31 MAR 2021 - WALK IT IN
Walking it Back:
How awesome is match play, huh?! Golf fans were treated to two great tournaments last week, highlighted by the always unpredictable WGC-Dell Technologies match play, won this year by Billy Horschel. In Punta Cana, Joel Dahmen got his first career TOUR win at a hefty 45/1 score for one of our own! Let’s walk back everyone’s picks before taking a look at the Valero Texas Open.
DJ Pie hit it big with Joel Dahmen at Corales, risking 10 nuggies to win 450 and make a huge climb up the season standings. It’s always nice when you can pick the winner! His four bets in Austin didn’t go as planned, but whatever, right?!
The Beluga has still not breached and Neil is still looking for answers. He tried one parlay, tried another that completely faded the first one, then tried a third and a fourth parlay. Wouldn’t you know it, they all lost. He stays in the pouch of misery, but will have to pay his debts next week due to travel. Maybe he’ll encounter a psychic during his travels, who knows. He definitely doesn’t!
Soly got his week started nicely with a Rahm/Cantlay day 1 matchup parlay that hit, but faded the rest of the weekend as Westwood, English and Cam Smith all failed to make it out of group play and Cam Smith obviously didn’t win the tournament.
Big Randy went 0-5 on a mix of PGA and LPGA bets. He took Max Homa over eventual champion Billy Horschel on Wednesday, Jason Kokrak to win his group and Viktor Hovland to win the tournament. On the LPGA Tour, Yealimi Noh failed to finish in the top 5 and Lee6 missed the cut, which is not the top 10 he was hoping for.
Tron is still the Draft King, but his lead seems to be shrinking by the week. His SUPER HEINZ missed and so did two other parlays he tried. At Corales, TC bet on Tyler McCumber to win and he finished T18, which wasn’t quite good enough. He’s starting to feel Soly and DJ breathing down his neck!
Mark is currently ice cold, losing over 7 units last week between group winners, tournament winners and matchups. Patrick Reed, Paul Casey and Jason Kokrak really let him down. Jeff is currently carrying the water for the Walk It In guys, but even he lost half a unit last week. Most of his money was won on the matchups, but he whiffed on his tournament and group winners as well.
Now we collectively lick our wounds and gear up for the Valero Texas Open, the last tune-up before Augusta National. Dustin Johnson was a late WD, but we still have some stars in San Antonio and a lot of value down the board. Good luck!
If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Mark hits first this week at the TPC San Antonio.
Mark: TPC San Antonio is almost 7,500 yards with narrow fairways so driving accuracy is going to be important, but there aren’t nearly as many hazards as the Florida courses featured. We’ve seen some of the longer hitters on TOUR succeed here so SG: Off The Tee seems like a great stat to hone in this week. As always, success with the irons should lead to scoring and I’ll also be looking at SG: Approach and GIR%. Rickie Fowler hasn’t done any of these things well this season - can he overcome that and sneak into next week’s Masters?
Jeff: Match play is behind us and so are Pete Dye courses for now. This is the final chance for some guys (cough Rickie cough) to qualify for the Masters next week. Some top names are taking a tune up and some lower guys are fighting to keep the card and find that first win (congrats, Joel!). This week we see a premium on off the tee (distance is 7400+) and approach (as we always see). Uniquely this week is the focus on SG: Around the Green. So I’m going to focus on the best SG: Tee to Green guys. Those previous three combine to build the T2G number (I’m looking at the last 16 rounds) so that will be the main indicator for me in my greens book this week.
Inside the Leather
Cameron Davis Top 20 (+200) - 2 units
One of my top plays of the week, I love Cameron Davis here. Didn’t play so well during the Florida swing, but all the potential hazards on those courses wasn’t ideal for his inconsistencies off the tee. That said, his ball striking is excellent, ranking 7th in this week’s field in SG: Approach over his last 16 rounds and he is 13th in SG: T2G. This course is more his style and I expect him to play well.
