14 APR 2021 - WALK IT IN
Walking it Back:
Most of the golf world was admittedly rooting for Jordan Spieth last week, but in the end it was a special, historic win for Hideki Matsuyama at The Masters, the first Japanese man to win a major. We had a little bit of everything at Augusta; top players missing the cut, other top players stumbling down the stretch, old veterans making a charge and a player without TOUR status taking solo 2nd. Let’s walk back everyone’s betting picks before turning our attention to this week.
The Draft King yet again! Tron hit a huge 9/1 bet on Marc Leishman to finish in the top 10, which gave him a massive lead in the season standings over everyone else. He missed his other bets last week, but who cares?! That bubbly sure looked good - cheers!
Soly was really big on Jordan Spieth and Sergio Garcia with mixed results. His biggest bet was on Spieth to finish in the top 10, which he did, but Sergio didn’t have the same success and they both did not win. He also had a matchup bet on DJ over Bryson and you just need to ask Mark how that worked out for him against Jeff.
Another Leishman supporter with Tron was DJ, who bet on him to be the top Aussie at +615! That was a big hit, which is a good thing because it was his only hit at The Masters. He missed on Spieth to win, Finau to win a group offered on Draftkings, DeChambeau to eagle in round one and a three-way matchup parlay.
Big Randy was also 1-4 this week as he went heavy on Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy with no success. He had JT to finish as a top 4 American and in a losing matchup parlay and then he went fairly heavy on Rory to win the whole damn thing! Randy did get two or more aces during the week for a nice consolation prize.
Arguably the most entertaining results of the week came from Mr. Content himself, Neil Schuster. His ass was back in the jackpot, or should I say the saddle, and he performed a stunning rendition of Savage by Megan Thee Stallion on TikTok. His bets were also stunning, but in a completely opposite way as he went 0-5 yet again. He had Mike Weir to make the cut, Matt Wallace to be a top 3 Englishman, Sungjae Im and Patrick Cantlay to finish top 10 and a four-man matchup parlay.
It was a brutal week for the Walk It In boys as well, as Mark put a ton of faith in Jordan Spieth (to win and be top 5 after round 1), Paul Casey, Joaquin Niemann and Adam Scott. The only bet he did hit was a top 20 on Corey Conners. It was a bloodbath for Jeff too, who hit on a Jon Rahm top 10, but lost everything else. Morikawa, Sergio, Fleetwood and Homa were among the golfers who let him down this week.
Now we get the Augusta pollen off our clothes and drive to Hilton Head, home of the RBC Heritage at Harbour Town Golf Links. Almost half of last week’s field made the trip for what we’re hoping is a great tournament coming off the high of Masters week.
The Approach
If you’re going to putt for dough it helps when you’ve given yourself more putts inside the leather than double breakers so where are the guys looking this week on their approach? Mark goes first at Harbour Town Golf Links!
Mark: I haven’t played a ton of ‘famous’ courses, but when I do, I like to tell people about it! I played Harbour Town Golf Links many years ago when I was still new to golf so it was extremely challenging and I can attest that accuracy off the tee is paramount on this narrow course. If you miss the fairway, your ball could end up behind trees, houses, alligators, who knows! My card will feature accurate drivers the most and then the iron players. Since the greens are considered to be not that difficult, putting isn’t too big of a concern for me this week.
Jeff: Just a short drive to the east from Augusta brings us to Harbour Town. We’re on the coast so sea breezes will play a factor, and datagolf shows us that accuracy off the tee (because distance is almost a non factor with one less par 5 and just over 7,100 yards) and around the green game are important metrics given the very small greens compared to PGA average. I’m waiting for a weekend that will never come where approach isn’t important so you can bet we’re checking that box. So let’s find low ball flight players who have good around the green game and an accurate driver. If you’ve crossed over well to the Sony Open or TPC Sawgrass I’ll keep that in mind.
Inside the Leather
Mark’s Picks:
Corey Conners Top 20 (+138) - 2 units
My favorite play of the week, Conners has been on a roll this season and especially the last month or two. In his last four events, excluding the Match Play, he’s got a solo 3rd, solo 7th, T14 and a T8 last week at The Masters. In his last 16 rounds, he ranks 7th in the field in SG: T2G and 6th in SG: Approach. He finished T21 here last year as well.
Paul Casey Top 20 (+125) - 2 units
As Jeff said on the podcast, I’m starting off my card with more conservative plays in an attempt to get back in the green. I keep going back to Casey because he keeps giving me no choice. His T26 at Augusta was his first finish outside the top 12 since November’s Masters! He is first in this week’s field in SG: T2G and 3rd in SG: Approach over his last 16 rounds.
