02 JUNE 2021 - WALK IT IN
Walking it Back:
It was a relatively ho-hum tournament at Colonial with Kokrak and Spieth both limping to the finish line on Sunday, and despite CBS trying to pretend someone else could win it was always going to come down to those two. Jordan had 3 days of spectacular golf and one stinker.
Let’s let Soly take the honors on the tee this week after hitting the outright Kokrak winner. He entered the week just under 500 nuggies back from TC, and a 35-1 winner is a really nice way to close that gap. But he didn’t stop there. He had the hard charging Poulter for a top 20 (one of CBS’s guys they wanted to create some drama with) that cashed nicely over the weekend. Atta boy, Soly.
TC, on the other hand, kept the card tight this past week. Some say he was too hungover to do the research, but when you’re playing with a lead you don’t need to attack pins. Center of the green, boring golf - Neil knows about that! He took Kisner, Palmer, and Westwood this week for Top 20s, but none of them had the stuff to contend.
DJ stays sandwiched between the boys and can’t really figure out which way he wants to go. He’s got the anchor that is Big Randy pulling him down, but he can’t quite fly with TC and Soly. He went heavy with Willy Z to win the tournament and his grouping at Colonial, but Willy Z was sluggish from the start. Sungjae continues to be pedestrian with the irons and never flirted with the top 10 bet. Harry Higgs dashed the rest of his card at Colonial, and Neil couldn’t find paydirt with Patty Tavatanakit at the Bank of Hope Match Play.
Free Willy! Randy managed to beach Neil and himself with the Willy Z play to win this past week. It was a made cut, but I don’t think I saw a single shot of him on the broadcast this week. Randy did come very close to Danielle Kang top 4 at Bank of Hope this week, but she fell to eventual champ Ally Ewing in the Quarters. One more for our guy came up just short as Spieth managed to save bogey on 18 to lock in a two stroke victory for Kokrak instead of the three stroke +600 payday.
Most weeks you could blindly write the pouch in for Neil, but he breached for the PGA with two winning bets, and this week he stayed off the 0fer. It was only one, Scary Gary, but that did get him some nuggies in his pocket. His other picks, Morikawa Stallings and Conners didn’t play poorly, but none of them couldn’t muster up some West Texas magic. We’ll chalk the Braden Grace WD as some bad luck for Neil.
The Walk It In boys had another nice week with Jeff taking home near-double digit units and Mark breaking even. It was a flipped script from the PGA so the two of us are looking to find the magic in the same week. There’s some overlap on the card this week so we’re sinking or swimming together!
If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Mark is away and goes first at Colonial!
Mark: It’s all about accuracy for me this week and it gets accentuated with Jack’s renovations bringing more bunkers and lots of trouble. The majority of my card features golfers with excellent driver accuracy as well as GIR and sand save percentages. Course history is still something I’m considering because Colonial won’t be completely foreign to these guys, even after so many renovations.
Jeff: Jack wants to beat these guys up just the same way he beat up Mark and our buddies at Pinehurst No. 9 the other month. He’s got a history for a tough track that challenge you if you can’t find the fairway. I’m taking fairway finders, and one guy who can hack it out of the rough better than most guys. All of my guys will need to bring a good tee to green game with the usual focus on approach, and I’ll be looking for a few guys who feel comfortable here even with the renovations.
Inside the Leather
Corey Conners Top 20 (+100) - 1 unit
Pretty soon we’re going to need to release a spinoff of Walk It In called ‘Why We’re On Corey Conners This Week’ because he makes almost every card of mine/ours. After a T20 last week to keep his season rolling, he ranks 12th on TOUR in driving accuracy, 7th in GIR% and 8th in SG: Off The Tee.
Charley Hoffman Top 20 (+163) - 2 units
Another repeater for me, but after a T3 last week, why would I go away from Hoffman now? He’s been in incredible form with eight top 20’s in nine events since March, he’s 30th on TOUR in SG: OTT and 5th in SG: Approach. Let’s keep riding the momentum.
Matt Kuchar Top 20 (+200) - 1 unit
The course has been renovated/redesigned, but it’s not going to be completely unfamiliar to these guys and Kuch has some excellent history at the Memorial. He won the event in 2013 and has four top 20’s (with two of those being top 5’s) since then with only one MC. He’s 23rd this season in driving accuracy and if he happens to miss the green and find himself in some of the new sand traps, he’s 12th on TOUR in sand saves.
