26 MAY 2021 - WALK IT IN
Walking it Back:
This season has given golf fans so much already and last week was no exception at the PGA Championship as 50 year old Phil Mickelson hit bombs and hellacious seeds for four straight days to become the oldest major winner in PGA TOUR history. Lefty shocked everyone in Kiawah Island, but maybe an even bigger surprise than him winning at 250/1 was every NLU expert winning at least one bet! Let’s walk those back before turning our attention to the Charles Schwab Challenge.
Tron had the best week of the bunch thanks to a great three-man matchup parlay at +561 with Niemann over Matsuyama, Spieth over DeChambeau and Ancer over Hatton. His losses were a couple of top 5 bets (Fleetwood and Finau) and a couple of top 10 bets (Zalatoris and Smith).
How ‘bout Neil with two wins this week?! He nailed a couple of top 20 bets on Will Zalatoris and Keegan Bradley for a positive week while missing on Berger to win, Fleetwood to top 20 and Bryson to miss the cut.
The only guy in the group with Phil Mickelson exposure was Big Randy, who bet him to finish top 40. What could have been if he stretched that a little bit further! That was his only win of the week as Randy lost two matchup parlays, Cam Smith to win the PGA and Madelene Sagstrom to win on the LPGA Tour.
Soly had a 2-3 week by hitting Corey Conners and Keegan Bradley top 20’s. Did he follow Mark’s picks on Walk It In?! Soly put half his nuggies on Jordan Spieth to top 10 last week, which didn’t work out, and he also lost a Cam Smith top 10 and Viktor Hovland win bet.
DJ had to go outside the sport of golf altogether to find a win this week as Max Verstappen won the Monaco Grand Prix at +130! His golf bets didn’t go as planned as Spieth, Berger and Rory let him down big time.
A pretty good week for the Walk It In boys as Jeff finished about even thanks to 7.5 units on Louis Oosthuizen and Charley Hoffman top 20’s. His win bets didn’t go as planned, but not a bad week! Mark had a great week and won over 6 units in Kiawah thanks to top 20’s on Ancer, Conners and Bradley as well as Joaquin Niemann easily taking top South American and Hovland easily beating Schauffele.
Now we all ride this momentum to Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas for the Charles Schwab Challenge!
The Approach
If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Jeff is away and goes first at Colonial!
Jeff: The week after a major always hits hard. So much excitement, build up, and then we’re back to another ho-hum course and tournament. Even with so many top flight guys here this week that played at Kiawah, I’m going to move further down the card this week for my picks. I want guys who have the experience at this course, and bring the approach and OTT game with them.
Mark: We’re at a completely different course than we saw last week at Kiawah Island. Colonial Country Club is “only” a 7,200 yard par 70 with small fairways, thick rough and lots of trees so my card will rely heavily on accuracy off the tee as well as greens in regulation. As Jeff mentioned, tournament history favors experience and all but one of my golfers this week have played here before as a pro.
Inside the Leather
Jeff’s Picks:
Emiliano Grillo Top 20 (+175) - 2 units
I was very impressed by Grillo’s bounce back after shooting a 77 on Thursday, rallying to make the cut, and going -2 on the weekend. He’s played well at the comp course here (Harbour Town) and his stat profile still looks strong in the 36 round and 12 round splits. He should do more than just contend for a top 20.
Charley Hoffman Top 20 (+175) - 2 units
We all have a horse we like to ride, and my Hidalgo this week is Charley Hoffman. He’s played this course twelve times and made the cut eleven times. He was 2nd in the field last week in SG: Approach and his putter let him down from really getting into the mix. I like the form and familiarity for Charley.
Mark’s Picks:
Abraham Ancer Top 20 (-110) - 2 units
Fresh off a phenomenal bogey-free 65 Sunday at the PGA to cash a top 20 bet, I’m back to the well with Ancer. He’s from Texas so it’s basically a home game and he’s one of the most accurate golfers on TOUR, ranking 2nd in driving accuracy and 12th in GIR% this year. He hasn’t finished worse than 26th since late February, either.
Corey Conners Top 20 (-110) - 2 units
Speaking of going back to the well, the most underrated golfer in the world led the PGA Championship after round one and hung on for another top 20. Conners is 10th on TOUR in driving accuracy, 8th in GIR% and finished T4 at the RBC Heritage recently, which is played on a similar course (Harbourtown).
Charley Hoffman Top 20 (+175) - 1 unit
After a T17 last week, Hoffman is rolling with 10 straight made cuts and he’s finished outside the top 20 only twice in that span. Over his last 16 rounds, he ranks 3rd in this field in SG: T2G and 7th in SG: Approach. He also has extensive experience at Colonial.
Will Zalatoris Top 20 (+120) - 2 units
The only player on my card without PGA experience at Colonial, he’s too good not to bet on this week, especially at plus money for a top 20. Zalatoris had an impressive T8 last week, is 13th on TOUR this season in GIR% and 9th in the field in SG: T2G over his last 16 rounds.
Joaquin Niemann Top South American (+115) - 1 unit
Jeff is high on Emiliano Grillo this week so he’s probably rooting against this play, but I’m riding with my guy Niemann again this week to beat Grillo, Munoz and Vegas. Niemann doesn’t have the accuracy off the tee that Ancer and Conners do, but he is 14th on TOUR in GIR% and 2nd in scoring so it doesn’t matter to him.
Double Breaker
Jeff’s Picks:
Jason Kokrak Top 10 (+350) - 1 unit
Kokrak hasn’t missed a cut in eleven straight stroke play events in 2021, and has played here three times. Last year he came in 3rd in a loaded field coming off the COVID break. I think Kokrak’s game is well rounded enough with the flat stick and through the bag to contend this week.
Emiliano Grillo to win (+4000) - .5 unit
Billy Horschel to win (+3300) - .5 unit
Charley Hoffman to win (+3500) - .5 unit
Patrick Reed to win (+1600) - 1 unit
I’ve covered the guys at the top this week already with Hoffman and Grillo. Horschel is intriguing to me because I think he’s continuing to make the case for a Ryder Cup inclusion. The guy strikes me as an “I won’t be denied” type and I think he continues to put it all out there week after week. He was T23 last week in a tough setting, and has performed solidly here before. At the bottom of the card is Patrick Reed. He’s a Texan with the all around game we’ve profiled here plenty of times. He played last year after having not played here for a few years. The reworked schedule gives guys the chance to revisit where they play and he wanted to play here...that says something.
Mark’s Picks:
Doc Redman Top 20 (+400) - 1 unit
Hasn’t had the strongest season, but is playing better lately and finished T9 in his last start at the Byron Nelson. Over his last 16 rounds, Redman ranks 13th in the field in driving accuracy and 41st in GIR%. I’ll take some of that at 4/1 for a top 20.
Abraham Ancer to win (+1700) - .5 unit
Corey Conners to win (+1900) - .5 unit
Ryan Palmer to win (+5000) - .5 unit
Chris Kirk to win (+5500) - .5 unit
I told y’all why I love Ancer and Conners so much and you knew I’d put down a win bet on each of them after hearing why. I also like two longshots in Ryan Palmer and Chris Kirk. Colonial is Ryan Palmer’s home course and he has some very good history here with four top 6’s in the last 10 tries. He also has three MC’s, but the familiarity and success reigns supreme at 50/1. Chris Kirk won this event in 2015 and was playing some pretty decent golf up until two recent missed cuts. He’s 37th on TOUR in GIR% and 27th in this week’s field in driving accuracy over his last 16 rounds.