It was a relatively ho-hum tournament at Colonial with Kokrak and Spieth both limping to the finish line on Sunday, and despite CBS trying to pretend someone else could win it was always going to come down to those two. Jordan had 3 days of spectacular golf and one stinker.

 take the honors on the tee this week after hitting the outright Kokrak winner. He entered the week just under 500 nuggies back from TC, and a 35-1 winner is a really nice way to close that gap.  But he didn’t stop there. He had the hard charging Poulter for a top 20 (one of CBS’s guys they wanted to create some drama with) that cashed nicely over the weekend. Atta boy, Soly.

, on the other hand, kept the card tight this past week. Some say he was too hungover to do the research, but when you’re playing with a lead you don’t need to attack pins. Center of the green, boring golf - Neil knows about that! He took Kisner, Palmer, and Westwood this week for Top 20s, but none of them had the stuff to contend.

stays sandwiched between the boys and can’t really figure out which way he wants to go. He’s got the anchor that is Big Randy pulling him down, but he can’t quite fly with TC and Soly. He went heavy with Willy Z to win the tournament and his grouping at Colonial, but Willy Z was sluggish from the start. Sungjae continues to be pedestrian with the irons and never flirted with the top 10 bet. Harry Higgs dashed the rest of his card at Colonial, and Neil couldn’t find paydirt with Patty Tavatanakit at the Bank of Hope Match Play.

 managed to beach Neil and himself with the Willy Z play to win this past week. It was a made cut, but I don’t think I saw a single shot of him on the broadcast this week. Randy did come very close to Danielle Kang top 4 at Bank of Hope this week, but she fell to eventual champ Ally Ewing in the Quarters. One more for our guy came up just short as Spieth managed to save bogey on 18 to lock in a two stroke victory for Kokrak instead of the three stroke +600 payday.

Most weeks you could blindly write the pouch in for 

, but he breached for the PGA with two winning bets, and this week he stayed off the 0fer. It was only one, Scary Gary, but that did get him some nuggies in his pocket. His other picks, Morikawa Stallings and Conners didn’t play poorly, but none of them couldn’t muster up some West Texas magic. We’ll chalk the Braden Grace WD as some bad luck for Neil.

The Walk It In boys had another nice week with Jeff taking home near-double digit units and Mark breaking even. It was a flipped script from the PGA so the two of us are looking to find the magic in the same week. There’s some overlap on the card this week so we’re sinking or swimming together!

If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Mark is away and goes first at Colonial!

: It’s all about accuracy for me this week and it gets accentuated with Jack’s renovations bringing more bunkers and lots of trouble. The majority of my card features golfers with excellent driver accuracy as well as GIR and sand save percentages. Course history is still something I’m considering because Colonial won’t be completely foreign to these guys, even after so many renovations.

Jack wants to beat these guys up just the same way he beat up Mark and our buddies at Pinehurst No. 9 the other month. He’s got a history for a tough track that challenge you if you can’t find the fairway. I’m taking fairway finders, and one guy who can hack it out of the rough better than most guys. All of my guys will need to bring a good tee to green game with the usual focus on approach, and I’ll be looking for a few guys who feel comfortable here even with the renovations.

Pretty soon we’re going to need to release a spinoff of Walk It In called ‘Why We’re On Corey Conners This Week’ because he makes almost every card of mine/ours. After a T20 last week to keep his season rolling, he ranks 12th on TOUR in driving accuracy, 7th in GIR% and 8th in SG: Off The Tee.

Another repeater for me, but after a T3 last week, why would I go away from Hoffman now? He’s been in incredible form with eight top 20’s in nine events since March, he’s 30th on TOUR in SG: OTT and 5th in SG: Approach. Let’s keep riding the momentum.

The course has been renovated/redesigned, but it’s not going to be completely unfamiliar to these guys and Kuch has some excellent history at the Memorial. He won the event in 2013 and has four top 20’s (with two of those being top 5’s) since then with only one MC. He’s 23rd this season in driving accuracy and if he happens to miss the green and find himself in some of the new sand traps, he’s 12th on TOUR in sand saves.

Jeff likes to bet on this guy, but I’m going to take a turn this week because I love how he’s playing and he has some decent history here. Grillo’s last six starts on TOUR have gone T6-T2-MC-T14-T38-T8, he’s 33rd this season in SG: OTT, 9th in SG: Approach and 3rd in GIR%. He also has three top 25’s in this tournament.

Yup, I want it. I’m buying the shares after that Top 10 at Kiawah. What a perfect time to show form as he goes back to a course he’s played well at in his past. Just do it Rickie. Everyone wants to see you back on top. For Rickie it’s been mostly desert for the past year. Let’s find the oasis.

He’s a machine, and Mark has already laid the groundwork. I’m even more bullish on Corey this week.

Doug has made this list before, but he’s coming off a quiet T14 last week. His accuracy numbers off the tee are strong (37th on Tour), and his approach numbers have stayed consistent in the 36 and 12 round splits. His putter is so bad - I’ll grit my teeth and hope we make it there.

Billy boy! He’s played really well here in the past with multiple top 15s, and done so relatively quietly. I think this season continues to be a good opportunity for him to show he’s finding some new form as he reaches his mid thirties. His driver is 41st on tour in accuracy, and his pedestrian approach numbers are improving going in the past 3 rounds.

How about THREE bets on the ‘golden child’ this week at the Memorial?! Everything seems like it’s set up for a big week here as he has four top 10’s in his last five starts, he has a great track record at Colonial and he putted the ball much better last week at Charles Schwab. We’re going to try and score BIG with a top 5 bet, win bet and first round leader bet for good measure, as he ranks 9th on TOUR in round one scoring and was T1 after one last week.

Morikawa won a tournament on this course last year and while it wasn’t set up quite like the Memorial, he’s got the game to win here this week. There is nobody better in golf with their irons as he ranks 1st in SG: Approach and GIR% this season.  I rattled off a bunch of reasons earlier on why I love Hoffman and while he may not have a stellar history at Colonial, he’s playing too well to pass up on this number. If he’s in contention on the weekend, he’s got the experience and demeanor to grab a win.

Will there be a playoff? YES (+400) - .5 unit

Golf has been so exciting this season as a fan and I have a feeling in my stomach that we see a phenomenal Memorial tournament that could very well end up in a playoff. The quality of the field is super high and there are so many golfers talented enough to win big tournaments right now. I’ll take a Spieth/Morikawa playoff, please!

The stats don’t look good of late. He tore up the west coast, won at Genesis, and now with two straight missed cuts he’s 4-1 for a top 20? Give me that. He’s not been accurate this year as he’s gained distance off the tee, but I like good players to bounce back from a couple missed cuts.

Bryson DeChambeau to win (+1800) - .5 unit

Four pack this week of winners. Morikawa won the Workday here (not as tough of a challenge as The Memorial), but he’s as accurate with his driver as he is with his impeccable irons. Keegan is in a similar mold, playing well this year, and has played well in the past at Muirfield. Niemann takes us to a slightly different mold with the last two where he has good history here, but isn’t the most accurate driver. Then there is Bryson, he isn’t accurate off the tee at all, but when the rough is long he’s got the power to make up where other players struggle. Oh, and he’s won here before.

