21 APR 2021 - WALK IT IN
Walking it Back:
Stewart Cink was back in the winner circle last week, and pumped faked his putter to a runaway win at RBC Heritage. Shout out to Soly having the winning ticket in Cink at 100-1! Winner, winner chicken dinner on a 5 nuggie play netting out 500 nuggies for the new Draft King. He wasn’t the only one with an outright winner as DJ hit with Lydia Ko at the Lotte Championship at 11-1 with a 10 nuggie play. Two outright winners in a week and both Ko and Cink didn’t even really make it interesting Sunday - the NLU5 are cooking!
Neil, had a nice play on Conners to Top 20 and hit with 20 nuggies, and DHR rules cut the winnings on Ancer Top 20 but it wasn’t a loss! As they say at the blackjack tables, a push is a win.
We touched on DJ’s win with Lydia Ko, but the rest of the card didn’t show up. He and Jeff both had some exposure on Morikawa, but the opening birdie fell quickly from the sky for Collin as he limped to the finish line.
It was a near 600 nuggie (!!!!) weekend for Soly who found some magic with the Cink family, took short odds on DJ’s top 20, and double dipped on Cink with a top 10 cash and an outright winner. That’s Draft King level performance right there. I wonder what Soly wants to call his future course at the World Golf Hall of Fame?
Tron gave up his crown again and fell back with an 0-5 weekend. Insult to injury for TC. He went around the world with his five plays and missed across the LPGA, PGA, and Euro Tour. You don’t mind losing the crown to a weekend like what Soly had, but you can’t add to that gap with a -100 nuggie week.
Randy continues to look for answers on how he’ll climb this leaderboard (maybe a 100-1 play this week??) but Cam Smith cut into his winnings with a dead heat race payout on the top 10. He did find a nice win with Morikawa at +110 for 25 nuggies. The LPGA didn’t produce any winners for TC or for Randy this week. Stay the course fellas!
As for the Walk It In boys, Jeff snuck out of Harbour Town with a slightly positive week to edge Mark again. Cameron Smith going from +275 to -114 with the DHR was a real killer, but Chris Kirk and Cam Smith carried a solid week. Mark has another shot at the green this week with some sneaky good plays. On to the cards!
If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Mark goes first at TPC Louisiana!
Mark: On one hand, fewer players and teams might make this tournament easier to handicap. On the other hand, the different formats (best ball and alternate shot) make it very hard to predict. I’m going to try and predict which teams have great chemistry, are in good form and are very good putters (particularly on bermuda greens). While this isn’t a Ryder Cup or match play, this format seems like it will come down to which teams take advantage of birdie and eagle opportunities when other teams can’t.
Jeff: It’s hard to put a finger on an event like this with multiple formats and so many different possible outcomes. Team chemistry, bombers, ball strikers all would be solid picks to go with this at TPC. I’m going to take one of each. Team bomber, team mojo, and team no putt (iron strikers with no putter in the bag). It feels like the format could lend itself to many so let’s roll with it.
Inside the Leather
Varner III and Grace Top 20 (+100) - 2 units
HVIII finished 2nd last week at Harbour Town and has played relatively well this year while Branden Grace won in Puerto Rico two months ago and has also been in good form. Both of these men are great putters and rank in the top 30 in their last 16 rounds in SG: putting (HVIII 17th and Grace 28th).
Todd and Kirk Top 10 (+225) - 1 unit
Brendon Todd hasn’t been fantastic this season, but he has been consistent with only one missed cut since November’s Masters. His teammate this week has been very good lately, finishing T7 last week and T6 the week before in Texas. Kirk has very strong all-around stats the last 16 rounds and Todd is the 2nd best putter in the entire field on bermuda greens.
Horschel and Burns Top 10 (+225) - 1 unit
The polarizing Billy Horschel - maybe he’ll capitalize on the new ‘popularity’ bonuses at the end of the year. He’s been playing very well lately, but most importantly he clearly loves this course as he’s won it as an individual in 2013 and on a team in 2018. His teammate Sam Burns is an LSU guy so he’s gotta have some familiarity with TPC Louisiana. The cherry on top is how good they both are on bermuda greens. Burns is 4th in the field in strokes gained on bermuda while Horschel is 17th.
Hatton and Willett Top 10 (+225) - 1 unit
I have no idea if these two are friends, but they are both Englishmen in the top 10 of the European Ryder Cup standings, have been playing well, and played in the same pairing Saturday in Hilton Head so that helps! Tyrell Hatton is the more world-class player and in his last 16 rounds ranks 18th in the field in SG: T2G and 9th in approach.
Brown and Kisner Top 20 (+138) - 2 units
Team mojo pick #1 is the childhood friend and duo, Scott Brown and Kevin Kisner. Both guys aren’t coming in with strong form, and long courses aren’t the speciality for either. Yet they’ve had success as Mark pointed out. This is as “mojo” focused as you can get. The form doesn’t back it up, but forget the swing thoughts and enjoy a walk around the park with your pal!
Hovland and Ventura Top 20 (+120) - 1 unit
Team mojo pick #2 is the Okie State duo of Ventura and Hovland. This pick is a hope that Ventura gets a little magic rubbed off from Viktor, and Young Hov plays outside his mind. +120 for these two and +138 for Brown and Kisner feel too short. I’m going to parlay team mojo with Vegas knows.
Brown and Kisner Top 10 (+400) - 1 unit
Brown and Kisner to win (+6000) - .5 unit
Admittedly I don’t know too much about Scott Brown compared to Kisner, but these two friends remind me of Will Ferrell and John C. Reilly for whatever reason and this week, they’re going to shake and bake their way to a big result for us. In three previous appearances as teammates here, they’ve finished 2nd, 15th and 5th and this tournament is just what the doctor ordered for two golfers who aren’t in the best form.
Horschel and Burns to win (+2500) - 1 unit
I’ve already got the top 10 ticket on this team and think they have a very good shot at winning, too. If Horschel/Burns and Brown/Kisner have a good week, so do we. Let’s go!
Team Aussie Smith / Leishman (+1200) - .5 unit
Team No Putt Bradley / Steele (+4500) - .25 unit
Team Bomber Watson / Scheffler (+1600) - .5 unit
Three more win bets here fill out the card. The two Aussies bring in a combo of good form and familiarity. 12-1 to win is short but I like these two guys these week and they figure to be very popular one and done picks. On team no putt we’re taking forearm anchor extraordinaire, Keegan Bradley and the laser show that is Brenden Steele’s driver. They won’t putt well, but they’ll have a few kick ins with their tee to green game...I hope! And my bombers this week is the old grizzled vet Bubba Watson and Scottie Scheffler. Watson won this event before there was team play and ranks 37th in distance this year. Scottie does know what that’s all about and checks in at 31st this year in driver distance. I think they have a great chance to contend.