Fantasy/Gambling Insights

Horses for Courses

Adam Scott (12/1) – With everyone slurping all over Rory (and for good reason), Scott’s being overlooked a bit. Valhalla is a marvelous fit for his game (long and straight off the tee, murders long irons, putting seems rather straightforward).

Henrik Stenson (25/1) – He’s going to win one. Basically I like dudes who drive the ball long, straight, and hit the shit out of their long irons. That’s Stenson/Sergio/Scott territory.

Gerry Lester Watson, Jr. (35/1) – Despite being public enemy number 1, it’s not hard to see why Gerry is a great fit for Valhalla. It’s a long course, and favors a right to left ball flight off the tee. He hasn’t played great since the Memorial, but on a course with three par 5’s and plenty of space for him to move the ball around, I’m terrified enough to hedge my happiness with a wager.

Mark Leishman (40/1) – A silent killer. His last five starts he’s finished T11, T8, MC, T5, and T3. He’s long, he makes a ton of birdies, and he’s hot. We’re a bit divided in house on this one, but rolling with it.

Value Fliers

Jimmy Walker (55/1) – If you’re looking for a long hitter who favors the right to left ball flight, and some value, look no further than Mr. Walker. He’s gone unnoticed since his winning spree in the winter, but he’s been quietly very solid all year, with 11 top 26 finishes in his 14 starts since his win at the AT&T.

Lee Westwood (66/1) – Value. He’s had a horrific year, but he just shot a final round 63 at Bridgestone, is very familiar with this track and knows his chances are dwindling and chipping doesn’t seem to be a huge premium here.

Gary Woodland (85/1) – Just sticking with an NLU horse that bombs it. He prefers the left to right ball flight, but we’re making an exception from him and staying loyal to a guy we’ve been picking all year.

Bob Karlsson (100/1) – Was one of the most impressive Euro’s during the Ryder Cup here, and his recent form is tidy. The Big Swede is long and features a delicious pedigree prior to his time in the wilderness. Big Game Bob is back!

Brooks Koepka (165/1) – T4 at the U.S. Open, and had a very hot start to the British Open that had me sending screen shots of the 200/1 ticket I had on him (that I immediately regretted when he imploded on the back nine on Friday). You’d think Brooks would command more respect from the oddsmakers, their loss. Also, NoLayingUp essentially invented him.

Honorable Mentions & Fantasy Fodder

In case you haven’t heard, that Rory guy is trending. And Valhalla sets up GREAT for him. We just can’t advise riding with the overall favorite, especially when the odds are 5/1. That’s some Tiger-in-his-prime like respect, and he deserves it. If it rains at all, I’d consider making a play on him even at this price. I don’t love the value of Keegan (at 25/1), but he’s trending and his game is perfect for this track.

We love Sergio and Rickie of course, but at 16/1 and 20/1 respectively, it seems the market has adjusted appropriately to their sizzling hot runs. Sergio has finished runner up in his last three starts, but the Kentucky atmosphere has me a bit worried for Sergio’s dancing mind (the crowd was not too friendly with him back in ’08 at the Ryder Cup).

The Fringe

  • A sincere apology is in order for our turning a blind eye to last week’s Reno-Tahoe Open Barracuda Championship, the crown jewel of opposite field awesomeness. Looking at the results, one can’t help but be impressed by Geoff Ogilvy’s victory in the Stableford competition. Much like Bruce Willis’ character in The Sixth Sense, Ogilvy’s been seeing dead people for the last few years (peep his stats!) and returned for one last goal – to win the Barracuda Championship. After he won on Sunday he came to the same realization as Dr. Malcolm Crowe, Willis’ character in the movie: he’d been dead the whole time (my guess? Sabo probably killed him after Ogilvy beat him by a stroke in Kapalua for his last victory in ’10). Seriously though, Ogilvy won the event and vaulted all the way up to 84th in the FedEx Cup standings. That speaks volumes about the dark places he’s seen recently.

We saw dead people last week in Reno.

  • Speaking of seeing dead people, Kyle Stanley was in the black for Strokes Gained Putting for the second week in a row, picking up over a stroke on the greens for the week in total. Here’s hoping KFS can get some momentum going into the Web.com playoffs and get back to being a bomb-threat for the ’14-’15 season.
  • After watching some of the weekend coverage from Firestone, the Tour may need to look at bringing in a dude with a tranquilizer gun to patrol the grounds during no-cut four round events. Watching a guy who’s 30 shots off the pace going through the motions just so he can collect the $40,000 last place WGC paycheck is a blight on an otherwise exemplary event. Nobody benefits from it. Shoot the guy with a tranq-dart, drag him off the course, get him his $40,000 check, and he wakes up on his private jet. Problem solved.

  • One can only hope we see the pride of Louisville, Papa!, patrolling the grounds this week, creeping on chicks and slinging free pizzas. The ‘Ville is a fascinating place.

Papa’s in the house!

Enjoy the week and catch us on twitter during coverage @NoLayingUp.

(Cover photo courtesy of www.pga.com)