Making Picks: The Memorial Tournament

This season has given golf fans so much already and last week was no exception at the PGA Championship as 50 year old Phil Mickelson hit bombs and hellacious seeds for four straight days to become the oldest major winner in PGA TOUR history. Lefty shocked everyone in Kiawah Island, but maybe an even bigger surprise than him winning at 250/1 was every NLU expert winning at least one bet! Let’s walk those back before turning our attention to the Charles Schwab Challenge.

had the best week of the bunch thanks to a great three-man matchup parlay at +561 with Niemann over Matsuyama, Spieth over DeChambeau and Ancer over Hatton. His losses were a couple of top 5 bets (Fleetwood and Finau) and a couple of top 10 bets (Zalatoris and Smith).

 with two wins this week?! He nailed a couple of top 20 bets on Will Zalatoris and Keegan Bradley for a positive week while missing on Berger to win, Fleetwood to top 20 and Bryson to miss the cut.

The only guy in the group with Phil Mickelson exposure was 

, who bet him to finish top 40. What could have been if he stretched that a little bit further! That was his only win of the week as Randy lost two matchup parlays, Cam Smith to win the PGA and Madelene Sagstrom to win on the LPGA Tour.

had a 2-3 week by hitting Corey Conners and Keegan Bradley top 20’s. Did he follow Mark’s picks on Walk It In?! Soly put half his nuggies on Jordan Spieth to top 10 last week, which didn’t work out, and he also lost a Cam Smith top 10 and Viktor Hovland win bet.

had to go outside the sport of golf altogether to find a win this week as Max Verstappen won the Monaco Grand Prix at +130! His golf bets didn’t go as planned as Spieth, Berger and Rory let him down big time.

A pretty good week for the Walk It In boys as Jeff finished about even thanks to 7.5 units on Louis Oosthuizen and Charley Hoffman top 20’s. His win bets didn’t go as planned, but not a bad week! Mark had a great week and won over 6 units in Kiawah thanks to top 20’s on Ancer, Conners and Bradley as well as Joaquin Niemann easily taking top South American and Hovland easily beating Schauffele.

Now we all ride this momentum to Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge!

If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Jeff is away and goes first at Colonial!

The week after a major always hits hard. So much excitement, build up, and then we’re back to another ho-hum course and tournament. Even with so many top flight guys here this week that played at Kiawah, I’m going to move further down the card this week for my picks. I want guys who have the experience at this course, and bring the approach and OTT game with them.

: We’re at a completely different course than we saw last week at Kiawah Island. Colonial Country Club is “only” a 7,200 yard par 70 with small fairways, thick rough and lots of trees so my card will rely heavily on accuracy off the tee as well as greens in regulation. As Jeff mentioned, tournament history favors experience and all but one of my golfers this week have played here before as a pro.

I was very impressed by Grillo’s bounce back after shooting a 77 on Thursday, rallying to make the cut, and going -2 on the weekend. He’s played well at the comp course here (Harbour Town) and his stat profile still looks strong in the 36 round and 12 round splits. He should do more than just contend for a top 20.

We all have a horse we like to ride, and my Hidalgo this week is Charley Hoffman. He’s played this course twelve times and made the cut eleven times. He was 2nd in the field last week in SG: Approach and his putter let him down from really getting into the mix. I like the form and familiarity for Charley.

Fresh off a phenomenal bogey-free 65 Sunday at the PGA to cash a top 20 bet, I’m back to the well with Ancer. He’s from Texas so it’s basically a home game and he’s one of the most accurate golfers on TOUR, ranking 2nd in driving accuracy and 12th in GIR% this year. He hasn’t finished worse than 26th since late February, either.

Speaking of going back to the well, the most underrated golfer in the world led the PGA Championship after round one and hung on for another top 20. Conners is 10th on TOUR in driving accuracy, 8th in GIR% and finished T4 at the RBC Heritage recently, which is played on a similar course (Harbourtown).

After a T17 last week, Hoffman is rolling with 10 straight made cuts and he’s finished outside the top 20 only twice in that span. Over his last 16 rounds, he ranks 3rd in this field in SG: T2G and 7th in SG: Approach. He also has extensive experience at Colonial.

The only player on my card without PGA experience at Colonial, he’s too good not to bet on this week, especially at plus money for a top 20. Zalatoris had an impressive T8 last week, is 13th on TOUR this season in GIR% and 9th in the field in SG: T2G over his last 16 rounds.

Joaquin Niemann Top South American (+115) - 1 unit

Jeff is high on Emiliano Grillo this week so he’s probably rooting against this play, but I’m riding with my guy Niemann again this week to beat Grillo, Munoz and Vegas. Niemann doesn’t have the accuracy off the tee that Ancer and Conners do, but he is 14th on TOUR in GIR% and 2nd in scoring so it doesn’t matter to him.

Kokrak hasn’t missed a cut in eleven straight stroke play events in 2021, and has played here three times. Last year he came in 3rd in a loaded field coming off the COVID break. I think Kokrak’s game is well rounded enough with the flat stick and through the bag to contend this week.

I’ve covered the guys at the top this week already with Hoffman and Grillo. Horschel is intriguing to me because I think he’s continuing to make the case for a Ryder Cup inclusion. The guy strikes me as an “I won’t be denied” type and I think he continues to put it all out there week after week. He was T23 last week in a tough setting, and has performed solidly here before. At the bottom of the card is Patrick Reed. He’s a Texan with the all around game we’ve profiled here plenty of times. He played last year after having not played here for a few years. The reworked schedule gives guys the chance to revisit where they play and he wanted to play here...that says something.

Hasn’t had the strongest season, but is playing better lately and finished T9 in his last start at the Byron Nelson. Over his last 16 rounds, Redman ranks 13th in the field in driving accuracy and 41st in GIR%. I’ll take some of that at 4/1 for a top 20.

I told y’all why I love Ancer and Conners so much and you knew I’d put down a win bet on each of them after hearing why. I also like two longshots in Ryan Palmer and Chris Kirk. Colonial is Ryan Palmer’s home course and he has some very good history here with four top 6’s in the last 10 tries. He also has three MC’s, but the familiarity and success reigns supreme at 50/1. Chris Kirk won this event in 2015 and was playing some pretty decent golf up until two recent missed cuts. He’s 37th on TOUR in GIR% and 27th in this week’s field in driving accuracy over his last 16 rounds.

Making Picks: Charles Schwab Challenge

Major week!! We’re all looking to avoid Major Payne on the card heading into Kiawah because TPC Craig Ranch may have chewed us up and spit us back out. It was a birdie fest for the pros, but the NLU5 and the Walk It In boys were under water most of the week. Home game models be damned….

