Written by: Scott Schaeffer
It was another lackluster week for the crew in most cases, but a solid return for Big Randy now brings him ever closer to eclipsing DJ and strapped brother Neil in the standings. Picks for the playoff opener are highlighted below:
"THE READ": Had there not been an impossible run by Jim Herman over the weekend, DJ's loyal former troop of the Bob Parsons army would have given back DJ the lead he once had after Webb Simpson win at RBC Heritage. Still, Billy Horschel was able to cash the Top 10 bet to keep DJ from having a total loss at Wyndham.
The rib still hasn't shown signs of life at major championships...or really since the Tour resumed at Colonial. But, as DJ so rightly pointed out, he is Mr. PGA Tour. Also the only 2x winner of the FedEx cup title, as he will be defending that second title. WIth a win this week, he would be well on his way to a third. Just not sure where DJ sees the good form coming from.
DJ's last two picks have been familiar plays by the crew and both will need big weeks to move on to Chicago and the BMW. Harold Varner played well last week at Wyndham, finishing T7 after leading thru the first 18 holes. Still in search of his first Tour win. So too is Sam Burns, happy to be in the playoffs again after some solid results post-COVID break. The depth of this week's field leads to some solid potential payouts for guys like Harold and Sam who aren't necessarily the most consistent players in the field.
"THE READ": The Waka Flocka Flame puns may have given Sepp some bad vibes last week, as both he and Neil's staple Chez Reavie pick didn't even live long enough to keep Neil's interest over the weekend. A better would actually have been a little MC parlay.
This week Icarito's self-proclaimed strategy is to pick "short guys that just hit it good." Again, field depth is making those Top 10's look pretty juicy to Neil, actually making up four of his five picks. Xander, honest Abe, Lawddddd Tyrrell and Mrs. Longsocks make up Icarito's lineup of 5'8" flushers he expects to make the front page this week. The Chez top 20 isn't even worth wasting breath on at this point.
"THE READ": Thankfully still (somewhat) vertical, Randy was able to spill his only pick of the week next to his associate DJ Pie. Randy's consitently conservative picks has allowed him to continually make a slow indent into the lead that DJ and Neil had built. The strategy is certainly no different this week.
A full 100 piece nugget count relies on the only Champions Tour eligible player in the field this week: Phil Mickelson. He will need to beat possibly the most famous OWGR manipulator of our time in Alex Noren to give Randy a positive return this week. Alex has played well of late, though he can't boast the course history Phil can at TPC Boston. Of course, one of Phil's most famous flop shots of his career came from the right side below the 18th green here. Oh, you thought I meant Phil always plays well here? Psh. As Soly and the datagolf guys dicussed on this week's pod, Phil is only truly above average at that place down in Georgia. A poor performance from Phil this week will leave Randy feeling about as well as he did the morning after the recording of this week's video.
"THE READ": The curmudgeon has struck again, going against the grain by picking a Canadian 5-way instead of the Heinz 57 that garenered so much attention in previous weeks. Five separate matchups will be included in the Canadian play, which is honestly too cumbersome to break down given most would rather just see how the results pan out.
A couple young (maybe not super young) hitters make up a couple TC Top 10 locks of this week, with Max Homa at 20:1 to do so and Marc Leishman at 11:1. Leish has struggled uncharacteristically recently, likely baking in a lot of value in backing him on a course that typically plays closer to the firm & fast end of the spectrum. Leish is ever-capable of breaking his slump in an instant and jumping right into the thick of a chase for a title. Similarly, Tommy Fleetwood has been unable to shake off the rust stemming from the long break. You'd have to figure it is only a matter of time before something clicks for the distinguished Englishman as well. The Keith Mitchell play very well could be a result of a classic little game of eenie-meenie-miney-moe. Who knows where that came from...but I guess we are coming off a week where the 600-1 Jim Herman emerged victorious.
"THE READ": Soly's extensive research has not resulted in any level of success. What's even more irritating is that the undeniably "free-wheeling" approaches of the Strapped Boys have netted exponentially greater returns. The C-Suite may need to look into further budget cuts on the upcoming seasons as the Strapped Boys may not be so strapped any longer.
In order of their odds, Webber, yung Hov and Hungjae start Soly's search for improvement as the playoffs begin this week. Each of the three are known for their iron-play and Strokes Gained: Approach prowess. With Paul Casey and Phil and Chez as the only real threats, Soly is riding with Jon Rahm to finish as low Arizona St. Sun Devil this week, which is a play I love especially given it is still somehow + odds.
Finau is for sure not going to close it out this week, but respect to Soly for sticking to his guns. He is clearly displaying a desire to be there if the curse of Puerrrrrrto RRRRRRico shall ever be broken. The Boston (or really Norton/Providence/not Boston at all as TC pointed out in this week's TrapDraw) forecast is for more Finau disappointment this week.
"THE READ": Kiz has been absolutely rolling his rock of late and loves them dolla signs. He will come prepared this week on a venue where driving distance is not at a premium, again. P-Reed has won the Northern Trust in two of the last four years and I think he will be right there again this week. Webb almost won with about his B- game last week. Scary. At 30:1, I love his chances if he brings the A game with him this week. Jason Kokrak will need a Top 20/25 finish or so if he would like to move on to Chicago next week. If his injury isn't an issue, I think he's poised to do so after a solid Top 15 at Sedgefield last week. Back to the parlay board this week as well, as last week's parlay hit at +800, keeping my head above water.
The standings below are as of completion of play last week. I know they are not at all the same as the graphics that appeared in the video...but trust my accounting methods have been thorough and above board. If you like my perspective and want more content related to the crew's picks and year-to-date status, I can be found on twitter and instagram @total_misread.