NLU Picks and Preview - BMW
Written by: Scott Schaeffer
O Canada! By correctly predicting a 5-way Canadian bet at the Northern Trust, Tron is back in the mix and looking to catch a struggling group of DJ, Neil and Randy at the BMW this week. All picks are highlighted below:
"THE READ": As the lead has slimmed and the gap between first and fifth (sorry, Soly) has narrowed significantly, DJ is no longer shooting from the hip. Instead, his research indicates that Collin Morikawa might back up his second career MC with another win. Collin's T13 at the collegiate Illini Invitational will certainly give him the sturdiest of legs to stand on this week.
I must thank the Pieman for keeping it easy on me by bundling his matchups into a parlay rather than a TC Canadian/Heinz cluster of complication. It'll be all or nothing for DJ as he is backing a group of classy ball-strikers that can struggle with the putter on occasion. The prevailing thought is that unfamiliar greens, which will be the case for most at Olympia Fields this week, tend to neutralize poor putters. If so, the ball-striking prowess of Hideki, Morikawa, McRib, Billy Ho and G-dub should allow them to rise up the board in comparison to the stronger bosses of the moss.
"THE READ": The X-Man has been kicking the tires on contending again since his close call at Colonial. Three of his four wins on Tour have come in no cut events. Has no weaknesses and should translate well to a venue that’s new to almost everyone. The McRib has uncharacteristically struggled for a period of a couple months now, without even a backdoor Top 10 to boast about. Despite recent performance, Rors has the ability to flip the switch at a moment's notice, so investing in him at inflated odds compared to his norm is hard to knock. The same could be said for Patrick Cantlay, just to a lesser degree. Cantlay will need a much better performance than he's turned in of late if he intends to play in Atlanta next week (#37 in FEC standings).
Joel "good morning" Dahmen got into a twitter debate with the crew earlier this week about how many rounds it would take him to reach Dustin's total of -30 playing TPC Boston. Joel humbly answered 100...but given his form this year we think it would take him decidedly less than a triple digit total. Neil expects Joel to bounce back from his disappointing MC in Boston and make a run at qualifying for the Tour Championship via a top 5 finish this week. Notably absent from Neil's picks is Chez, who failed to qualify for this week's BMW.
"THE READ": Just like Jason Kokrak, Randy went all in 2020 last week by making one selection, backing Phil simply to top the alleged manipulator Alex Noren. Turns out the big guy did not have pocket aces...or kings...or queens.
Randy's reset this week led he and Neil to some similar conclusions. As Randy is hoping for a bounce back week, so too are Rory, Cantlay and Fitzy, all of whom make Randy's selections in some form or fashion. You've gotta appreciate the "if you fall, get back up" spirit the big guy is showcasing in those selections.
Finally, Randy expects the world's eldest 24 year-old in Scottie Scheffler to show some signs of fatigue this week, allowing Hideki to race past him up the leaderboard. Despite failing to reach the winner's circle in his rookie campaign to date, Scottie has all but clinched his spot in Atlanta next week via consistently strong form throughout the year.
"THE READ": Weeks of disappointing results were all washed away with a long-awaited Canadian cash last week. If you thought Tron would ditch the strategy after one week of going 5/5, then you don't know the TC way. Tough scene alert: the Canadian includes a fade of Tron's boy Scottie this week.
With some spending $ in his pocket this week, TC is donating 5 nuggets to the cause by picking the cursed Tony Finau to actually win this week. Not to mention the 5 nugget donation on a parlay of Woodland, Finau, Day and Adam Scott to all win their DK Sportsbook betting groups. The payout of +36350 is juicy...but I am confirming it'll never happen.
Max had a disappointing bogey on his 36th hole last week to miss the cut on the number, forcing him to sweat out his spot in the FEC standings all weekend. Now in the field, TC expects Max to play free from any expectations which could allow him to contend this week.
Wednesday's 7-club tune-up for Bryson could give him some competitive mojo before the tournament begins. A win on the venue where DeChambeau of course won his U.S. Am title would be less than shocking.
"THE READ": Webb and Jon Rahm contributed to a rare positive week for Soly at the Northern Trust. Still very much in the basement, Soly is turning towards a young star in Viktor Hovland to help him climb out. Hovland has now likely lost his strangehold on the Arnold Palmer award as ROY on Tour, yet still has a chance to reclaim the title from Scheffler if he can have a couple impressive weeks to finish out his rookie campaign.
A couple "hot tips" led Soly to take Hideki and Nick Taylor this week despite their struggles of late. Hot tips always work out well, so these picks are surefire. Like TC, Bryson makes Soly's list of selections this week. A MC last week is not enough to deter the C-Suite from backing the biggest of golfers and debatably the new needle.
"THE READ": My Kiz pick last week paid dividends, so why not go back to the well? He's a guy that is motivated by the sums of money at stake throughout the playoffs and thrives under the stakes. Surprised to see no love for Rahm this week from the crew, so I'll happily take him even though his odds are short. Agree with Neil's thought than Xander has been knocking on the door of late and is poised for a breakthrough. Also taking the coat-rack as it's put-up or shut-up time for his all-in claim. Will Jason hold 'em, or fold 'em like a cheap suit?
The standings below are as of completion of play last week. I know they are not at all the same as the graphics that appeared in the video...but trust my accounting methods have been thorough and above board. If you like my perspective and want more content related to the crew's picks and year-to-date status, I can be found on twitter and instagram @total_misread.