, he went with the home game model and pulled out every PGA Tour pro (close to everyone at least) from or living in the state of Texas for the card (close to at least). Ghim, Spieth, Bryson, Champ and Will Z all came up short. This would be the first of a major trend this week for the guys targeting the Texas crowd.

is still the Draft King, but it is now two straight weeks of slippage from our guy. He had Armitage, Schwaby (Matthias Schwab), and double R (Richie Ramsay) to place in the top 10, top 5, and top 20 respectively at the British Masters. None of these guys had the guts to get it done, and his picks at Craig Ranch didn’t fare much better with Scheffler not winning and Munoz coming 35 places outside the top 20.

 predicted, but KH Lee got it done in regulation so the juicy +400 on the playoff prop did not hit for him. He was right on with Koepka missing the cut, but Aaron Wise didn’t keep the hot streak rolling this time and failed to contend. Randy also eyed the British Masters and went with Chris Wood, his fellow slenderman, to finish amongst the Top 4 Brits which he did in a dead heat race with Willett and Pepperell. But the brilliance stopped there as Lucas Bjerregaard was cut and didn’t finish as the top Dane.

partnered up with DJ on the home game model this week and also got waxed by the model. Higgs, Ghim, Palmer, Dechambeau, and Scheffler all missed on his picks. He had Bryson outright which never had a chance with the way he putt this weekend, and the other placement picks with Higgs, Ghim, Palmer, and Scheffler all saw the boys either cut or finish outside the Top 45. No comment.

saw the sinking ship with Neil and DJ and hopped right on board without a bucket. He did hit on Spieth to top 10 even with the dead heat rules, but the rest of his Texas guys all came up short. Bryson to win, Scheffler to top 10 and Will Z to top 10 didn’t have the legs to stretch it out. He did have a close call with his Aussie pick on Leishman who just missed the top 20 bet.

Good news for the guys this week that the home game model applies to a much lesser crowd this week. Keep your lips off DJ! Mark did have a better week than JZ with his Sam Burns Top 20, and congrats to our guy on winning the Fore Horsemen Tour in Pinehurst last week. He’s bringing some of that mojo to the pod and the picks this week.

If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Jeff goes first at Kiawah!

If you didn’t bring it this week you’re not going to find it at Kiawah. What a monster of a course we have on our hands this weekend, and it’s one where the best should shine. I’m focused on a mix of 4 items this week: SG splits from last 36 rounds to the last 12 rounds (are you coming in playing better golf), scrambling, approach > 200 yards, and a combo of distance and accuracy off the tee. This will lend itself to the usual studs, but I think this is a week where you have to start and stop there.

: We keep hearing about length length length, but courses aren’t “too long” these guys in general. What makes Kiawah different, potentially, is the wind. Depending on the wind, some holes can be monsters, but I bet there will be some scoring opportunities downwind as well. I’m looking primarily for a combination of length AND accuracy off the tee and SG: approach. Players who perform well in windy conditions also helps and of course, recent form is big for me.

Louis is our favorite, “oh look there he is in the mix again at a major” golfer. He’s been playing well with 5 Top 20s since January in 9 events. I love his form from the 36 round versus 12 round splits in approach and OTT. He is above average in approach outside 200 yards (67th on Tour) and scrambling (24th on Tour).

I wanted some Euro flavor on the card this week, and it felt like Tyrell was going to win a few tournaments this spring after his 2020. He hasn’t, but the numbers are trending in a positive direction on the splits. He is electric with approach > 200 yards (4th on Tour), and he has a nice blend of distance and accuracy off the tee.

I have been off the Tringale hype train because he is the numbers darling. His stats pop in every single category I mentioned in my approach. He has a boom or bust flavor with cuts and Top 15s sprinkled into his last 5 events. I’m willing to take the boom and bust nature of Tringale this week.

I’m going to keep picking Conners until he gives me a reason not to. He’s got five top 15’s in the last three months, he’s 9th on TOUR this season in SG: T2G and 6th on TOUR in SG: Approach. On the entire TOUR! He’s a prime example of who I was describing when I mentioned length isn’t everything to me here. He’s 117th in driving distance, but 12th in accuracy and I think that’s super important.

Joaquin Niemann Top South American (EV) - 2 units

I’m all over my favorite Chilean this week baby! One of the longest drivers on TOUR, Niemann is 10th this season in SG: OTT, 34th in approach and 29th in putting. Has made the cut in all 16 starts this year and is flies way under the radar compared to some of the other youngins. For the South American prop, he just needs to beat Grillo and Munoz.

Another guy who is having an incredible year, Bradley finished 2nd at the Valspar and 18th at Wells Fargo so he’s rolling right now and also has great experience at the Ocean Course, finishing 3rd in 2012. He’s 5th on TOUR this season in SG: T2G and 8th in approach. If he putts decently, he has a shot.

Viktor Hovland (-110) over Xander Schauffele - 1 unit

Intriguing matchup here for sure! I LOVE Hovland this week as he might be my first or second choice to win the tournament so this is a no-brainer for me considering I don’t trust Xander to win a tournament of this magnitude. Hovland has two straight T3 finishes at the Valspar and Wells Fargo.

The big Aussie is playing terrific golf right now, doesn’t surprise anyone when he contends in majors and seems to love the course fit for himself this week at Kiawah. He plays well in windy conditions and his long approach numbers are crazy good. He ranks 2nd in approaches between 200-225 yards and 9th between 175-200 yards.

Talk about numbers jumping off the page - Abe Ancer hasn’t finished worse than 26th in a start since late February. He’s 3rd on TOUR in driving accuracy, 29th in SG: OTT and 12th in GIR%. Coming off a 2nd place finish at the Wells Fargo and a 5th at the Valspar before that. Also plays very well in majors.

There is way less of a boom or bust factor with Hoffman than there is with Tringale. Hoffman has been playing some incredible golf of late. His approach numbers in his last 12 versus his last 36 give me a little bit of pause here, but I like the stat profile everywhere else. He’s top 20’d in 6 of his last 7 events, and he had a nice run in majors in ‘17 and ‘18. He’s playing his best golf since then coming into this week so I’m all about Charley.

Rory McIlroy to win (+1800) - .75 unit (placed at Wells Fargo on Wednesday night)

One shy of a six pack here (I’d take Jordan Spieth to round out the six pack for the record), but this group of guys were my favorite on the spreadsheet in terms of splits, approach, scrambling, and distance/accuracy. Casey, Sungjae, and Hovland have the best combos of accuracy and distance you can find on Tour. Casey has been so consistent this year that it feels like he could get his first major here. I’m not worried about DJ’s knee and you shouldn’t be either. His splits look much better lately and he’s my favorite of the point and shoot guys. Hovland might be my best bet of the week given his form, but this Rory value could be hard to beat with his number down to +1100 in most places as of Wednesday morning.

Bryson DeChambeau to Eagle in Round 1 (+700) - .5 unit

Let’s start the tournament with a bang, shall we? If the wind is right, Bryson will be able to have a go at a couple of these par 5’s on Thursday and at 7/1, I’m going to take a shot that he converts. He ranks 5th on TOUR in total eagles made and T1 in holes per eagle.

