07 JULY 2021 - WALK IT IN
Walking it Back:
Detroit Golf Club is one of the easier courses on the PGA Tour, but that doesn’t mean our bets did any better! Congratulations to Cam Davis on winning the Rocket Mortgage Classic in a playoff over Troy Merritt and Joaquin Niemann. Let’s walk back our picks before looking at the John Deere Classic!
Neil kept it simple and made just two plays last week, on Bryson DeChambeau to win and his boy Chez to finish in the top 20. Bryson, of course, had his caddie Tim Tucker leave the night before the tournament and that bet was a loser before it even started! Wait til you all see what Neil has in store with Chez this week!
We’re going to lump DJ and Randy together this week because they both went 1-4 and both had the same winning bet, on Lauren Coughlin to finish in the top 20 for a whopping +450! DJ also bet on Bryson to win last week and some other losing position bets, while Randy was on Will Zalatoris in Detroit and Lee6 on the LPGA Tour, among others.
Speaking of Zalatoris, Tron had a win bet on him as well that lost, but he did hit a juicy 4/1 top 20 on Hank Lebioda. TC finished 1-4 with his other losses on Mark Hubbard, Robert Streb and Anne Van Dam.
Soly went 0-5 last week, but maintains a BIG lead on the rest of the field as we run out of weeks left in the season. He, too, was on Bryson to win as well as Max Homa and was also on Kokrak, Zalatoris and Higgs to finish in the top 10.
For the Walk It In guys, Mark got killed by Bryson and caddiegate just like Soly, Neil and DJ. Of course Tim Tucker quit the week he put five units on one play for the first time in Walk It In history! Jeff had a winning week again thanks to Cam Davis and Jason Kokrak top 20’s!
Now we turn our attention to TPC Deere Run and The Renaissance Club for the John Deere Classic and Aberdeen Scottish Open, respectively. Our last tuneup before The Open!
If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Mark is away and goes first at TPC Deere Run!
Mark: TPC Deere Run is a very similar setup to what we saw last week in that it’s short and easy with wide fairways and lots of scoring opportunities. Last week I predicted that Joaquin Niemann would have no problem in Detroit despite being 130th in driving accuracy and he went 72 holes without a bogey before losing in a playoff. Same story here so I’m targeting accuracy with the irons/wedges and putting on these slower-than-average greens.
Jeff: I’m happy with last week so I’m taking an ain’t broke don’t fix it approach this week. This course is short like Detroit Golf Club, and it’s another birdie fest. I’ll stick with those on the top end of the birdie or better % on the PGA Tour and look for a mix of hot putters and MIA putters to see if I can get some luck.
Inside the Leather
Aaron Wise Top 20 (+125) - 2 units
Wise has two top 10’s and three top 20’s in his last five starts so he’s in really good form and he’s extremely accurate as he ranks 9th on TOUR in GIR% this season and 22nd in SG: T2G. He’s 127th in driving accuracy, which is slightly better than Joaquin Niemann, who had no problems on a similar course last week, so that is not a concern at all for me.
Hank Lebioda Top 20 (+225) - 2 units
Another guy I love this week, Lebioda has a T4 and T5 in consecutive weeks and I’m hoping he continues his hot streak. He’s got four top 20’s in his last five starts overall and ranks 24th in GIR% and 37th in putting this season.
Pat Perez Top 30 (+150) - 1 unit
Perez was T14 last week at Rocket Mortgage and T10 at the Palmetto Championship a few weeks before that - both easier courses with weaker fields. In his last 16 rounds, he ranks 27th in the field in SG: T2G, 22nd in SG: Approach, 24th in SG: Around the Green and 12th in SG: Putting.
Zach Johnson Top 20 (+125) - 1 unit
ZJ’s history here is simply too good to pass up for ANY kind of action so here we are, even if this is a pretty public play. He has a win and six top 5’s in the last 10 years at this tournament, which is crazy. As our friends at NLU like to say, the home game model is through the roof right now.
Kevin Streelman Top 10 (+225) - 1 unit
I like Streelman on short tracks. It’s another opportunity to play at a place where he’s played well in the past, and he’s bringing a really good game with him this week. He’s 3rd in this field T2G in the last 12 rounds, and 53rd in birdie or better %. Not to mention, he’s a wedge maestro.
Doug Ghim Top 20 (+250) - 1 unit
I’ve picked Ghim before, and he’s let me down. Like Mark said on the pod, I have my guys and I’m probably close to hooking a Ghim car to this train. He hasn’t cashed yet for me, but this could be a good week. His putter has been horrendous so I need some magic there.
Hank Lebioda Top 3 American (+800) - .5 unit
After a T4 and a T5 among all nationalities the last two weeks, I’m going to take the juicy 8/1 number he can finish as a top American at the John Deere too. In his last 16 rounds, Hank ranks 14th in this field in SG: T2G, 2nd in Putting and 29th in SG: Approach.
Scott Stallings Top 20 (+335) - 1 unit
I’m not sure I’ve ever bet on Scott Stallings before so welcome to my card! He finished T25 last week at the Rocket Mortgage and has a pretty good history at the John Deere, going 18-MC-5-16 in his last four tries. He’s 36th in GIR% and 31st in SG: Approach this season.
Aaron Wise to Win (+4000) - .5 unit
Hank Lebioda to Win (+5500) - .5 unit
The two guys I love the most this week, at very long odds given their form and statistics coming in. Aaron Wise ranks 6th in the field in SG: T2G and 13th in SG: Approach over his last 16 rounds. That form and his results just doesn’t add up to his 40/1 number. Same goes for Lebioda at 55/1.
Mito Pereira Top 20 (+500) - 1 unit
Mito, pal, I butchered your last name on the pod. I’m sorry, but let’s all be happy this week with a little contention leading into your Olympics bid for Chile with Niemann. Pereira has played well on the Korn Ferry Tour so I hope he can keep it going.
Sungjae Im to Win (+1400) - 1 unit
Aaron Wise to Win (+4000) - .5 unit
Mav McNealy to Win (+4000) - .5 unit
Three win bets this week. Mark pointed out that Mav is now connected to the train, and he almost paid off big last week with the Top 10. He came just short but played very well. I’ll trade that for a top 10. He loves short courses, and this fits the mold. Sungjae is finally back in good form after a poor run in late spring and into summer. He’s 27th on the birdie or better leaderboard this season so I’d love to see his putter continue to hold up. Lastly, Aaron Wise, who is on a great run of form. Mark and I are both eyeing him this week, and hope we can both bring it home.