Emiliano Grillo Top 20 (+163) - 1 unit
Jeff likes to bet on this guy, but I’m going to take a turn this week because I love how he’s playing and he has some decent history here. Grillo’s last six starts on TOUR have gone T6-T2-MC-T14-T38-T8, he’s 33rd this season in SG: OTT, 9th in SG: Approach and 3rd in GIR%. He also has three top 25’s in this tournament.
Rickie Fowler Top 20 (+188) - 1 unit
Yup, I want it. I’m buying the shares after that Top 10 at Kiawah. What a perfect time to show form as he goes back to a course he’s played well at in his past. Just do it Rickie. Everyone wants to see you back on top. For Rickie it’s been mostly desert for the past year. Let’s find the oasis.
Corey Conners Top 10 (+225) - 1 unit
He’s a machine, and Mark has already laid the groundwork. I’m even more bullish on Corey this week.
Doug Ghim Top 20 (+250) - 1 unit
Doug has made this list before, but he’s coming off a quiet T14 last week. His accuracy numbers off the tee are strong (37th on Tour), and his approach numbers have stayed consistent in the 36 and 12 round splits. His putter is so bad - I’ll grit my teeth and hope we make it there.
Billy Horschel Top 10 (+300) - 1 unit
Billy boy! He’s played really well here in the past with multiple top 15s, and done so relatively quietly. I think this season continues to be a good opportunity for him to show he’s finding some new form as he reaches his mid thirties. His driver is 41st on tour in accuracy, and his pedestrian approach numbers are improving going in the past 3 rounds.
Jordan Spieth Top 5 (+400) - 1 unit
Jordan Spieth To Win (+1650) - .5 unit
Jordan Spieth FRL (+2800) - .5 unit
How about THREE bets on the ‘golden child’ this week at the Memorial?! Everything seems like it’s set up for a big week here as he has four top 10’s in his last five starts, he has a great track record at Colonial and he putted the ball much better last week at Charles Schwab. We’re going to try and score BIG with a top 5 bet, win bet and first round leader bet for good measure, as he ranks 9th on TOUR in round one scoring and was T1 after one last week.
Collin Morikawa To Win (+1600) - .5 unit
Charley Hoffman To Win (+5500) - .5 unit
Morikawa won a tournament on this course last year and while it wasn’t set up quite like the Memorial, he’s got the game to win here this week. There is nobody better in golf with their irons as he ranks 1st in SG: Approach and GIR% this season. I rattled off a bunch of reasons earlier on why I love Hoffman and while he may not have a stellar history at Colonial, he’s playing too well to pass up on this number. If he’s in contention on the weekend, he’s got the experience and demeanor to grab a win.
Will there be a playoff? YES (+400) - .5 unit
Golf has been so exciting this season as a fan and I have a feeling in my stomach that we see a phenomenal Memorial tournament that could very well end up in a playoff. The quality of the field is super high and there are so many golfers talented enough to win big tournaments right now. I’ll take a Spieth/Morikawa playoff, please!
Max Homa Top 20 (+400) - 1 unit
The stats don’t look good of late. He tore up the west coast, won at Genesis, and now with two straight missed cuts he’s 4-1 for a top 20? Give me that. He’s not been accurate this year as he’s gained distance off the tee, but I like good players to bounce back from a couple missed cuts.
Colin Morikawa to win (+1600) - .5 unit
Bryson DeChambeau to win (+1800) - .5 unit
Joaquin Niemann to win (+3300) - .5 unit
Keegan Bradley to win (+4500) - .5 unit
Four pack this week of winners. Morikawa won the Workday here (not as tough of a challenge as The Memorial), but he’s as accurate with his driver as he is with his impeccable irons. Keegan is in a similar mold, playing well this year, and has played well in the past at Muirfield. Niemann takes us to a slightly different mold with the last two where he has good history here, but isn’t the most accurate driver. Then there is Bryson, he isn’t accurate off the tee at all, but when the rough is long he’s got the power to make up where other players struggle. Oh, and he’s won here before.