Joaquin Niemann to win (+7000) - .25 unit

We have two favorites and a threesome of live dogs in my win bets this week. Let’s start with the longshots as I’ve already made position bets on Bradley, Niemann and Conners. All three of these guys are playing extremely good golf and in my opinion are severely undervalued at 70/1. Jordan Spieth is back as hell with only one finish outside the top 15 since February! Hovland is going to be a multiple major winner and it’s going to start sooner rather than later. He’s proven lack of course experience doesn’t matter to him and he’s proven he can contend in majors.

Making Picks: PGA Championship

This season has seen the “return” of some of the game’s top superstars after prolonged slumps had fans wondering if it could happen. I mean how about Stewart Cink, huh?! Two wins this season for ol’ tan lines after not winning since 2009!

But seriously, Jordan Spieth is back and now is Rory McIlroy back too?? He won his third Wells Fargo Championship this week, which was great to see after struggling over the last year or so. Speaking of struggling, No Laying Up’s gambling picks! Let’s walk those back before looking ahead to the AT&T Byron Nelson.

There were a combined two wins from the NLU boys this week - it was a bloodbath out there. Let’s start with 

, who bet on Rory this week and still went 0-5! His Rory bet was to be first round leader and not overall winner unfortunately so he got no nuggies for that and then he also missed on Max Homa top 20 and Maverick McNealy top 20. On the LPGA Tour, he picked Patty T to win it all in Thailand and he finished T3. He also tried shooting his shot on the KFT with Nick Hardy, but that didn’t work out either.

is still the Draft King, but he’s scuffling right now. He also bet on Patty Tavatanakit to win and in the same tournament had Madelene Sagstrom to finish top 5. On the Korn Ferry Tour, TC lost a top 10 bet2 on Isaiah Salinda and at the Wells Fargo, he lost Max Homa top 10 and Justin Thomas win bets. Put that together and you get another 0-5.

Everyone was on Max Homa this week, huh?! 

was the third member of the gang to go 0-5 and coincidentally also had Homa placement bets. He also picked Tony Finau to be top 10, Joaquin Niemann to be top 10 and Will Zalatoris to be top 20. Only one of those fellas even made the cut, woof.

Friend of the program Max Homa is going to think the boys put a curse on him this week because 

was on him too! Randy shared a few other losing picks with some of the boys, like Patty T to win and Sagstrom to place (this one in the top 10), but he did manage to win one of his bets thanks to Cameron Tringale missing a cut. 1-4 week for Randy.

was the top of the NLU class this week, going 1-3 with a canceled bet on Webb Simpson due to the last minute WD. Neil correctly picked Tommy Fleetwood to finish in the top 20 at +250, which was huge. His three losses were on Hovland to win, Xander to finish top 10 and HVIII to finish top 20.

The Walk It In boys are staying hot, but alternating the hot weeks! Jeff has picked the outright winner in two of the last three tournaments, including Rory at Quail Hollow. He also hit a Brian Harman top 20 and a big Aaron Wise top 20 at 5/1. What a week for Jeff! Mark couldn’t keep up the momentum from the Valspar and had a dreadful week, capped off by Xander losing three strokes in the final two holes Sunday to drop out of the top 10. Two WD’s (Webb and Villegas) didn’t help either. His chin remains up though!

This week, the TOUR rolls out a new course in TPC Craig Ranch in McKinney, Texas. It’s the final tuneup before the PGA Championship so let’s get right and roll 'em in!

If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Jeff goes first at TPC Craig Ranch.

I’m very happy how my card played out last week, and I want to keep this train rolling. I jumped on the McIlroy train and rode it to paydirt so who can I hitch the wagon to again? I like that this week has a bit of a wild card feel. It feels like those with really good form should keep it given the expectation of a birdie fest this weekend. Let’s keep an eye on the OTT and Approach sivants.

: I don’t know much about TPC Craig Ranch, but not many people do since it’s a brand new course in PGA Tournaments. One big consensus is it’s going to yield tons of scoring with fairways and big greens so I’m definitely taking a look at birdie average and putting this week. Without course history to help, recent form will be big for me, with the exception of one guy…

Hideki Matsuyama MISS CUT (+280) - 1 unit

Matsy hasn’t played since his historic win at The Masters after quarantining and parading around Japan, rightfully so. I’m betting that he’s going to be pretty rusty - and he wasn’t exactly playing well before his Masters win, either.

Another guy who hasn’t played since The Masters, and he had quite the opposite result there as Matsuyama. That said, if he’s in the field after playing so sparingly then it tells me he feels good. He ranks 18th this season in SG: T2G, 24th in SG: Approach and 6th in SG: Putting. In this field, I love his chances to be near the top of the leaderboard and we get plus money here to do it.

Coming off a win at the Valspar and T4 at the Zurich before that, Burns is in great form and I think he’s going to come out firing again this week. He’s T7 on TOUR this season in birdie average, is really hitting his irons well and is always a great putter. Sounds like a recipe for success.

This number feels too long for List. He’s 8th in this field in SG: T2G in the last 12 rounds and in the last 36 he’s 13th so his stats have been there. Mark makes a good point that the placings haven’t been there, but a T6 last week at Quail Hollow should bode well for this week’s birdie fest.

I wanted some Texas flavor, and the local guy from 45 minutes away checks that box. I’m not saying his game isn’t going to travel though. His approach numbers have fallen off in the last 12 rounds compared to his last 36, but he still hasn’t missed a cut since September. I expect the last two weeks at home will do wonders for him.

Si Woo has been so consistent in his last 36 rounds and his last 12. He’s been playing good golf for a while now, and sports the 16th best SG: T2G in this field in the last 36 and the 13th best in the last 12 rounds. I think his momentum continues this week. Beware, Si Wooooooooo is always a roller coaster.

The Big Aussie finished T5 at The Masters and then won the Zurich Classic with Cam Smith so he’s been feeling it and I hope it continues this week. Not as much of a scorer as some of my other picks this week, but I love his form and he’s been putting it well, ranking 7th in the field in putting over his last 16 rounds.

I went two units on a top 20 for Brooks and have to take a shot at the win bet at this number. He’s T14 in birdie average this year in addition to all the stats I mentioned above. Furthermore, you know Brooks wants to be in good form heading into a major.

I love this play. Rozner isn’t going to get the love stateside because he runs in the European Tour. 3 of his last 4 over there were T17 or better and included a victory. His stats through datagolf are field adjusted and he still stacks up well amongst this group of PGA pros. We’re not asking for a huge week, just compete and slide into the top 20.

Matt Fitzpatrick Winner (+2200) - .5 unit

Scottie Scheffler Winner (+2200) - .5 unit

One more Texan on the card and one guy from across the pond. Fitzpatrick has been steady eddy even though his approach numbers are only slightly above average for this group. The rest of his game is so solid around the green and off the tee that I’m hoping we catch a really good iron week from him. He’s close (5 of his last 6 not including match play are top 11 or better) and I think this is the week. Scheffler has seen this course before from his Texas days. He’s a prolific scorer when it comes to birdies and has a weapon on the tee. His approach numbers mirror Fitzpatrick, but his overall game has been there. I’d love either to be in the hunt this weekend.