Keegan Bradley Top 20 (+200) - 1 unit
It feels like he’s flying a little under the radar, especially in a weaker field like this, but he’s in pretty good form (four top 30’s in his last five starts) and his tee-to-green numbers are great. If he can hold his own on the greens this week, I expect him to contend.
Brendan Steele Top 20 (+200) - 2 units
If you listened to the pod, Jeff’s handicap on Steele was an A+ and I’m riding right along with him on this play. In his last 16 rounds, he’s 12th in the field in both SG: OTT and SG: Putting. Finished T3 at the Honda Classic and in 32 rounds played in the calendar year, only two have resulted in a score above 72.
Rickie Fowler Top 20 (+275) - 1 unit
His back is against the wall. Nobody believes in him right now. He’s going to miss the Masters. While I’m rooting for him to win and earn that last-minute spot at Augusta, I don’t think it’s going to happen, but he can still play well enough in this field to get some TV coverage on the weekend and finish in the top 20. Do it for the fans, Rickie!
Ryan Palmer Top 20 (+125) - 1 unit
Palmer has played pretty well all year and has very good course history with four top 10’s at TPC San Antonio. Over his last 24 rounds, he ranks 27th off the tee, 22nd in approach and 19th putting. Finished T17 at The PLAYERS and went 2-0-1 in match play last week before losing to Jon Rahm in a playoff.
Brendan Steele Top 20 (+200) - 2 units
Steele has continued to play well this year with 8 straight made cuts and 50% of those have been T21 or better which is basically what they’re saying with these odds. I’ll take this course fit for him and say it’s even more likely than what the odds say. He’s 18th in the field in SG:T2G in the last 16 rounds and has a very accurate driver (49th this season) and 48th in SG: ATG.
Abraham Ancer Top 10 (+225) - 2 units
Love Ancer this week. He’s another accurate driver of the golf ball (2nd in the PGA Tour this season) and brings the 5th best SG:T2G of the field in the last 16 rounds. He played well at WGC last week, and has been T22 or better in three of the last four. He’s been profiled by us before as being laser-like with the irons. Plus, home game for the San Antonio local.
Keegan Bradley Top 20 (+200) - 1 unit
We’ve seen bad putters figure it out before when they hit a stroke of luck (Morikawa at Concession), and I like the idea that Bradley figures it out. He has a rare blend of accuracy and power with the driver that fits the Conners mold from his win in 2019. Bradley is 8th in this field in SG:T2G so I’ll hope he avoids the Sunday slide he’s seen in two of his last four tournaments.
Brendan Steele to win (+4100) - .5 unit
Cameron Davis to win (+4100) - .5 unit
Two guys I already have top 20 bets on, I think they are pretty undervalued to win as well, especially in this field. Steele’s form and performance has been better overall, but they are both capable of a big payday if it all clicks for them in San Antonio.
Scottie Scheffler to win (+1400) - 1 unit
Ancer to win (+2000) - .5 unit
I profiled Ancer already, and dropped the home game nugget for Abe. I like Scheffler for a lot of those same reasons this week. He’s like Bradley in that he has such a great weapon with his driver that is both deadly accurate (25th in PGA Tour this season) and a bomber (33rd). Yeah it’s a 4 hour drive from his home in Dallas to San Antonio, but he played great last week. I’m a little worried all those rounds wore him out, but he’s a young gun. Go get it Scottie!
Fowler over Dahmen (-109)
Ancer over Matsuyama (-103)
Kirk over Griffin (-103)
Parlay (+653) - 1 unit
All three guys are the “underdogs” in their matchups. Love it. Rickie is such a wild card, but I really think Dahmen, rightfully so, is going to party for that first win. Enjoy it, Joel! You’re in the Masters next week already so I think this is more fading Dahmen. I’ve told you about Ancer, and Chris Kirk checks in as 4th in this field in SG:T2G in the last 16 rounds.