18 AUG 2021 - WALK IT IN
Walking it Back:
Playoffs! Yes, we’re talking playoffs this week, but before we break down the Top 125 descending upon Liberty National let’s walk those bets back from last week.
Let’s start with the newest member of Young Money, DJ Pie, who, along with Big Randy, donned a few face tattoos thanks to being in the pouch. It was tough luck for DJ Pie and for Jeff this week who both had Henley to win at 30-1 and those costly bogies down the stretch. It was a sea of red this week for DJ, and Neil continues to distance himself for third. Look out for DJ’s AIG Women’s Open pick this week *eye emoji* as he tries to reel Neil back in.
Speaking of Neil he didn’t have a good week either but he still has that nice cushion over DJ. He could’ve cashed that wire to wire winner if Henley came through so that’s now three guys here kicking Henley while he’s down. Besides that Webb and Harman came up short on the win bets and a slimmed down #ChezFest didn’t hit his Top 20 nor did Fowler. Neil just has to keep the distance from DJ because the other chaser isn’t even in view right now...
Ah, yes, it was Big Randy who joined DJ in the pouch, and like he said in the preview this week, they really do a solid for the big man’s look. Five bets last week with win bets on Lebioda, Wolff, and Fowler and two Top 40s on Herman and Long to Top 40. All five guys missed the cut. And having been on that side of the draw before I can attest to few things being worse than no action over the weekend. Double pouch of misery.
Tron went BIG on big Bob Mac last week for 100 (!!) nuggies to Top 5, and it was not the big splash that he needed to chase down Soly. MacIntyre made the cut but was pedestrian all weekend. It’s going to take some miracles for TC to claim the top spot.
It’s a copy and paste matter week after week now as the undisputed Draft King, Soly keeps his distance. He doesn’t even really have to do much these days with the carnage already mentioned, but he did hit Brendon Todd Top 20 (+400). And despite the misses on Joel Dahmen and Seamus Power that lead doesn’t look to be going anywhere.
For the Walk It In boys, Jeff just missed his third winner of the season on Henley (close only counts in...yeah yeah you get it) but did pick up the Top 10. A slight miss on HVIII Top 20 and Sungjae Top 10 kept it from being a big week. Mark’s hit on Will Z Top 20 (+138) and took home the Sungjae matchup over Brian Harman. His week would’ve been different if Webb could have snuck into that playoff and won.
If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Jeff is away and goes first at the Northern Trust!
Jeff: Playoff golf and football is (almost) back - what a gambler’s dream! This week I’m not straying far from what worked well last week (approach + GIR%) in addition to the typical look at OTT numbers. I like a couple guys where the accuracy is less of their calling card, but their OTT numbers are hard to look past.
Mark: My grand plan here is to target short game savants this week at Liberty National as past tournaments and the setup have treated those players very well. Therefore, SG: Around The Green and SG: Putting are at the forefront for me with scrambling and GIR% right behind. I also took a look at recent form and course history from 2019 and the Presidents Cup in 2017.
Inside the Leather
Cameron Tringale Top 20 (+300) - 1 unit
The only thing lately that has held Tringale back is his driver. It has been a solid season for a guy who has been the stat darling of the PGA season. He’s great around the greens, and with the smaller greens this week he can excel with great irons and a solid wedge and putter game should he find trouble.
Abraham Ancer Top 10 (+275) - 1 unit
So hard to keep Ancer off the card this week. Is this course a little longer than I’d like for a guy like Ancer, yes. However, with his current form and game it’s not enough to keep him off the card. Everything, and I mean everything, in the long term and short term number of rounds is standing out with Ancer. A big run in the playoff could continue to launch Ancer’s game and golfer profile.
Scottie Scheffler Top 10 (+275) - 1 unit
Another young gun who is knocking on the door. I like how Scheffler’s combo of distance and accuracy off the tee stacks up this week. Two of the three Par 5s are attackable in two so I hope to see his all around game smother the scorecard with birdies this week. I also think Scheffler knows that a couple big weeks could mean a call from Captain Stricker.
Dustin Johnson Top 10 (+180) - 2 units
It has been a weird year for DJ. The stats haven’t added up to the odds we’ve been seeing for win bets, but the results are looking better and better for DJ. He’s got three top 10s in his last five events, and hasn’t had a run like that since last fall. This is a great time for him to turn it on.
Webb Simpson Top 20 (+138) - 2 units
Finished T7 last week despite being only one stroke back of the leaders and had a bad triple bogey on Saturday - what could have been! He’s been hot lately and has three career top 20’s at Liberty National. Webb ranks 15th on TOUR around the green, 2nd in scrambling and 25th in putting.
Adam Scott Top 20 (+200) - 2 units
Another guy THIS close to a victory last week, I’m confident Adam Scott will put that missed putt in the rear view and contend again in New Jersey. He won here in 2013 and finished T5 in 2019. More to come on Scott later…
Patrick Reed Top 20 (+200) - 2 units
He might be in the most inconsistent form of the golfers on my card this week, but Reed won this tournament in 2019 with his elite short game and can do it again in 2021. He ranks 12th in SG: ATG and 6th in putting this season on TOUR.
Ian Poulter Top 20 (+250) - 1 unit
We’re starting to get down to the final hours for golfers to make their case for the Ryder Cup and Poulter has not qualified yet so you know he’s going to be locked in for the playoffs. Playing excellent golf with two top 10’s in his last three starts and one of the best short games on the planet. Finished T10 here in 2019.
Seamus Power Top 20 (+500) - 1 unit
What a really interesting year for Seamus. He’s been in such a great run of form, and he even got his first career win at Barbasol a few weeks ago. Granted, last week at Wyndham wasn’t great but it was his first run in competitive golf since the win a month ago. I like all his stats this week from the tee to the green, and even in a competitive field his GIR% should compliment everything well to keep him in the mix.
Rory McIlory Win (+2200) - .5 unit
Daniel Berger Win (+2800) - .5 unit
Two win bets this week for two guys that I’m really excited about. McIlroy has been showing some much better form of late off the tee and with his irons. If he has the putter this week (which has been very high and low for him) he can certainly compete. 22-1 is a really nice payday for a guy of his caliber. Just a little lower down the board is Berger. He’s been playing so well this season, and from past player quotes, this course has some similarities to Pebble Beach. Which is where Berger won earlier this year. Best thing about Berger is his irons have been a thing of beauty lately and his overall game is right there with it.
Hank Lebioda Top 20 (+500) - .5 unit
He let me down the last time we played him, but I’ll go back to Hank on value here. 4th in scrambling this season, 26th in putting, 23rd in GIR% should be stats working in his favor this week and 5/1 is pretty solid value for a top 20.
Adam Scott Win (+4500) - .5 unit
Patrick Reed Win (+4500) - .5 unit
I gave most of my handicap on these guys earlier, but a couple other nuggets of note: Adam Scott is having a really sneaky good year putting, despite his miss in the playoff last week. He ranks 20th on TOUR in putting right now. Patrick Reed shows up more times than not when the stakes are high and fields are strong. In addition, he’s on the Ryder Cup bubble and could use one or two more strong starts.
Tournament Matchup Parlay:
Simpson over Schauffele / Spieth over DeChambeau / Berger over Thomas (+555) - 1 unit
Three guys that are still trying to qualify for the US Ryder Cup team over three guys already on it! I think Webb, Spieth and Berger are really strong picks this week at Liberty National and I’m not saying the other guys won’t do well, but I feel really good about this one.