Making Picks: AT&T Byron Nelson

Editor's note: When it came time to roll out our (long overdue) new website we wanted to do something celebrating the people we've met through golf and the places that are still out there for us to explore. We've only scratched the surface on who we need to meet and where we need to go. Jim Hartsell embodies that spirit to the fullest. I met Jim through Sweetens Cove a few years ago and we became fast friends. He's spent the last two-and-a-half decades exploring Scotland and digging deeper than nearly any American I know, non-Tom Coyne division. As an Registered Building Architect, he brings a unique perspective to golf travel, both on and off the course. We're thrilled to roll this series out over the next few months and hope you enjoy. - Tron

Cruden Bay Golf Club, A Birthday Celebration 

Much has changed since my first trip to Cruden Bay Golf Club in August of 1994. The course was then largely unknown to visiting American golfers, who ventured north of St. Andrews mainly to visit Royal Dornoch. I first learned about it from Michael Bamberger’s classic 1992 novel 

.  In those days, there was a sense of adventure and discovery in traveling to what was one of the world’s greatest hidden gems. The welcome extended to visitors in the small, utilitarian white clubhouse was warm and sincere. The course - designed by the impressive combination of Old Tom Morris and Tom Simpson - was wild, fun and an altogether unique layout. I am happy to report that these things have not changed in the intervening 25 years.  Cruden Bay remains one of the friendliest and most welcoming clubs in golf.  While it has climbed high in the world rankings since 1994 - and can no longer be considered “hidden” -  it is a course that must not be missed when visiting Scotland.

The Original Club House/Starters Hut at Cruden Bay. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

Change, when it does come, does not proceed with haste in an ancient place like Scotland. Unlike Americans, Scots generally take a more measured approach when considering things like road infrastructure improvements, rightfully taking the time to consider all the effects on their beautiful country. The drive up from St. Andrews was not an easy one in 1994. Today it is made with relative ease, given the completion of the A90 bypass of Aberdeen. This new stretch of motorway has cut at least 30 minutes off the total drive time. Not that I recommend bypassing the famed granite city of Aberdeen, but time is precious on a Scottish golf trip. While you may feel a slight pang of regret as you head north on the A90 at Stonehaven - knowing you are only 2 minutes from that wild and wonderful clifftop golf course - difficult choices must be made. I urge you not to bypass a day at Cruden Bay when planning your dream golf trip.

Walking from the car park around the beautiful modern clubhouse (another change since 1994) you are suddenly confronted with a panorama of dunes and linksland that is unmatched. In the distance stands the impressive cliff top ruins of Slains Castle - the inspiration for Bram Stoker’s Dracula - as if additional enhancement of this glorious scene is necessary. It is the most stunning “reveal” in golf.

Jim's 1994 Cruden Bay bag tag. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

It is believed that golf was played on this dramatic linksland as early as 1791. The genesis of the current links dates to 1894, when the Great North of Scotland Railway Company commissioned the course and a stunning hotel (sadly now demolished) to promote railway tourism. Old Tom Morris himself provided the initial routing. Cruden Bay Golf Club was founded in 1900. The current course layout dates to 1926 and is the work of noted English architect Tom Simpson.

As we arrived on a sunny May morning, the wind was already steady at 15 mph. Entering the brilliant pro shop (one of the best in Scotland) I was greeted warmly by Head Professional Neil Murray. Mr. Murray asked if I had played the course before.  I explained that I had played it many times, but it had been almost 20 years since my last visit. “Well, you will find it much the same as you remember, except for the 9th and 10th. We built a new 9th hole a few years ago and relocated the tee on the 10th", said the friendly pro. I was soon to find out the stunning effect this seemingly minor change had made to the physical experience of playing Cruden Bay. We talked about my memories of the course,  as I purchased several items from the well-stocked shop. I mentioned in passing that it was my son Jake’s first trip to Cruden Bay and it also happened to be his birthday. That off-hand comment led to one of the highlights of our entire trip.

The original clubhouse, one of my favorite buildings in Scotland, serves as the starter’s hut. At the time of our visit, it was being converted to a golf museum. The friendly starter greeted me and asked if an American called Chris could join our twosome, since it was his first visit to the course. I was happy to be a tour guide and found that I immediately remembered the correct lines off the tees - in spite of the almost 20 year gap in my experience. On almost every hole, there is an appropriate line that is most likely not readily apparent from the tee. One of the most joyous aspects of links golf is the strategy of where to land the ball on the ground. This is especially true on the tee shots at Cruden Bay. I think it may be the best “tee shot” course in the world.

Original Clubhouse at Cruden Bay. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

It’s difficult to think of a place that is more fun to play than Cruden Bay. The opening tee shot should favor the left side and must avoid a bunker, but in general does not cause excessive anxiety. The approach to the 2nd, to a dramatically raised plateau green, is one of the best approach shots on the course. At the 3rd, one of the great short par fours in the world, you start to enter the wild heart of the links. At 268 yards, the blind tee shot must land between dunes on both sides, which will funnel the ball down to the perfectly sited green. A well struck tee shot may result in an eagle try, but if you are too aggressive double bogey or worse is in play. This is a perfect golf hole.

3rd at Cruden Bay. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

It would be natural to expect a let down after the sheer joy of the 3rd, but it is not to be.  Quite simply, the 4th hole at Cruden Bay is one of the great par threes in golf. The tee is set behind the 3rd green, with the fishing village of Port Erroll and the river (called the Water of Cruden) to the left, and at 196 yards plays slightly uphill over a valley between the dunes and the river. The green sits perfectly among the massive dunes. Standing quietly on the 4th green at Cruden Bay, with the sound of the wind blowing through the grass covered dunes, it is impossible not to feel why Scotland is the true home of golf.

View of the 4th Cruden Bay. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

Beginning with the tee shot at the 5th, you enter the most mighty and towering dunes in Scotland. The next 4 holes are routed masterfully through these sandhills. It does not matter if Old Tom or English Tom gets the majority of the credit, the holes are all memorable and great. The burn fronting the green on the par five 6th is a lovely -  but devilish - wee stream that ensnares its fair share of golf balls.

8th at Cruden Bay. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

The 250 yard 8th is another drivable par 4, and is the physical and spiritual heart of the great links. Tom Simpson called the 8th "an outstanding jewel of a hole, mischievous, subtle and provocative, the element of luck with the tee shot being very high." It would be hard to argue with his assessment, even decades later. The 8th green does indeed sit like a jewel at the base of the towering gorse covered hills. Par in Scotland is in many ways irrelevant, but I love the fact that the 8th remains a par 4 and the club has never changed anything about the hole. In a lifetime of playing this game, it remains my favorite hole.

