round only two shots behind Phil Mickelson but bogeyed three of the first five holes to fall out of contention. But it’s hard to give too much credence to something that happened more than a decade ago. He could shoot 66 tomorrow or 81. I have no idea which is more likely, and Horschel probably doesn’t either. What we do know about Horschel is that he wears all his emotions on his chest. Go watch his weepy flash interview from a year ago after he shot 84 at the Memorial. I cannot stress how many professional golfers would blow off media after a round like that, and Horschel instead used it like a therapy session. He’s never been afraid to be vulnerable, even if it means people will use it against him. Does it seem, most of the time, like Horschel is pandering to the camera? Yes. Is he a bit of a cornball? Sure. As my colleague Neil said last night on the Live Show, Horschel is awesome but he is also exhausting. No one works harder than Billy, and Billy is happy to let you know that. I’m ready to lean into the part of him that’s awesome — the baton-twirling, gum-chewing, bogey-cussing, ball of energy. If this is his moment, the road he’s traveled to get here has been a joy to witness. He and his wife Brittany speaking up in 2017 about her struggles with alcoholism was truly courageous, and it’s hard to imagine a more emotional winner than him on Sunday. “I've worked my entire life to be in this position,” Horschel said. “I know what it means to my legacy in the game of golf and what I want to do and accomplish. I've wanted to be here my entire life. I'm finally here. I'm embracing it. I've wanted to be here my entire life. I'm finally here. I'm embracing it.”
2. XANDER SCHAUFFELE WINNING HIS SECOND MAJOR OF 2024.
It’s no secret that me and the rest of my NLU colleagues didn’t think much of the setup at the PGA Championship at Valhalla, and that made it hard to appreciate Schauffele’s accomplishment. Yes, he won a major. But it felt about as significant as a signature event. There was no danger lurking, and all Schauffele had to do was step on the gas. He also benefited from the strange circumstances that knocked Scottie Scheffler off his game in the middle of the week. The year’s final major is the exact opposite. There is a calamity lurking on every hole, yet he feels like the most unflappable player in the field. If Xander wins this week, it’s just more proof that he’s taken what he’s learned working with Chris Como and reached another level. I was dismissive of Schauffele when Rory McIlroy boat raced him in Charlotte this year at the Wells Fargo, but now that result seems meaningless in the grand scheme of things. I thought Xander would remain the same house cat he’s been for years, but right now he is (in my mind) the favorite to grab the Claret Jug. Two majors in one season, something that hasn't been done since Brooks Koepka did it in 2018, would permanently stamp Schauffele’s place in history. “I'll let myself dream tonight,” Schauffele said. “But it would be very nice.”
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3. JUSTIN ROSE WINS HIS SECOND MAJOR.
There are few things I love more than watching a venerable European player mount one last charge at glory when he’s in his 40s. If we’re being honest about Rose, it feels like he should have won more majors. His U.S. Open victory at Merion in 2013 was special, but the fact that he’s never nabbed a second makes it feel like he underachieved. This is almost certainly his last real chance. But if he were to win, it would essentially erase whatever past disappointments he’s had and cement his legacy. He can be ornery and off-putting on the golf course, but he is also thoughtful and kind when he steps outside the ropes, and it’s easy to imagine the Scottish fans showering him with support the way they did when he holed a clutch 6-footer for par on 18 Saturday to save a shot. It’s hard for Rose to put into words what an Open Championship would mean to him at this stage of his career, but there’s little doubt it would be the most satisfying win of his career. “It's still my dream,” Rose said. “In a few years, it'll be someone else's dream. But yeah, still my dream right now. Great opportunity to go live it out tomorrow.”
