30 JUNE 2021 - WALK IT IN
Walking it Back:
Happy 4th of July weekend to everyone out there! Enjoy the weekend on a golf course, body of water, backyard bbq, or wherever you’re celebrating. For some on the PGA that is the city of Detroit for this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. Let’s recap last week’s showing from the NLU and Walk It In side before turning our attention to this week.
Congrats to Nelly Korda on a huge win at the Women’s PGA Championship. She weathered it all (including Lizette Salas’ remarkably slow pace) to win the two horse race over the weekend. And let’s use that to shoutout Neil for a heck of a pick on Nelly Korda at 14-1 to win. What a huge week for Neil to cut the Randy chain that was dragging him down and breach! 14-1 on Korda AND Madelene Sagstrom 5-1 for a top 20. Both hit for Neil, and that gives him honors over the rest of the crew this week.
Soly was the other to find paydirt with Korda’s victory, and he double dipped on a +188 Top 10 ticket on Korda so he was handsomely rewarded for her fine play this weekend. The rest of the card (namely Matt Wolff) was a bit of a tire fire, but he and Neil were all over the LPGA this week and it paid off mightly!
DJ and TC both found a winning ticket on Madelene Sagstrom’s Top 20 along with Soly and Neil. Madelene deserves a shout out as the NLU Young Hitter continues to show her prowess on the LPGA Tour. DJ didn’t have much else doing this week, but the 5-1 Top 20 on Madelene is a really nice win this week to stay out of the red.
As mentioned, TC was on Madelene for a Top 20, but missed the other bets this week. He does stay in the green and within striking distance of Soly!
On the other hand The Franchise stepped in for Randy this week, and was oh so close to hitting Leishman for a win bet at 70-1. Leishman missed the playoff by a stroke after a hard charge on Sunday. The Homa, Hadley, and Finau bets never stood a chance and sank the same way Randy has down the leaderboard. With Neil’s big week Randy is going to need a miracle this summer to climb out of last place.
On the Walk It In side it was Jeff who sneaked out a winning week thanks to Sam Burns +275 getting into that Top 20. The rest of the card was a bit spotty thanks to Streelman blowing up on Friday. Mark had a losing week, but not by much. Thanks to Bubba hanging on for dear life down the stretch for a top 20. That bet was nearly minted until the bogey train hit across the final five holes for Bubba. Tough for those with a win bet on him.
This week we’re in Jeff’s home state of Michigan. What kind of magic can he bring to another undercard event?!
If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Mark is away and goes first at Detroit Golf Club!
Mark: The last two years of this tournament have proven that Detroit Golf Club is one of the easiest tracks to be played on TOUR, with the winners shooting 25 and 23 under par. The fairways are wide and the rough isn’t penal so driving accuracy doesn’t concern me at all. Instead, I’ll be looking at scoring average, birdie average and even eagle average as there are three reachable par 5’s here. Putting is also important because you’ll fall behind quickly this week if you’re not draining your birdie putts.
Jeff: Bryson and Wolff playing well here last year setup the US Open showdown as well. Bombers that are going to hit it a mile and just play the lie. It’s a shorter course with the full slate of par 5s. Last year we saw the winner at -23(!!!) so it’s a birdie fest. I’m looking for distance off the tee and birdie or better % as my key stats beyond SG: Approach this week. I might sneak in the putter volatility this week and find a few guys with a hot flat stick or a guy or two with a dreadful one and hope to catch some magic.
Inside the Leather
Bryson DeChambeau Top 10 (+105) - 5 units
The first ever recorded five-unit play on Walk It In! Bryson is a massive favorite in this event and is the defending champion after tearing this course apart en route to -23. He ranks 1st on TOUR off the tee, 30th in putting, 7th in scoring, 1st in eagles and there’s so much more I could add. I love him this week.
Joaquin Niemann Top 20 (+125) - 2 units
A modest two-unit play here, the wide fairways in Detroit will be easier to find for Niemann and from there, his scoring can skyrocket. He’s already 8th on TOUR in scoring and 18th in birdies and that’s with a 130th ranked driving accuracy. This course sets up very nicely for him as evident by his T5 in 2019.
Doc Redman Top 20 (+225) - 2 units
Here’s a guy who is playing well, having made five straight cuts with two of those being top 10’s. He also likes Detroit Golf Club because he finished 21st last year and runner-up in 2019. I’m not going to overthink this - I’m just going to expect 2.25x my investment here.
Sepp Straka Top 20 (+275) - 1 unit
My Austrian olympian! If you listened to this week’s podcast already then you know I’m using that to beef up Straka’s street cred, but he was T10 last week at the Travelers and has 11th and 8th place finishes in his two years at the Rocket Mortgage.
Jason Kokrak Top 20 (+163) - 2 units
My first masher on the board this week is also the best putter in this field in the last 36 rounds. Kokrak has two wins this season and that putter is a big part of the success he’s found. He can get scoring opportunities and make the most of those. He needs to if he’s going to get to -20.
Will Zalatoris Top 20 (+163) - 2 units
Thin to win! Will Z has quieted down from his torrid pace earlier this year, but his stats show that he’s still performing. He hasn’t been at the top of leaderboards in a while, but he’s world class compared to this field. He pours in birdies (although his putter is an adventure), and he has the distance.
Bryson DeChambeau to Win (+775) - 1 unit
Doc Redman to Win (+5500) - .5 unit
Sepp Straka to Win (+8000) - .25 unit
Win bets on three of the guys I like most this week, highlighted of course by Bryson. We don’t generally advocate for making win bets on odds this short, but if you feel good enough about something then there are spots to do it (see: Rahm at the US Open, DJ in November’s Masters). Bryson is definitely, maybe going to win this week. If he doesn’t, I love the long odds on Redman and Straka.
Sepp Straka Top 10 (+650) - .5 unit
One more Straka bet for good measure! I highlighted his finish last week and success at this course, but he is also more than .6 strokes per round better putting on Poa Annua greens. Given how well he hit his irons last week, if he gets into scoring opportunities, he can convert them.
Garrick Higgo Top 10 (+450) - 1 unit
He’s a household name now with his win down in SC the other week. He’s got a really nice game that was showing up on the European Tour as well. I like his distance this week to be another asset, and I think his momentum carries over this week. He only missed the cut by a stroke last week at TPC River Highlands.
Cam Davis Top 20 (+450) - 1 unit
This one is truly a flier. Cam Davis hasn’t been sharp lately but he is a bomber. He busted onto the scene at AmEx earlier this year in Southern Cal, and I think that those are vibes he can find again on a course he can bomb it at. He’s 16th in distance on tour this year so maybe it’s a shot to deploy the Bryson strategy.
Mav McNealy Top 10 (+650) - 1 unit
I love Mav on a shorter course. He plays well at Pebble Beach and these shorter courses, and Detroit Golf Club should fall in that same category of short courses because it’s flat and the ball should run out for days. He’s actually got some distance too - let’s see the club twirls this weekend, kid!
Will Zalatoris to Win (+2500) - .5 unit
Already profiled Will, so let’s get some win equity here as well.