View from the 8th green at Cruden Bay. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

The view from the 8th green across the 16th hole, to the beach and ocean beyond, is stunning. As you make the steep ascent to the new 9th tee -to what may be the metaphysical summit of golf - it becomes apparent that the prior view at the 8th was only a prelude of the vista to come. The climb to the 9th tee at Cruden Bay is one of the more arduous I’ve ever encountered. However, the reward more than compensates for our momentary struggles. A few years ago, in an altogether brilliant design move, the 9th hole was shifted around 100 yards to the east, right along the very edge of the highest point on the grounds. As a result, a formerly average par four (by Cruden Bay standards) was transformed into one of the great par fours in golf. In my view - along with the 17th green at the Old Course, the 8th green at Machrihanish and the 11th tee at Dunaverty - the 9th tee at Cruden Bay is one the the spiritual epicenters of the game. You can’t help but take in the unparalleled view for several minutes, most likely in stunned silence. The details are always perfect in Scotland, so there is a bench by the tee to assist in your recovery from the climb.

8th fairway with 16th green. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

When the new 9th hole was created, the 10th tee was moved about 50 yards to the west. As an added benefit, this has made the 10th a much better hole.  Driving from the heights of the new 10th tee to the valley floor below is a great thrill. It is a wonderful and testing par 4, in what is likely to be a strong crosswind. The 11th is a nice par three  - and almost a certain bogey -  if the green is not reached on the tee shot. The 12th is a good par four, but thought by many to be the weak link in a stretch of otherwise incomparable golf holes. As we putted out on 12, I noticed what appeared to be another green in the distance, set against the impossibly blue ocean. This hidden green was an addition since my prior visits.  I made a mental note to try to find out more about it.

View from the 9th tee at Cruden Bay. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

The 13th runs along the ocean and is a truly great par five. The tee shot must avoid the winding burn and high grass along the beach. The 2nd shot should be played to the left side of the fairway to open up the approach into the massive green, which lies at the base of the dune mountain from which we have just recently descended.

View of 13 and 14 from the 9th tee. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

Whins, the 14th,  is another singular hole in my golfing experience.  The tee shot is played blind, from an elevated tee hard by the beach, to a fairway that appears non-existent. The aforementioned gorse covered dune is there to destroy any tee shot that has, as the great Prestwick caddie Chris McBride says, “Left-wing tendencies.” If the relative safety of the fairway is reached, one of the great blind approach shots of the world awaits. The almost rectangular shaped green is located over a dune down in a sunken pit, at least 15 feet below surrounding grade. I don’t know of any other green site like this anywhere in the world.  If you don’t have a smile on your face after playing this hole, then you probably shouldn’t be playing golf at Cruden Bay.

14th green at Cruden Bay. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

I have always viewed the 15th and 16th as two sides of the same coin. Back to back par threes, they continue the glorious madness that Old Tom and Tom Simpson have so thoroughly maintained for 14 holes. The 195 yard 15th is played over the end corner of the ever-present mountainous dune, blind and dog-legged, to a green which we can only trust is out there somewhere. I have hit everything from a full driver to a 9 iron on this hole. It is madness and sheer fun. The 16th finally breaks us free of the great dune’s clutches and is somewhat more conventional. It is played from an elevated tee to a beautiful green site set amongst the dunes. I once made a 13 on this hole in a 40 mph crosswind, en-route to a score of 106, with tee shot after tee shot flying wildly onto the beach. The very next morning I had a tap-in birdie 2, on the way to a handy 75. That is links golf in a nutshell.

15 and 16 at Cruden Bay. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

The 17th and 18th are good holes, though not as good as their predecessors, and serve admirably to take us out of the mighty duneland back to the welcoming confines of the clubhouse bar. The tee shot on the 17th must avoid an unusual grass covered mound in the middle of the fairway, thought to be the burial ground of Scots and Danes killed in a battle in the year 1012. Is the story true? I don’t know and honestly don’t care. I choose to believe it is. The tee shot on the 18th should favor the left for the best angle into the green, but out of bounds lurks along that entire side. We shook the hand of our new friend Chris and invited him to join us for lunch in the clubhouse bar.

Not enough can be said about the hospitality shown to us by the staff at Cruden Bay.  It is something I will never forget.  We had a wonderful and delicious lunch, complete with the requisite pint of Tennents. As we were finishing up our meal, the strains of the Happy Birthday song started to play over the sound system. Somehow the bar staff had also managed to insert Jake’s name into the song, as the dining room manager came out to our table with a shortbread and strawberry cake complete with a birthday candle.

Lunch at Cruden Bay. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

Les Durno, the great General Manager, came out along with the cake and introduced himself. A man who obviously loves Cruden Bay, we immediately struck up a conversation about the history of the course, the old railway hotel, and the brilliant changes to the 9th and 10th.  I mentioned that I thought the new 9th hole had put Cruden Bay at an even higher level in the golf world. “Aye, it has indeed. I remember walking out into the gorse with the architect on his first visit. You could see what a great hole it would be before we even started work. It’s been a brilliant change to the course.”  Curious about the hidden green I had seen behind the 12th, I asked Les about it. A smile lit up his face, “Ah, yes. That’s the alternate 12th hole. We play it in the winter. There are some that would love to make it a permanent hole, with some possible reworking of the 11th and 12th. You should play it when you go back out this afternoon. The wee tee is up in the dunes to the right.” We played the alternate 12th hole in the afternoon and it is a delightful par three. I can see why some members prefer it.

Birthday Cake at Cruden Bay. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

Les and I continued our splendid conversation for several more minutes, with the old clubhouse and railway hotel as a major topic. He then took me to meet the wonderful long time booking secretary Elaine Stephens, who I remembered talking to on the phone all those years ago in 1994. We spoke briefly about the old days of fax machines and actual written letters for booking golf reservations. As I was leaving to join my son for the afternoon round (with two complimentary drams of Cruden Bay whisky), Elaine said kindly, “I am so pleased you made it back to Cruden Bay.”

Whiskey at Cruden Bay. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

I may begin to sound a bit repetitive, but the food in the Cruden Bay clubhouse is excellent. You cannot go wrong eating lunch or your evening meal there - with the added bonus of one the greatest clubhouse views on the planet.

Room view from Cruden Bay Bed & Breakfast. Photo provided by Mr. Jim Hartsell

One of my favorite hotels of all-time, The Red House Hotel in Cruden Bay is now called the Cruden Bay Bed & Breakfast. The excellent restaurant that served The Red House is no longer open, but Ian Devenish still runs the B&B and I am sure the welcome remains one of the best in Scotland. Stay in Room #4 and you will be presented with an unmatched view of the mighty links - many late evenings I have sat silently with a whisky in that bay window.


I have also stayed in the Kilmarnock Arms Hotel. It is a favorite of visiting golfers and highly recommended. It has a nice bar and excellent restaurant.

The nearby city of Peterhead has many lodging and dining options and is an easy 10 minute drive after a round at Cruden Bay. I have played the links at Peterhead GC and it is worth adding to your itinerary, if you have the time.