4. SCOTTIE SCHEFFLER WINS HIS SECOND MAJOR IN 2024.
Statistically, Scheffler is already having one of the greatest seasons of all time. He has been an artist who produces a ball flight to pure and repeatable, if you didn’t see his feet flying in strange directions after impact, you’d think it was hit by a robot. But by playing at a level we haven’t seen since Tiger Woods in his prime, Scheffler managed to raise expectations to a level where only one major in 2024 would carry a whiff of disappointment. He can turn a great season into one for the history books with a great round Sunday, but his putter needs to heat up to do it. On Saturday, he looked every bit like the most disciplined, creative player alive until he got to the greens, where he lost -3.06 shots on the greens. Yes, it looks like he’s wearing an oversized garbage bag that someone cut arm holes into when it rains. And yes, his putter makes you uncomfortable when he’s standing over a 5 footer for par. But if Scheffler is going to make a real run at a double-digit total for majors, this is the kind of opportunity he can’t let slip away. His third career major is right there within his grasp. “I think that was probably the hardest nine holes that I'll ever play,” Scheffler said. “It can be frustrating, but I felt like today was another one of those days where I just did a really good job of not getting overly frustrated, staying in a good head space and did a good job of really staying in the tournament.”
5. WE GET AN UNLIKELY WINNER FROM ONE OF THE REMAINING NAMES NEAR THE TOP OF THE BOARD.
Does Sam Burns really have the game to win a major championship? Before this week, I would not have said yes, but Burns has displayed as much grit as anyone. He was +7 after 11 holes on Thursday, but rallied a bit and posted 76. He followed it up with rounds of 69 and 65, and how he has a real chance to join his best friend Scheffler in the club of majors winners. I must confess, I did not see this coming. He’s certainly benefited from a good part of the draw (his 65 came in ideal scoring conditions) but sometimes that’s how the Open Championship works. The sun shines on certain people and not others. When Burns finished at 3-under, he was still far enough back that the media spent much of Burns’s time in front of a microphone asking questions about Shany Lowry. By the time Lowry finished (after shooting 77), Burns was two shots ahead of him.
I would have said the same thing about Thriston Lawrence, had I known who Thriston Lawrence was. I confess I was not familiar with his game, at least until Saturday when he surged up the leaderboard with a 30 on the front nine. Nothing about his game to me suggests he’s capable of winning, but crazy stuff happens often at the Open.
“I'm going to just try to do the same thing, be aggressive and try to win a golf tournament,” Lawrence said.
If Burns or Lawrence isn’t your cup of tea (or pint of beer), there are still plenty of other underdogs to root for. Maybe it’s Russell Henley, an unassuming American player who has won just four times on the PGA Tour and hasn’t ever contended in a major prior to this weekend.
“I don't know how many more of these I'll get to play in, hopefully a lot,” Henley said.
Maybe you can’t resist watching Dan Brown sneak cigarettes between holes, trying to hide his habit from his parents. Brown, the 272nd-ranked player in the world, has refused to go away since he shot a first-round 65, and is just one shot off Horschel’s lead, tied with Rose, Burns, Schauffele, Lawrence and Henley.
“I suppose a lot of people probably thought I was going to be shaking this morning and really nervous, but I've been absolutely fine,” Brown said. “I didn't know last night if I was going to wake up this morning, be nervous, sweaty, whatever it might be, but I think I felt all right, and I think I'll feel all right tomorrow.”
Lastly, there is Shane Lowry, the man who at one point on Saturday looked like he might be cruising to his second Open Championship. What a scene it would be, people started to muse, if Lowry could return to Royal Portrush next year as the defending champion of the Open. That dream isn’t dead quite yet, but it’s hanging by a thread after a deflating 77 in Round 3.
“This is going to take me a couple hours to get over today,” Lowry grumbled.
Whatever unfolds, we have a chance to witness a wild and memorable Sunday, maybe one of the wildest at a major since the 2021 PGA Championship at Southern Hills.
Did I forget to mention Justin Thomas? Don’t worry, he’s obviously too far back. Trust me, I’m never wrong about this stuff.
Kevin Van Valkenburg is the Editorial Director of No Laying Up
Email him at kvv@nolayingup.com
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