Ian Poulter Top 20 (+225) - 1 unit
They give a tartan jacket to the winner of this event and you know the king of tartan pants would be thrilled to add that to his wardrobe. Poulter’s stats aren’t incredible this year, but he has been consistently placing in the top 20-30 all year. He also has a ton of good history at this course and finished T14 last year.
Kevin Streelman Top 20 (+250) - 1 unit
This guy usually finds my card on short, narrow courses and this week is no different. Streelman is 49th on TOUR this season in driving accuracy and 17th in GIR% so he’s extremely accurate and his driving distance won’t be a problem at Harbour Town.
Brian Harman Top 20 (+150) - 1 unit
Is Harman officially the top lefty on TOUR now? He’s made 15 of 16 cuts this season and is coming off a T3 at The PLAYERS, T5 at the WGC Match Play and T12 at The Masters. He’s 44th on TOUR in driving accuracy and ranks 33rd in SG: T2G his last 16 rounds.
Jeff’s Picks:
Chris Kirk Top 20 (+225) - 1 unit
64th in accuracy this year on the PGA Tour, and below average ball flight will make up a lot of my scorecard this week. I like that Kirk is top 15 in this field in SG: Around the Green this season, and comes in with a solid (although not stellar) approach game. He does a lot of things solid and I think he’ll be in the mix this week even though his showings here have been a little bit of a seesaw
Daniel Berger Top 10 (+275) - 1 unit
Anyone see Berger on every shot live play a bad lie into the sand on 12 into the sand again? The vibe king gave an awesome satirical fist pump after. I love the laid back, have-fun-with-it approach. He wasn’t stellar last week, but he’s riding a strong approach game (16th in the field in the last 16 rounds) and a really strong T2G game (8th in the field in the last 16. He’s top 60 in accuracy and has a low ball flight. The vibe king
Ian Poulter Top 20 (+225) - 2 units
Poulter has placed inside the top 20 in five of his last six appearances here. He’s a machine in certain places, and I don’t even think I can throw a monkey wrench in the Poulter machine. The stats aren’t really good anywhere here, but he’s an accurate driver with a low ball flight and a ton of success here. Follow those bread crumbs.
Cameron Smith Top 10 (+275) - 2 units
I wish I could take Cam in the OAD pools this week, but I’ve burned him already in match play in Austin. He’s doing everything well with the putter, the short game, the approach game, and off the tee. His stats jump off the page in every category. I can’t possibly mush this guy.
Double Breaker
Mark’s Picks:
Matthew NeSmith Top 20 (+400) - 1 unit
Born, raised and resides in South Carolina (go Cocks), NeSmith has extensive experience at Harbour Town and is accurate enough tee to green to do well here. He ranks 20th T2G in his last 16 rounds and 26th in approach. His putting is atrocious, but I’m not putting too much stock into that on this course. Finished T33 last year.
Michael Thompson Top 20 (+400) - 1 unit
Under-the-radar pick, but he finished T8 at the RBC Heritage last year and T10 in 2019. Over his last 16 rounds, he ranks 11th in the field in driving accuracy and 17th in GIR% so given all that, 4/1 for a top 20 seems so easy a caveman can do it!
Luke Donald Top 40 (+400) - 1 unit
I know Luke Donald isn’t very good anymore, but he loves Harbour Town and has had great success here over the years so let’s just make the cut, see if we can get into the top 40 and make 4x our money with this one. Six top 10’s here since 2010.
Corey Conners to win (+2600) - .5 unit
Brian Harman to win (+3000) - .5 unit
Already explained why these guys stand out to me this week, I think their odds should be lower than this so I’m putting a half unit on both to win and will likely choose one of them in my OAD pools. Let’s ride their form and accuracy to victory here!
Jeff’s Picks:
Doug Ghim Top 20 (+400) - 1 unit
Bermuda is where he finds his best stuff with the putter, but that’s not his only area of expertise. He brings a solid iron game and contended at a crossover course in TPC Sawgrass earlier this year. He’s 55th on the tour in driver accuracy, and has a top 25 approach game in his last 16 rounds amongst this field. 4-1 is great value.
Matt Fitzpatrick to win (+1700) - .5 unit
Daniel Berger to win (+2300) - .5 unit
Berger already got the profile, but Fitzpatrick is one of the larger spreads in terms of being best in accuracy with a really low ball flight. I think he follows the other guys across the pond like Poulter, Knox, and Donald who have all played well here. Decent value on both. Let’s roll!