Hidden Scotland: Cruden Bay Golf Club

The youth movement continues on the PGA Tour after another young gun takes down the field at Innisbrook. Maybe it was the tutelage of Billy Horschel in Zurich that propelled Sam Burns to his first win on the Tour or maybe it’s just that Burns is damn good. Few things beat the emotions of a Tour victory, or even in Michael Visacki’s case, just making it through the Monday Qualifier. Good stories abound in Florida this past weekend. As for your betting savants at NLU and Walk It In...

did not stay hot after cashing the winning ticket with Leishman/Smith, and fell back into the pouch with TC. He graced us with some wonderful art work of him and TC (TC, that middle part!). His picks were very middle part-ish this week with Conners, JT, and Reed all coming up short. Both Neil and Jeff agree, if Tyrell played those tickets were guaranteed to cash.

with a losing week also found the pouch, but he did cross the finish line on the weekend with one victory as Lewis Hamilton won the Algrave in F1 (wait, isn’t this a golf site?), but kudos to Randy for finding one winner. The golf picks didn’t do so hot, but he keeps bringing the positivity. That counts for some nuggies, right? Kick ‘em through the uprights this week, big guy!

couldn’t creep across even on the season with a 0-5 stretch last week. Uihlein didn’t carry over the magic from Zurich and Patrick Reed provided no weekend entertainment after missing the cut down the stretch at Valspar. Did anyone else see the camera on Phil during featured group coverage getting pissed at Reed taking his sweet time on 14?

with another winning week despite being on that same Patrick Reed bet with 

. Hovland and Tringale led the way with their top 10s even though Scottie Scheffler was a victim of the Sunday slide. Soly notes he’s in striking distance of 

 and is begging for a DK boost on Homa this week back to defend his title. Let’s go, Max!

wasn’t in the pouch this week with a Patty Tavatanakit Top 5 on the LPGA at +900 (I know another +900 cash this week too!). He dabbled on some NFL Draft fun that came up short along with his Glover, Grace, and Parel bets. He keeps a 300 nuggie lead on 

Speaking of, Jeff and Mark find themselves in a similar spot after Mark hit Villegas for a Top 20 at +900 this week. What a nice little chunk of change for Mark as he closes the gap on Jeff in the season standings. That was part of a nice 11 unit week for Mark. He’s feeling himself this week with a few more longshots, and Jeff seems to like where his head is at with his own set of longshots at Quail Hollow.

If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Jeff goes first at Quail Hollow.

I love a star studded field. Doesn’t mean I love the odds associated with those top players. I got some fliers this week, but all of them are bringing in a combo of distance off the tee and some Green In Reg proficiency from distance (Quail Hollow stretches to 7500+ yards). Can a couple young guys keep up their good form from recent showings? Can a couple guys who have been around the block rediscover the good mojo they’ve had at Quail Hollow?

: The last test for most of these guys before the PGA Championship in two weeks, this is quite a final test. Quail Hollow is very long as Jeff mentioned and there’s some trouble lurking off the fairways if they’re not careful. Additionally, a look back at the past few champions says putting is the statistic where the winners have gained the most strokes on the field. After all, you putt for dough amirite?

Do the bookies know more than Jeff? That’s obvious. But that doesn’t mean I think they’re right here. +275 for the guy who is top 10 in approach in this field and 25th in SG: Total in the last 36 rounds. At his age I want to make sure he’s rested from his move to downtown Atlanta.

Xander Schauffele Top 10 (+164) - 2 units

I like what Xander and Cantlay did at the end of the Zurich even if we’re talking about alternate shot. I want to see Xander refind that magic in the fall/winter where he was top 5 in a number of events. His profile is so solid across the board, and he’s 25th in driving distance + 27th in Greens in Regulation on the Tour this season.

Harman’s game feels a little disrespected lately at near 2-1 for a Top 20. His approach numbers have been off so far this season, but he hasn’t missed a cut since December. In that same time frame he’s got 4 Top 15s, and just took two weeks off. I like that he’s coming in here rested.

I don’t usually bet on Reed, but when I do, it’s in loaded fields with his back against the wall. He’s only played once since the Masters and it was a MC last week. I’m thinking that one of the best putters in the world will bounce back nicely this week. He has never missed the cut at Quail Hollow.

Hopefully over his little “slump” from March, Finau is 4-4 here with three finishes inside the top 28. He’s long off the tee, accurate with his long irons and 8th in overall putting average on TOUR this season. He doesn’t have to win, we just need a top 20.

I’m only wagering half of what Jeff is putting on this one, but I do still like it for the reasons he mentioned. He doesn’t have the course history here, but has the pedigree and form to get inside the top 10 on Sunday, something he has done in almost half of his starts this year.

I’m going back to the well with a few picks this week and Glover is the first. He shot a 69-65 last week before unraveling with a 77 on Saturday to finish T49, but I still feel great about his current game. In his last 16 rounds, he ranks 16th in this field in SG: T2G, 17th in SG: ATG and 22nd in SG: Putting. Winner here before and has had a number of other top 10’s.

Shoot, this feels like .75 units on fire doesn’t it? Statistics wise it sure would. I’m looking past this because Jason Day’s SG numbers from his last 36 rounds to his last 12 rounds are trending positive on approach and trending positive off the tee. Maybe he can flip the putter. McIlroy was featured at The Masters as a “don’t be late on this train” and I’m staying on it. He’s had just over a month with Pete Cowen and the talent is there. Maybe this train is just going to run me over, we’ll see.

Wise has shown some chops at Quail Hollow in the past with an 18th in ‘19 and a 2nd in ‘18. He’s like McCumber in the poor putting statistics, but the irons are above average and the off the tee game is his weapon. He’s 7th in GIR this season and 27th in distance. Prayers for putts please.

Joel’s approach numbers haven’t been solid lately, but he’s found success at Quail Hollow with a 2nd in ‘19 and 16th in ‘18. He finished DFL of those that made the cut after his first ever victory. And that was a miracle to make the cut after what I assume was some late nights doing some celebrating. He’s rested, tasted victory, and now goes to a place he’s played well.

A Quail Hollow member and resident of North Carolina, HVIII is in form having just finished T2 at the RBC Heritage. 24th this season in SG: T2G and 33rd in approach, he’s also putting better as of late, ranking 23rd in the field on the greens in his last 16 rounds.

Back to back weeks with Camilo?! Why not?! This really is a pick with my head and not just a reward for cashing my big bet last week. Villegas finished T11 at the Valspar to continue his real good run of form. In his last 16 rounds, he ranks 33rd in the field T2G and 6th in putting so you’re darn right I’m coming back for more.

Speaking of Villegas, I have another guy at 9/1 for a top 20 that I feel pretty good about and that’s Vaughn Taylor. He finished T6 last week at the Valspar, finished T13 at the last edition of this tournament in 2019 and he’s an excellent putter. Sign me up for all of that!

Webby lives on this course and has a consistent history here, but no wins. Could this be the one? He’s in great form, which is no surprise since he’s one of the best in the world, and he ranks 5th on TOUR the entire season in driving accuracy, 11th in GIR percentage and 18th in putting. Nobody has ever defended their title at the Wells Fargo, but that could change for Max Homa considering the form he carries. T6 last week is one of four top 10’s on the season and he won at The Genesis not too long ago. Over his last 16 rounds, he ranks 17th T2G, 17th in approach and 8th in putting.

