24 JUNE 2021 - WALK IT IN
Walking it Back:
The US Open has come and gone and two of the NLU crew plus one Walk It In host correctly predicted the favorite Jon Rahm would take home the hardware. Let’s walk back last week’s picks before turning our attention to The Travelers Championship.
‘There’s nothing wrong with picking the favorite when you know he’s going to win’ - DJ Pie. DJ talking that truth after putting nearly a quarter of his nuggies on Rahm to win last week. He was also pretty heavy on Bryson and Kokrak, which didn’t work out, but a win is a win!
Tron dug himself a hole a few weeks ago, but bounced back nicely as he also bet on Jon Rahm to win. It was one of three win bets (Hovland and Finau the others) and then he lost top 20 bets on Fleetwood and Leishman, but a comfy, winning week for TC.
Soly went 1-4 this week and remains the Draft King after hitting a Brooks Koepka top 10 at +175. His losses were win bets on Morikawa and DeChambeau as well as a top 5 on Will Zalatoris and a top 10 on Marc Leishman. Look out for Soly’s coverage of the KPMG Women’s PGA this week!
Like many out there, Neil was hoping Xander Schauffele would break through and win his first major at Torrey Pines, but it wasn’t meant to be. That bet was part of an 0-5 card for Neil as he also lost top 4 Englishman bets on Poulter and Wallace as well as a top 5 bet on Patrick Cantlay and a top 20 on Max Homa.
Let’s talk about Big Randy, who we saved for last because, well, he’s now missed 25 straight picks and is in dead last by a good margin. We’ve all been there as gamblers to some extent so we’re all encouraging him to keep shooting, but he won’t be making his own picks for the Travelers as he pays off a Pouch of Misery. As for his US Open bets, he wasn’t THAT far off on his Rory and Morikawa win bets. He was further off on a 50 nuggie parlay, Garrick Higgo to be top South African and Matt Fitzpatrick to finish top 4 in a nationality prop. Keep your head up, Randy - we’ll get out of this hole soon, maybe.
It was a great Father’s Day for Mark as he celebrated another monster major week, finishing up nearly 13 units! Jeff called him the Brooks Koepka of golf betting podcasts and was proven right yet again after Mark hit bets on Rahm to be top 20 after Thursday and US Open winner as well as a Collin Morikawa top 20. Jeff didn’t have as good of a week at Torrey Pines, but he had been in excellent form and hopes to regain it at TPC River Highlands, the site of this week’s Travelers Championship.
If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Jeff is away and goes first at TPC River Highlands!
Jeff: The US Open might be one of my favorite tournaments but sheeeeesh I was ice cold on the betting card. I need to find that distance between me and Mark again on the season standings so I’m going back to what works on the course. Greens in Regulation. I want ball strikers and GIR savants this week. Short course so dial in those wedges and pour in the birdies.
Mark: Jeff wasn’t lying - I show up in majors! After a really good week at the US Open, I’m trying to keep it going at the Travelers by betting on accuracy and putting. This is a really short course and I anticipate lots of birdies so scoring average and birdie average matter this week too. As always, course history is big for me and there is a lot of data here to be used.
Inside the Leather
Sam Burns Top 20 (+275) - 2 units
Sticking with it. He had a sloppy front 9 on Friday and battled back to miss the cut by a stroke and a 12 foot putt on the 36th hole. His proximity and iron game is still really strong. Last week was a blip in my eyes, and I think he’ll be back to continue his winning ways from May.
Rickie Fowler Top 20 (+250) - 2 units
He hasn’t played here since 2013 but he was 13th then and 13th in 2010. He’s coming off a Top 10 and a T11 at Memorial. He’s been putting in the work, and his numbers in all categories are improving in his last 36 and last 12 round splits. This is some really good value.
Kevin Streelman Top 10 (+300) - 1 unit
Streelman has rattled off a number of Top 20s and Top 10s in a row. He’s on quite a heater in the last five tournaments. He’s so steady at short courses thanks to an accurate driver and being 20th overall on the Tour in GIR%. All his SG numbers are trending in the right direction too. It could be a big week for Streelman.
Brain Harman Top 20 (+100) - 2 units
Harman is someone who is extremely accurate off the tee, ranking 32nd in driving accuracy this year. If he has his irons and wedges dialed in, he’s also 17th in putting on TOUR so I expect him to make a lot of birdies this week and be right up there in contention on Sunday.
Rickie Fowler Top 20 (+250) - 2 units
Jeff nailed his handicap on the head with this one. I love the way Rickie is trending and think this is some really good value for a top 20 bet. Congrats are also in order as he just announced a pregnancy!
Rickie Fowler (-114) over Adam Scott - 1 unit
We mentioned why we like Rickie this week and he is in much better form than Adam Scott recently, who has gone 54-MC-T16-T35 in his last four starts. In their last 16 rounds, Fowler ranks 24th in the field in SG: T2G while Scott ranks 68th.
Bubba Watson Top 20 (+175) - 2 units
The all-time money leader at this event and 3x winner, this is purely a course history play for me. He’s not in the best form the last few weeks, but did have a really good April and May and obviously loves TPC River Highlands.
Emiliano Grillo Top 20 (+250) - 1 unit
One of the most accurate golfers on the PGA Tour, Grillo is a perfect fit for shorter courses like this one. He is 2nd on TOUR in GIR% and 1st in proximity. He’s never missed the cut at River Highlands and finished 2nd at Harbourtown earlier this year, which is another short course.
Abraham Ancer Win (+2500) - .5 unit
Emiliano Grillo Win (+6600) - .25 unit
Aaron Wise (+8000) - .25 unit
Three pack of winners this week. It’s the GIR% and accuracy for me with Ancer and Grillo. They’re elite with their irons through the bag, and should put themselves in serious position for birdies this week. Ancer is 25-1 because he actually makes putts. Grillo, less so, but you got to bet on the wild swings of a putter and hope to catch lightning in the bottle.
Wise is a really interesting one to me. He’s not super accurate with his driver, but is 8th on tour in GIR%. He’s just like Grillo where you need to catch the hot putter. I would rather put my money on an 80-1 ticket with a really strong iron game and hope the putter follows suit.
Matchup Parlay (+1928) - .5 unit
Ancer over Niemann / Fowler over Scott / Wise over Tringale / Burns over Redman / Casey over Cantlay
Ancer, Fowler, Wise, and Burns have all been covered. Casey loves this place and is a consistent top performer. Maybe not a winner, but a top performer. I like his overall game and he flashed it again in tough conditions at Torrey. 19-1 is a juicy number, but 5 matchups is no small task.
Keegan Bradley Top 10 (+400) - 1 unit
I love the New England guy this week almost as much as he loves this course. Keegan missed the cut here last year, but made nine straight before that, including a 2nd place in 2019. He’s been inside the top 30 in every tournament since March except for his MC at the Memorial and I think he’ll keep it rolling in Connecticut.
Brian Harman Win (+2000) - .5 unit
Keegan Bradley Win (+4500) - .5 unit
Rickie Fowler Win (+6000) - .25 unit
How about three win bets on the guys I love most this week?! Harman loves this course and over his last 16 rounds ranks 25th in the field in SG: T2G and 15th in putting. Bradley also plays great here and is playing really good golf (5th in SG: T2G and 9th in SG: Approach over his last 16 rounds). I don’t want to miss out on a Rickie Fowler win, especially at this price given his improvement the last few weeks.