Making Picks: Wells Fargo Championship

Golf and mullets, that’s what Australia does! Marc Leishman and Cam Smith had some serious mojo last week in New Orleans en route to an impressive, entertaining win in a playoff over the South African team of Charl Schwartzel and Louis Oosthuizen. A number of guys on the NLU/Walk It In team believed in the Aussies enough to bet on them and had great weeks because of it so let’s walk all that back before looking ahead to the Valspar!

was the big winner of the week, cashing a 14/1 ticket on Leishman and Smith and also hitting on a Gooch/Homa top 20! His losses were on Xander/Cantlay to win, Todd/Kirk top 10 and Chez/Glover top 20, but still a very good week as he continues to climb out of the early season hole.

also supported the Aussies and was handsomely rewarded! That was his lone win of the week, but when it’s a 14/1 winner, who cares?! He lost a trio of top 10 bets (Gooch/Homa, McDowell/Wallace, Todd/Kirk) and also a win bet on Jin Young Ko on the LPGA Tour.

 really enjoyed watching ‘Sunday Finau’ (and Cam Champ) tumble down the leaderboard to destroy his win bet on them as well as a top 10. He also lost top 10 bets on Todd/Kirk and Suh/Ghim to go winless in NOLA, but did cash a Nelly Korda top 10 to finish 1-4 on the week.

this week, womp womp. Tron had finishing position bets across three tours and none of them worked out unfortunately. Gordon/Thompson (PGA), Armitage (EURO), and Khang, Munoz and Boutier (LPGA) all let him down. Big Randy stuck to the PGA and LPGA Tours, but still went 0-5. Hovland/Ventura didn’t get the win and neither did Minjee Lee. Suh/Ghim, Ariya Jutanugarn and A Lim Kim didn’t finish in the top 10.

The unconditional Cam Smith love paid off big time for Jeff, but he only had them at 12/1, a slight discount from DJ and Neil. That was his only win of the week as Hovland/Ventura tumbled out of the top 20 on Sunday, Kisner/Brown missed the cut and Bubba/Scheffler and Bradley/Steele obviously didn’t win. Mark lost a modest one unit on the week, also backing Kisner/Brown as well as Grace/HVIII and Todd/Kirk. His wins were top 10 bets on Horschel/Burns and Hatton/Willett.

Now the TOUR goes back to individual stroke play and back to Florida, at Innisbrook Resort, where the fairways are narrow and odds (for some) are long!

If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Mark goes first at Innisbrook.

: We are back to stroke play events and back in Florida at Innisbrook, a narrow course with five par 3’s that aren’t easy and four par 5’s. The length of the course and size of the fairways will force a lot of players into less than driver off the tee, which gives people longer approach shots and decreases the GIR percentages. For that reason, I’ll be looking hard at success from 175 yards and further, around the green and on the green. Scores at this tournament are never through the roof so if players can play the par 5’s well and hold their own on the other holes, they’ll do just fine. Course history is also big for me, but it’s a little harder to gauge without a tournament last year.

One more test after this week at Quail Hollow, but no one on the tour is overlooking this test since it was cancelled due to COVID last year. This course is a true test of a player's complete game because no one category over indexes here. I’m going to shift my focus to the SG: T2G stat this week, and identify guys who play well on approach from 200+ yards. With long Par 3s and scoring on Par 5s being important I want a few laser shows with the irons.

My top guy this week, Hoffman checks every single box coming into the week. He’s playing great with just one finish outside the top 18 since March and in his last 16 rounds, he ranks 2nd in the field in SG: T2G, 4th in SG: Approach, 11th in SG: Around the Green and 17th in SG: Putting. He’s got lots of experience on this course as well and should feel real comfortable given where his game is.

My guy Paul Casey, I can’t quit him. His MC at Harbour Town can be forgiven considering his excellent form before that, and he’s the two time defending champion here (2019 and 2018). Among the best players in the field, he is strong in almost every statistical category I’m targeting this week.

Another popular pick of ours this season, his odds are too short for me to play to win, but I do still think he’ll do well and 2/1 for a top 10 is cool with me. 1st in the field in T2G, 2nd in approach and 13th in putting over his last 16 rounds. Has been one of the best golfers on TOUR this year.

Grillo’s stats also jumped off the page when I was doing my research. He’s not good around the green, but he is 2nd on TOUR for the entire season in GIR%, 16th in approaches from 175-200 yards and 9th in approaches longer than 200 yards. He’s also in good form, going T11-T21-MC-T6-T2 his last five starts.

He’s in pretty good form with a T19-4-T33 in his last 3 and is generally a very accurate player. Over his last 16 rounds, he ranks 18th in the field T2G and 38th in approach. He also finished T13 here in 2019.

Kokrak is in a really good spot from a long term stat profile (last 36 rounds) but he’s showing some really good form in the last 12 as well with his approach game (12th in the field). He has back to back top 10s here, even though his 200+ yard approach number isn’t the sharpest.

Goochy mane is bringing some of his best work to Innisbrook with his irons (he’s 2nd in the field in his last 12) and I think he can make some noise this week. Top 20 isn’t anything crazy, but three top 20s in his last six is pretty impressive so I’ll take Gooch to keep the pedal down.

He’s veteran enough and accomplished enough to shake off that losing water ball in Sunday’s playoff against Leishman and Smith and he’s playing really well. In his last 16 rounds he is 7th in the field around the green and 2nd in putting and he has excellent history here: T2 in 2019, T16 in 2018 and T7 in 2016.

My boldest position play this week by far, but something about Villegas’ last few starts have me thinking I can’t pass up on the number here. In three of his last four starts he’s gone T8-T17-T25 and has been very good around the green and with his putter.

I mentioned some things already that I love about Charley, but here are some more: he’s 38th this season in GIR%, 37th in rough proximity and 24th in approaches between 175-200 yards. With Justin Rose, I’m betting on the number more than the player as he is too good and playing too well recently to be 50/1 in this tournament. I learned my lesson with Koepka in Phoenix and others recently, when I see a number this big for a player of Rose’s caliber, I’m on it.

Articles

Making Picks: The Memorial Tournament

Making Picks: Charles Schwab Challenge

Making Picks: PGA Championship

Making Picks: AT&T Byron Nelson

Hidden Scotland: Cruden Bay Golf Club

Making Picks: Wells Fargo Championship

Making Picks: Valspar Championship

Making Picks: Zurich Classic

Hidden Scotland: The Golf House Club, Elie

Young Hitters: Welcoming Meghan MacLaren

Making Picks: RBC Heritage

Making Picks: The Masters

Making Picks: Valero Texas Open

Hidden Scotland: Anstruther Golf Club

Making Picks: WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play

Young Hitters: Welcoming Lakareber Abe

Making Picks: Honda Classic

Hidden Scotland: The Fringes of Scottish Golf